High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century

A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is applied for India to develop high-resolution climate change scenarios. The presentday simulation (1961-1990) with PRECIS is evaluated, including an examination of the impact of enhanced resolution and an identification of biases. The RCM is able to resolve features on finer scales than those resolved by the GCM, particularly those related to improved resolution of the topography. The most notable advantage of using the RCM is a more realistic representation of the spatial patterns of summer monsoon rainfall such as the maximum along the windward side of the Western Ghats. There are notable quantitative biases in precipitation over some regions, mainly due to similar biases in the driving GCM. PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in both rainfall and temperature towards the end of the 21st century. Surface air temperature and rainfall show similar patterns of projected changes under A2 and B2 scenarios, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected change. The warming is monotonously widespread over the country, but there are substantial spatial differences in the projected rainfall changes. West central India shows maximum expected increase in rainfall. Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase into the future, but the night temperatures are increasing faster than the day temperatures. Extreme precipitation shows substantial increases over a large area, and particularly over the west coast of India and west central India

Inclusive nonresonant multilepton probes of new phenomena at s\sqrt{s}= 13 TeV

An inclusive search for nonresonant signatures of beyond the standard model (SM) phenomena in events with three or more charged leptons, including hadronically decaying τ leptons, is presented. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$= 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016–2018. Events are categorized based on the lepton and b-tagged jet multiplicities and various kinematic variables. Three scenarios of physics beyond the SM are probed, and signal-specific boosted decision trees are used for enhancing sensitivity. No significant deviations from the background expectations are observed. Lower limits are set at 95% confidence level on the mass of type-III seesaw heavy fermions in the range 845–1065 GeV for various decay branching fraction combinations to SM leptons. Doublet and singlet vectorlike τ lepton extensions of the SM are excluded for masses below 1045 GeV and in the mass range 125–150 GeV, respectively. Scalar leptoquarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lepton are excluded below 1.12–1.42 TeV, depending on the lepton flavor. For the type-III seesaw as well as the vectorlike doublet model, these constraints are the most stringent to date. For the vectorlike singlet model, these are the first constraints from the LHC experiments. Detailed results are also presented to facilitate alternative theoretical interpretations

Search for heavy resonances decaying to a pair of Lorentz-boosted Higgs bosons in final states with leptons and a bottom quark pair at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A search for new heavy resonances decaying to a pair of Higgs bosons (HH) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented. Data were collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. Resonances with a mass between 0.8 and 4.5 TeV are considered using events in which one Higgs boson decays into a bottom quark pair and the other into final states with either one or two charged leptons. Specifically, the single-lepton decay channel HH→bb¯¯¯WW∗→bb¯¯¯ℓvqq¯¯¯′ and the dilepton decay channels HH→bb¯¯¯WW∗→bb¯¯¯ℓvℓv and HH→bb¯¯¯ττ→bb¯¯¯ℓvvℓvv are examined, where ℓ in the final state corresponds to an electron or muon. The signal is extracted using a two-dimensional maximum likelihood fit of the H→bb¯¯¯ jet mass and HH invariant mass distributions. No significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed in data. Model-independent exclusion limits are placed on the product of the cross section and branching fraction for narrow spin-0 and spin-2 massive bosons decaying to HH. The results are also interpreted in the context of radion and bulk graviton production in models with a warped extra spatial dimension. The results provide the most stringent limits to date for X → HH signatures with final-state leptons and at some masses provide the most sensitive limits of all X → HH searches

Inclusive nonresonant multilepton probes of new phenomena at s\sqrt{s}= 13 TeV

An inclusive search for nonresonant signatures of beyond the standard model (SM) phenomena in events with three or more charged leptons, including hadronically decaying τ leptons, is presented. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$= 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016–2018. Events are categorized based on the lepton and b-tagged jet multiplicities and various kinematic variables. Three scenarios of physics beyond the SM are probed, and signal-specific boosted decision trees are used for enhancing sensitivity. No significant deviations from the background expectations are observed. Lower limits are set at 95% confidence level on the mass of type-III seesaw heavy fermions in the range 845–1065 GeV for various decay branching fraction combinations to SM leptons. Doublet and singlet vectorlike τ lepton extensions of the SM are excluded for masses below 1045 GeV and in the mass range 125–150 GeV, respectively. Scalar leptoquarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lepton are excluded below 1.12–1.42 TeV, depending on the lepton flavor. For the type-III seesaw as well as the vectorlike doublet model, these constraints are the most stringent to date. For the vectorlike singlet model, these are the first constraints from the LHC experiments. Detailed results are also presented to facilitate alternative theoretical interpretations

Search for direct pair production of supersymmetric partners of τ leptons in the final state with two hadronically decaying τ leptons and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

A search for the direct production of a pair of τ sleptons, the supersymmetric partners of τ leptons, is presented. Each τ slepton is assumed to decay to a τ lepton and the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP), which is assumed to be stable and to not interact in the detector, leading to an imbalance in the total reconstructed transverse momentum. The search is carried out in events identified as containing two τ leptons, each decaying to one or more hadrons and a neutrino, and significant transverse momentum imbalance. In addition to scenarios in which the τ sleptons decay promptly, the search also addresses scenarios in which the τ sleptons have sufficiently long lifetimes to give rise to nonprompt τ leptons. The data were collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13  TeV at the CERN LHC with the CMS detector in 2016–2018, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138  fb−1. No significant excess is seen with respect to standard model expectations. Upper limits on cross sections for the pair production of τ sleptons are obtained in the framework of simplified models. In a scenario in which the τ sleptons are superpartners of left-handed τ leptons, and each undergoes a prompt decay to a τ lepton and a nearly massless LSP, τ slepton masses between 115 and 340 GeV are excluded. In a scenario in which the lifetime of the τ sleptons corresponds to cτ0=0.1  mm, where τ0 represents the mean proper lifetime of the τ slepton, masses between 150 and 220 GeV are excluded

Search for a heavy resonance decaying into a top quark and a W boson in the lepton+jets final state at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A search for a heavy resonance decaying into a top quark and a W boson in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV is presented. The data analyzed were recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The top quark is reconstructed as a single jet and the W boson, from its decay into an electron or muon and the corresponding neutrino. A top quark tagging technique based on jet clustering with a variable distance parameter and simultaneous jet grooming is used to identify jets from the collimated top quark decay. The results are interpreted in the context of two benchmark models, where the heavy resonance is either an excited bottom quark b∗ or a vector-like quark B. A statistical combination with an earlier search by the CMS Collaboration in the all-hadronic final state is performed to place upper cross section limits on these two models. The new analysis extends the lower range of resonance mass probed from 1.4 down to 0.7 TeV. For left-handed, right-handed, and vector-like couplings, b∗ masses up to 3.0, 3.0, and 3.2 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, respectively. The observed upper limits represent the most stringent constraints on the b∗ model to date

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe