Extreme energetic electron fluxes in low Earth orbit: Analysis of POES E > 30, E > 100 and E > 300 keV electrons

Energetic electrons are an important space weather hazard. Electrons with energies less than about 100 keV cause surface charging while higher energy electrons can penetrate materials and cause internal charging. In this study we conduct an extreme value analysis of the maximum 3-hourly flux of E> 30 keV, E> 100 keV and E> 300 keV electrons in low Earth orbit as a function of L∗, for geomagnetic field lines that map to the outer radiation belt, using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) from July 1998 to June 2014. The 1 in 10 year flux of E> 30 keV electrons shows a general increasing trend with distance ranging from 1.8×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 to 6.6×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 8.0. The 1 in 10 year flux of E> 100 keV electrons peaks at L∗= 4.5 - 5.0 at 1.9×107 cm−2s−1sr−1 decreasing to minima of 7.1×106 and 8.7×106 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 and 8.0 respectively. In contrast to the E> 30 keV electrons, the 1 in 10 year flux of E> 300 keV electrons shows a general decreasing trend with distance, ranging from 2.4×106 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗ = 3.0 to 1.2×105 cm−2s−1sr−1 at L∗= 8.0. Our analysis suggests that there is a limit to the E> 30 keV electrons with an upper bound in the range 5.1×107- 8.8×107 cm−2s−1sr−1. However, the results suggest that there is no upper bound for the E> 100 keV and E> 300 keV electrons

Extreme relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt: Analysis of INTEGRAL IREM data

Relativistic electrons (E > 500 keV) cause internal charging and are an important space weather hazard. To assess the vulnerability of the satellite fleet to these so-called “killer” electrons, it is essential to estimate reasonable worst cases, and, in particular, to estimate the flux levels that may be reached once in 10 and once in 100 years. In this study we perform an extreme value analysis of the relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer radiation belt as a function of energy and L∗. We use data from the Radiation Environment Monitor (IREM) on board the International Gamma Ray Astrophysical Laboratory (INTEGRAL) spacecraft from 17 October 2002 to 31 December 2016. The 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=4.5, representative of equatorial medium Earth orbit, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 1.36 × 107 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 5.34 × 105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 2.05 MeV. The 1 in 100 year flux at L∗=4.5 is generally a factor of 1.1 to 1.2 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year flux. The 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=6.0, representative of geosynchronous orbit, decreases with increasing energy ranging from 4.35 × 106 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 1.16 × 105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 MeV−1 at E = 2.05 MeV. The 1 in 100 year flux at L∗=6.0 is generally a factor of 1.1 to 1.4 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year flux. The ratio of the 1 in 10 year flux at L∗=4.5 to that at L∗=6.0 increases with increasing energy ranging from 3.1 at E = 0.69 MeV to 4.6 at E = 2.05 MeV