Novel Approach to Estimate Osteoarthritis Progression:Use of the Reliable Change Index in the Evaluation of Joint Space Loss

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis-related changes in joint space measurements over time are small and sensitive to measurement error. The Reliable Change Index (RCI) determines whether the magnitude of change observed in an individual can be attributed to true change. This study aimed to examine the RCI as a novel approach to estimating osteoarthritis progression.METHODS: Data were from 167 men and 392 women with knee osteoarthritis (diagnosed using the American College of Rheumatology criteria) randomized to the placebo arm of the 3-year Strontium Ranelate Efficacy in Knee Osteoarthritis trial (SEKOIA) and assessed annually. The RCI was used to determine whether the magnitude of change in joint space width (JSW) on radiographs between study years was likely to be true or due to measurement error.RESULTS: Between consecutive years, 57-69% of participants had an apparent decrease (change &lt;0) in JSW, while 31-43% of participants had annual changes indicating improvement in JSW. The RCI identified JSW decreases in only 6.0% of patients between baseline and year 1, and in 4.5% of patients between the remaining study years. The apparent increases in JSW were almost eliminated between baseline and year 1, and between years 1 and 2 only 1.3% of patients had a significant increase, dropping to 0.9% between years 2 and 3.CONCLUSION: The RCI provides a method to identify change in JSW, removing many apparent changes that are likely to be due to measurement error. This method appears to be useful for assessing change in JSW from radiographs in clinical and research settings.</p

Health First: An evidence-based alcohol strategy for the UK

Alcohol is taken for granted in the UK today. It is easy to get hold of, increasingly affordable, advertised everywhere and accepted by many as an integral part of daily life. Yet, despite this, the great majority of the population recognise the harm that alcohol causes. They believe that drinking damages health, drives anti social behaviour, harms children and families and creates huge costs for the NHS and the Police. They are right. Every year in the UK, there are thousands of deaths and over a million hospital admissions related to drinking. More than two in five (44%) violent crimes are committed under the influence of alcohol, as are 37% of domesti c violence incidents. One fifth of all violent crime occurs in or near pubs and clubs and 45% of adults avoid town centres at night because of drunken behaviour. The personal, social and economic cost of alcohol has been estimated to be up to &pound;55bn for England and &pound;7.5bn for Scotland. None of this should be taken for granted. The impact of drinking on public health and community safety is so great that radical steps are needed to change our relationship with alcohol. We need to imagine a society where low or no alcohol consumpti on is the norm, drunkenness is socially unacceptable and town centres are safe and welcoming places for everyone to use. Our vision is for a safer, healthier and happier world where the harm caused by alcohol is minimised. This vision is achievable. But only if we tackle the primary drivers of alcohol consumption. The evidence is clear: the most effective way to reduce the harm from alcohol is to reduce the affordability, availability and attractiveness of alcohol products. It is not enough to limit the damage once people are drunk, dependent, ill or dying. We need to intervene earlier in order to reduce consumption across the entire population. The tools are available. The &lsquo;four Ps' of the marketing mix - price, product, promotion and place - are used by alcohol producers and retailers to increase their sales of alcohol. They can also be used by government to reduce alcohol sales, alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm. Alcohol taxes are an effective public health measure as they raise prices and suppress demand. However, if they do not keep pace with both inflation and incomes, alcohol products will become more affordable over time. This has been the case in the UK. Deep discounting by retailers has also driven down the price of alcohol and encouraged heavy drinkers to maintain dangerous levels of consumption. These problems need to be tackled by a combinati on of more effective fiscal policy and controls on pricing and discounting. Alcohol products are an extraordinary anomaly. Unlike most food products, they are both remarkably harmful and excepti onally lightly regulated. As with other toxic products, the product label ought to communicate the content of the product and the risks of its consumpti on. Regulation should drive out products that appeal to young people while also incentivising the development and sale of lower strength products. The pervasive marketing of alcohol products in the UK is indefensible. Current restrictions are woefully inadequate: children and young people are regularly exposed to alcohol adverti sing in both old and new media. Only a complete ban on all alcohol advertising and sponsorship will make a lasting diff erence. Licensing practice in the UK is out of date. The focus on pubs and bars has allowed shops and supermarkets to become the dominant players in alcohol sales. Consequently, alcohol is now more available than it has ever been. This has driven pre-loading: getting drunk on cheap, shop-bought alcohol before heading out to late-opening night life. Licensing must focus on public health and seek to control the overall availability of alcohol as well as the effects of drunkenness. Beyond these populati on-level approaches, many more targeted measures are needed to reduce alcohol-related harm. Early interventi on by health and social care professionals is an important and underexploited opportunity to prevent problems developing. Stronger drink driving measures are also required. All these measures are needed. Together, they provide a template for an integrated and comprehensive strategy to tackle the harm from alcohol in the UK.Additional co-authors: Gerry McElwee, Dr Kieran Moriarty CBE, Dr Robin Purshouse, Dr Peter Rice, Alison Rogers, George Roycroft , Chit Selvarajah, Don Shenker, Eric Appleby, Dr Nick Sheron, and Colin Shevill

Costly sons do not lead to adaptive sex ratio adjustment in pilot whales, Globicephala melas

Maternal investment in reproduction and parental care is an important determinant of both offspring and maternal fitness. However, optimal investment strategies may differ depending on offspring sex, potentially resulting in a sex-biased distribution of maternal resources or adaptive variation in offspring sex-ratio. We used morphometric and genetic data collected from over 3400 long-finned pilot whales Globicephala melas in 40 pods to investigate whether females experience differential costs of producing sons and daughters and whether they differentially invest in male and female offspring. We found that male calves grow faster than female calves during the first five years of life, suggesting that sons may require greater investment from lactating mothers. This appears to result in mothers experiencing a higher cost to future reproductive opportunities when producing male offspring as the presence of dependent sons (but not daughters) reduced the probability that a female would be pregnant. Despite these costs, we found no evidence that mothers adaptively adjust their investment in sons and daughters according to their body condition or their social and physical environment. These results suggest that mothers may be constrained from biasing investment in the sexes, or that additional benefits may be masking such costs. KEY WORDS: cetacean, Globicephala melas, group size, maternal investment, reproductive costs, reproductive success, sex-rati

Evolutionary process of Bos taurus cattle in favourable versus unfavourable environments and its implications for genetic selection

The evolutionary processes that have enabled Bos taurus cattle to establish around the globe are at the core to the future success of livestock production. Our study focuses on the history of cattle domestication including the last 60 years of B. taurus breeding programmes in both favourable and unfavourable environments and its consequences on evolution and fitness of cattle. We discuss the emergence of ‘production diseases’ in temperate production systems and consider the evolutionary genetics of tropical adaptation in cattle and conclude that the Senepol, N'Dama, Adaptaur and Criollo breeds, among others with similar evolutionary trajectories, would possess genes capable of improving the productivity of cattle in challenging environments. Using our own experimental evidence from northern Australia, we review the evolution of the Adaptaur cattle breed which has become resistant to cattle tick. We emphasize that the knowledge of interactions between genotype, environment and management in the livestock systems will be required to generate genotypes for efficient livestock production that are both economically and environmentally sustainable. Livestock producers in the 21st century will have less reliance on infrastructure and veterinary products to alleviate environmental stress and more on the animal's ability to achieve fitness in a given production environment

Abstracts from the NIHR INVOLVE Conference 2017

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Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Modelling of the effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W divertor of JET

Effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W target of JET ITER-Like Wall was studied with multi-scale calculations. Plasma input parameters were taken from ELMy H-mode plasma experiment. The energetic intra-ELM fuel particles get implanted and create near-surface defects up to depths of few tens of nm, which act as the main fuel trapping sites during ELMs. Clustering of implantation-induced vacancies were found to take place. The incoming flux of inter-ELM plasma particles increases the different filling levels of trapped fuel in defects. The temperature increase of the W target during the pulse increases the fuel detrapping rate. The inter-ELM fuel particle flux refills the partially emptied trapping sites and fills new sites. This leads to a competing effect on the retention and release rates of the implanted particles. At high temperatures the main retention appeared in larger vacancy clusters due to increased clustering rate

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

The role of ETG modes in JET-ILW pedestals with varying levels of power and fuelling

We present the results of GENE gyrokinetic calculations based on a series of JET-ITER-like-wall (ILW) type I ELMy H-mode discharges operating with similar experimental inputs but at different levels of power and gas fuelling. We show that turbulence due to electron-temperature-gradient (ETGs) modes produces a significant amount of heat flux in four JET-ILW discharges, and, when combined with neoclassical simulations, is able to reproduce the experimental heat flux for the two low gas pulses. The simulations plausibly reproduce the high-gas heat fluxes as well, although power balance analysis is complicated by short ELM cycles. By independently varying the normalised temperature gradients (omega(T)(e)) and normalised density gradients (omega(ne )) around their experimental values, we demonstrate that it is the ratio of these two quantities eta(e) = omega(Te)/omega(ne) that determines the location of the peak in the ETG growth rate and heat flux spectra. The heat flux increases rapidly as eta(e) increases above the experimental point, suggesting that ETGs limit the temperature gradient in these pulses. When quantities are normalised using the minor radius, only increases in omega(Te) produce appreciable increases in the ETG growth rates, as well as the largest increases in turbulent heat flux which follow scalings similar to that of critical balance theory. However, when the heat flux is normalised to the electron gyro-Bohm heat flux using the temperature gradient scale length L-Te, it follows a linear trend in correspondence with previous work by different authors