Developing methods to understand intra-host evolution and the effect of antiviral drugs on RNA viruses

Viral infections are common and are particularly problematic in immunocompromised individuals. However, other than for HIV, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, Influenza, and more recently SARS-CoV-2, there have been few approved drugs available for treating viral infections. Instead, repurposed drugs are often used, especially at the beginning of the current pandemic, for treating SARS-CoV-2. It remains unclear how these repurposed drugs act on the viral population and whether the suppression of viral load we observe is attributed to the drug or the immune response or a combination of both. The research presented in this thesis primarily focuses on the study of two RNA viruses, SARS-CoV-2 and Norovirus. A mixture of viral load data and viral genomic data were analysed to understand the course of infection within individuals. First, we presented a meta-analysis on SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics where we investigated the changes of viral dynamics over time, with and without the presence of antiviral drugs. Then, we presented an evolutionary model used for reconstructing haplotypes in mixed infections. Finally, we demonstrated the use of viral deep sequencing to study the within-host evolution of RNA viruses. We identified mutagenic signatures and consensus level changes associated with antiviral treatments. We developed unique methods to analyse viral sequences which allow us to understand the within-host genomic variations and hence inform our understanding of the heterogeneous efficacy of a drug between patients. Overall, this thesis provides insights into how the efficacy of a drug can be evaluated by monitoring the within-host viral dynamics and evolution

Haplotype assignment of longitudinal viral deep-sequencing data using co-variation of variant frequencies

Longitudinal deep sequencing of viruses can provide detailed information about intra-host evolutionary dynamics including how viruses interact with and transmit between hosts. Many analyses require haplotype reconstruction, identifying which variants are co-located on the same genomic element. Most current methods to perform this reconstruction are based on a high density of variants and cannot perform this reconstruction for slowly evolving viruses. We present a new approach, HaROLD (HAplotype Reconstruction Of Longitudinal Deep sequencing data), which performs this reconstruction based on identifying co-varying variant frequencies using a probabilistic framework. We illustrate HaROLD on both RNA and DNA viruses with synthetic Illumina paired read data created from mixed human cytomegalovirus and norovirus genomes, and clinical datasets of human cytomegalovirus and norovirus samples, demonstrating high accuracy, especially when longitudinal samples are available

Case Report: severe paediatric COVID-19 pneumonitis treated with remdesivir and nitazoxanide

Paediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection rarely results in a critical respiratory presentation. It is not yet known which children are at particular risk of adverse outcomes. We describe a paediatric case of critical SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO), who made a full recovery after receiving a dual antiviral therapy of remdesivir and nitazoxanide

Detection of a reservoir of bedaquiline / clofazimine resistance associated variants in Mycobacterium tuberculosis predating the antibiotic era

Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the Rv0678 gene which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug. We compiled a dataset of 3,682 Mtb genomes, including 223 carrying Rv0678 bedaquiline RAVs. We identified at least 15 cases where RAVs were present in the genomes of strains collected prior to the use of bedaquiline in TB treatment regimes. Phylogenetic analyses point to multiple emergence events and circulation of RAVs in Rv0678, often prior to the introduction of bedaquiline or clofazimine. We also identify one case where the RAV Ile67fs is estimated to have emerged prior to the antibiotic era. The presence of a pre-existing reservoir of bedaquiline-resistant Mtb strains augments the need for rapid drug susceptibility testing and individualised regimen selection to safeguard the use of bedaquiline in TB care and control

Detection of a historic reservoir of bedaquiline/clofazimine resistance-associated variants in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Background: Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by off-target resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the mmpR5 gene (Rv0678), the regulator of an efflux pump, which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug. Methods: We compiled a dataset of 3682 Mtb genomes, including 180 carrying variants in mmpR5, and its immediate background (i.e. mmpR5 promoter and adjacent mmpL5 gene), that have been associated to borderline (henceforth intermediate) or confirmed resistance to bedaquiline. We characterised the occurrence of all nonsynonymous mutations in mmpR5 in this dataset and estimated, using time-resolved phylogenetic methods, the age of their emergence. Results: We identified eight cases where RAVs were present in the genomes of strains collected prior to the use of bedaquiline in TB treatment regimes. Phylogenetic reconstruction points to multiple emergence events and circulation of RAVs in mmpR5, some estimated to predate the introduction of bedaquiline. However, epistatic interactions can complicate bedaquiline drug-susceptibility prediction from genetic sequence data. Indeed, in one clade, Ile67fs (a RAV when considered in isolation) was estimated to have emerged prior to the antibiotic era, together with a resistance reverting mmpL5 mutation. Conclusions: The presence of a pre-existing reservoir of Mtb strains carrying bedaquiline RAVs prior to its clinical use augments the need for rapid drug susceptibility testing and individualised regimen selection to safeguard the use of bedaquiline in TB care and control

Remdesivir induced viral RNA and subgenomic RNA suppression, and evolution of viral variants in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients

Abstract While changes in SARS-CoV-2 viral load over time have been documented, detailed information on the impact of remdesivir and how it might alter intra-host viral evolution is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 recovered from the upper respiratory tract of hospitalised children revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral RNA levels in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain. Evidence of drug resistance to explain this difference was not found. Reduced levels of subgenomic (sg) RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication that is independent of viral RNA levels. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. We conclude that these are likely to have arisen from within-host evolution, and not co-transmission, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Sample-to-sample heterogeneity in the abundances of variant genotypes is best explained by the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalisation is well described in serious lung infections caused by influenza and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and has been associated with poor drug penetration, suboptimal treatment and drug resistance. Our data provide evidence that remdesivir is able to suppress SARS-CoV-2 replication in vivo but that its efficacy may be compromised by factors reducing penetration into the lung. Based on data from influenza and Mycobacterium tuberculosis lung infections we conclude that early use of remdesivir combined with other agents should now be evaluated. Summary Sentence Deep sequencing of longitudinal samples from SARS-CoV-2 infected paediatric patients identifies evidence of remdesivir-associated inhibition of viral replication in vivo and uncovers evidence of within host evolution of distinct viral genotypes

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men: multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16 November 2020 to 10 January 2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Sequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases=786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The HR for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.28, p=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.37, p=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.78, p=0.096) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.90, p=0.011) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.10, p=0.177; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.04, p=0.086). INTERPRETATION: In common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.This report was produced by members of the COG-UK-HOCI Variant substudy consortium. COG-UK-HOCI is part of COG-UK. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute

Burden of injury along the development spectrum : associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments