Mismeasured Mortality: Correcting Estimates of Wolf Poaching in the United States

Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyzing data and assumptions about the known and unknown fates of marked wolves to calculate the degree to which risks of different causes of death were mismeasured. We find that, when using traditional methods, the relative risk of mortality from legal killing measured as a proportion of all known fates was overestimated by 0.05–0.16 and the relative risk of poaching was underestimated by 0.17–0.44. We show that published government estimates are affected by these biases and, importantly, are underestimating the risk of poaching. The underestimates have obscured the magnitude of poaching as the major threat to endangered wolf populations. We offer methods to correct estimates of mortality risk for marked animals of any taxon and describe the conditions under which traditional methods produce more or less bias. We also show how correcting past and future estimates of mortality parameters can address uncertainty about wildlife populations and increase the predictability and sustainability of wildlife management interventions

Editorial: Phosphorus Along the Soil-Freshwater-Ocean Continuum

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for all organisms. However, there is a P paradox, whereby P concentrations considered deficient in some environments such as in agricultural soils are considered excessive in freshwater, where they trigger eutrophication (e.g., Sims and Sharpley, 2005 and references therein; Elser and Bennet, 2011; Lougheed, 2011). Geographical imbalances also occur, with excesses in Western Europe and North America and deficiencies in regions with highly weathered soils, such as sub-Saharan Africa. There is a strong link between soil P stores and P mobilization and transfer to receiving waters, termed the P transfer continuum (Haygarth et al., 2005). Ensuring adequate P for crop production while minimizing water quality degradation requires consideration of this continuum and an international, interdisciplinary approach. This research topic brings together P studies in soil science, lakes, rivers, estuaries, and oceans, with 74 authors from 12 countries in Asia, Europe, and North America, and identifies key priorities for future research

Policy Feedback and the Politics of the Affordable Care Act

There is a large body of literature devoted to how “policies create politics” and how feedback effects from existing policy legacies shape potential reforms in a particular area. Although much of this literature focuses on self‐reinforcing feedback effects that increase support for existing policies over time, Kent Weaver and his colleagues have recently drawn our attention to self‐undermining effects that can gradually weaken support for such policies. The following contribution explores both self‐reinforcing and self‐undermining policy feedback in relationship to the Affordable Care Act, the most important health‐care reform enacted in the United States since the mid‐1960s. More specifically, the paper draws on the concept of policy feedback to reflect on the political fate of the ACA since its adoption in 2010. We argue that, due in part to its sheer complexity and fragmentation, the ACA generates both self‐reinforcing and self‐undermining feedback effects that, depending of the aspect of the legislation at hand, can either facilitate or impede conservative retrenchment and restructuring. Simultaneously, through a discussion of partisan effects that shape Republican behavior in Congress, we acknowledge the limits of policy feedback in the explanation of policy stability and change

Simulation Modifies Prehension: Evidence for a Conjoined Representation of the Graspable Features of an Object and the Action of Grasping It

Movement formulas, engrams, kinesthetic images and internal models of the body in action are notions derived mostly from clinical observations of brain-damaged subjects. They also suggest that the prehensile geometry of an object is integrated in the neural circuits and includes the object's graspable characteristics as well as its semantic properties. In order to determine whether there is a conjoined representation of the graspable characteristics of an object in relation to the actual grasping, it is necessary to separate the graspable (low-level) from the semantic (high-level) properties of the object. Right-handed subjects were asked to grasp and lift a smooth 300-g cylinder with one hand, before and after judging the level of difficulty of a “grasping for pouring” action, involving a smaller cylinder and using the opposite hand. The results showed that simulated grasps with the right hand exert a direct influence on actual motor acts with the left hand. These observations add to the evidence that there is a conjoined representation of the graspable characteristics of the object and the biomechanical constraints of the arm

Evidence of Genetic Instability in Tumors and Normal Nearby Tissues

We have analyzed the sequence heterogeneity of the transcripts of the human HPRT and G6PD single copy genes that are not considered tumor markers. Analyses have been performed on different colon cancers and on the nearby histologically normal tissues of two male patients. Several copies of each cDNA, which were produced by cloning the RT-PCR-amplified fragments of the specific mRNA, have been sequenced. Similar analyses have been performed on blood samples of two ostensibly healthy males as reference controls. The sequence heterogeneity of the HPRT and G6PD genes was also determined on DNA from tumor tissues. The employed analytical approach revealed the presence of low-frequency mutations not detectable by other procedures. The results show that genetic heterogeneity is detectable in HPRT and G6PD transcripts in both tumors and nearby healthy tissues of the two studied colon tumors. Similar frequencies of mutations are observed in patient genomic DNA, indicating that mutations have a somatic origin. HPRT transcripts show genetic heterogeneity also in healthy individuals, in agreement with previous results on human T-cells, while G6PD transcript heterogeneity is a characteristic of the patient tissues. Interestingly, data on TP53 show little, if any, heterogeneity in the same tissues. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings show that genetic heterogeneity is a peculiarity not only of cancer cells but also of the normal tissue where a tumor arises

Structural, thermal and dissolution properties of MgO- and CaO-containing borophosphate glasses: effect of Fe2O3 addition

This paper investigated manufacture of high-durability phosphate glass fibres for biomedical applications. Five different borophosphate glass formulations in the systems of 45P2O5–5B2O3–5Na2O–(29 − x)CaO–16MgO–(x)Fe2O3 and 45P2O5–5B2O3–5Na2O–24CaO–(21 − x)MgO–(x)Fe2O3 where x = 5, 8 and 11 mol% were produced via melt quenching. The compositions and amorphous nature of the glasses were confirmed by ICP-MS and XRD, respectively. FTIR results indicated depolymerisation of the phosphate chains with a decrease in Q2 units with increasing Fe2O3 content. DSC analyses showed an increase in Tg by ~5 °C with an increment of 3 mol% in Fe2O3 content. The thermal properties were also used to calculate processing window (i.e. Tc,ons—Tg) and another parameter, Kgl, to determine the suitability for fibre drawing directly from melt, which equals (Tc,ons—Tg)/(Tl—Tc,ons). The degradation study conducted in PBS solution at 37 °C showed a decrease of 25–47% in degradation rate with increasing Fe2O3 content. This confirmed that the chemical durability of the glasses had increased, which was suggested to be due to Fe2O3 addition. Furthermore, the density measured via Archimedes method revealed a linear increase with increasing Fe2O3 content

Introductory programming: a systematic literature review

As computing becomes a mainstream discipline embedded in the school curriculum and acts as an enabler for an increasing range of academic disciplines in higher education, the literature on introductory programming is growing. Although there have been several reviews that focus on specific aspects of introductory programming, there has been no broad overview of the literature exploring recent trends across the breadth of introductory programming. This paper is the report of an ITiCSE working group that conducted a systematic review in order to gain an overview of the introductory programming literature. Partitioning the literature into papers addressing the student, teaching, the curriculum, and assessment, we explore trends, highlight advances in knowledge over the past 15 years, and indicate possible directions for future research

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

The effect of temperature, gradient and load carriage on oxygen consumption, posture and gait characteristics

Purpose The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the effect of load carriage in a range of temperatures to establish the interaction between cold exposure, the magnitude of change from unloaded to loaded walking and gradient. Methods Eleven participants (19-27 years) provided written informed consent before performing six randomly ordered walking trials in six temperatures (20°C, 10°C, 5°C, 0°C, -5°C and -10°C). Trials involved two unloaded walking bouts before and after loaded walking (18.2 kg) at 4 km.hr⁻¹, on 0% and 10% gradients in 4 minute bouts. Results The change in absolute oxygen consumption (V̇O₂) from the first unloaded bout to loaded walking was similar across all six temperatures. When repeating the second unloaded bout, V̇O₂ at both -5°C and-10°C was greater compared to the first. At -10°C, V̇O₂ was increased from 1.60 ± 0.30 L.min⁻¹ to 1.89 ± 0.51 L.min⁻¹. Regardless of temperature, gradient had a greater effect on V̇O₂ and heart rate (HR) than backpack load. HR was unaffected by temperature. Stride length (SL) decreased with decreasing temperature but trunk forward lean was greater during cold exposure. Conclusion Decreased ambient temperature did not influence the magnitude of change in V̇O₂ from unloaded to loaded walking. However, in cold temperatures, V̇O₂ was significantly higher than in warm conditions. The increased V̇O₂ in colder temperatures at the same exercise intensity is predicted to ultimately lead to earlier onset of fatigue and cessation of exercise. These results highlight the need to consider both appropriate clothing and fitness during cold exposure