A rainfall model for drought risk analysis in south-east UK

Drought risk assessment ideally requires long-term rainfall records especially where inter-annual droughts are of potential concern, and spatially consistent estimates of rainfall to support regional and inter-regional scale assessments. This paper addresses these challenges by developing a spatially consistent stochastic model of monthly rainfall for south-east UK. Conditioned on 50 gauged sites, the model infills the historic record from 1855-2011 in both space and time, and extends the record by synthesising droughts which are consistent with the observed rainfall statistics. The long record length allows more insight into the variability of rainfall and potentially a stronger basis for risk assessment than is generally possible. It is shown that, although localised biases exist in both space and time, the model results are generally consistent with the observed record including for a range of inter-annual droughts and spatial statistics. Simulations show that some of the most severe inter-annual droughts on the record may recur, despite a trend towards generally wetter winters

Impact of periodic health examination on surgical treatment for uterine fibroids in Beijing: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the past 2 decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of "health examination center (HEC)" across China. The effects of their services on public's health have not been systemically investigated. This study aimed to assess the impact of periodic health examination (PHE) at HEC on surgical treatment for uterine fibroids in Beijing residents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We identified 224 patients with a primary diagnosis of uterine fibroids who had surgical treatment at four Level-1 general hospitals in Beijing, from June 1, 2009 to October 20, 2009. Controls were women who did not have surgery for uterine fibroids, matched (1:1 ratio) for age (within 2 years). A standard questionnaire was used to inquire about whether participants had PHE at HEC during the previous 2 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PHE at HEC within 2 years were associated with surgical treatment for uterine fibroids. Odds ratios was 4.05 (95% CI, 2.61-6.29 P < 0.001), after adjustment for marital status, whether have children, annual family income, health insurance, education level and self-rated uterine fibroids-related symptom severity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study showed PHE currently provided at HEC in China were associated with significantly increased use of surgical treatment for uterine fibroids in women. Further studies are needed to assess the effects of PHE on clinical as well as on broad societal outcomes in Chinese in contemporary medical settings.</p

Payment for performance (P4P): any future in Italy?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pay for Performance (P4P) programs, based on provision of financial incentives for service quality, have been widely adopted to enhance quality of care and to promote a more efficient use of health care resources whilst improving patient outcomes. In Italy, as in other countries, the growing concern over the quality of health services provided and the scarcity of resources would make P4P programs a useful means of improving their performance. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether it is possible to implement P4P programs in the Lombardy Region, in Italy, based on the existing data set.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirteen quality measures were identified regarding four clinical conditions (acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), ischemic stroke and hip and knee replacement) on the basis of an international literature review. Data was collected using the database of three institutions, which included hospital discharge records (Scheda di Dimissione ospedaliera-SDO-) and letters of discharge. The study population was identified using both the Principal ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes and the discharge date. A Statistical Analysis System (SAS) program was used for the text analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was possible to calculate almost all the parameters pertaining to the three hospitals as all the data required was available with the exception of inpatient mortality in two hospitals and smoking cessation advice/counseling in one hospital.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>On the ground of this analysis, we believe that it is possible to implement a P4P program in the Lombardy Region. However, for this program to be initiated, all necessary data must be available in electronic format and uniformly collected. Moreover, several other factors must be assessed: which clinical conditions should be included, the threshold for each quality parameter, the amount of financial incentives offered and how they will be provided.</p

Health and life insurance as an alternative to malpractice tort law

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tort law has legitimate social purposes of deterrence, punishment and compensation, but medical tort law does none of these well. Tort law could be counterproductive in medicine, encouraging costly defensive practices that harm some patients, restricting access to care in some settings and discouraging innovation.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Patients might be better served by purchasing combined health and life insurance policies and waiving their right to pursue malpractice claims. The combined policy should encourage the insurer to profit by inexpensively delaying policyholders' deaths. A health and life insurer would attempt to minimize mortal risks to policyholders from any cause, including medical mistakes and could therefore pursue systematic quality improvement efforts. If policyholders trust the insurer to seek, develop and reward genuinely effective care; identify, deter and remediate poor care; and compensate survivors through the no-fault process of paying life insurance benefits, then tort law is largely redundant and the right to sue may be waived. If expensive defensive medicine can be avoided, that savings alone could pay for fairly large life insurance policies.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Insurers are maligned largely because of their logical response to incentives that are misaligned with the interests of patients and physicians in the United States. Patient, provider and insurer incentives could be realigned by combining health and life insurance, allowing the insurer to use its considerable information access and analytic power to improve patient care. This arrangement would address the social goals of malpractice torts, so that policyholders could rationally waive their right to sue.</p

Deciphering the contribution of biofilm to the pathogenesis of peritoneal dialysis infections: characterization and microbial behaviour on dialysis fluids

Infections are major complications in peritoneal dialysis (PD) with a multifactorial etiology that comprises patient, microbial and dialytic factors. This study aimed at investigating the contribution of microbial biofilms on PD catheters to recalcitrant infections and their interplay with PD related-factors. A prospective observational study was performed on 47 patients attending Centro Hospitalar of Porto and Vila Nova de Gaia/Espinho to whom the catheter was removed due to infectious (n = 16) and non-infectious causes (n = 31). Microbial density on the catheter was assessed by culture methods and the isolated microorganisms identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight intact cell mass spectrometry. The effect of conventional and three biocompatible PD solutions on 16 Coagulase Negative Staphylococci (CNS) and 10 Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains planktonic growth and biofilm formation was evaluated. Cultures were positive in 87.5% of the catheters removed due infectious and 90.3% removed due to non-infectious causes. However, microbial yields were higher on the cuffs of catheters removed due to infection vs. non-infection. Staphylococci (CNS and Staphylococcus aureus) and P. aeruginosa were the predominant species: 32% and 20% in the infection and 43.3% and 22.7% in the non-infection group, respectively. In general, PD solutions had a detrimental effect on planktonic CNS and P. aeruginosa strains growth. All strains formed biofilms in the presence of PD solutions. The solutions had a more detrimental effect on P. aeruginosa than CNS strains. No major differences were observed between conventional and biocompatible solutions, although in icodextrin solution biofilm biomass was lower than in bicarbonate/lactate solution. Overall, we show that microbial biofilm is universal in PD catheters with the subclinical menace of Staphylococci and P. aeruginosa. Cuffs colonization may significantly contribute to infection. PD solutions differentially impact microbial species. This knowledge is important for the development of infection diagnosis, treatment and preventive strategies.This work received support from a Sociedade Portuguesa de Nefrologia (http://www.spnefro.pt) research grant to AR and a Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (http://www.fct.pt) post doc grant (SFRH/BPD/73663/2010) to MM. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Systematic review: Effects, design choices, and context of pay-for-performance in health care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pay-for-performance (P4P) is one of the primary tools used to support healthcare delivery reform. Substantial heterogeneity exists in the development and implementation of P4P in health care and its effects. This paper summarizes evidence, obtained from studies published between January 1990 and July 2009, concerning P4P effects, as well as evidence on the impact of design choices and contextual mediators on these effects. Effect domains include clinical effectiveness, access and equity, coordination and continuity, patient-centeredness, and cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The systematic review made use of electronic database searching, reference screening, forward citation tracking and expert consultation. The following databases were searched: Cochrane Library, EconLit, Embase, Medline, PsychINFO, and Web of Science. Studies that evaluate P4P effects in primary care or acute hospital care medicine were included. Papers concerning other target groups or settings, having no empirical evaluation design or not complying with the P4P definition were excluded. According to study design nine validated quality appraisal tools and reporting statements were applied. Data were extracted and summarized into evidence tables independently by two reviewers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred twenty-eight evaluation studies provide a large body of evidence -to be interpreted with caution- concerning the effects of P4P on clinical effectiveness and equity of care. However, less evidence on the impact on coordination, continuity, patient-centeredness and cost-effectiveness was found. P4P effects can be judged to be encouraging or disappointing, depending on the primary mission of the P4P program: supporting minimal quality standards and/or boosting quality improvement. Moreover, the effects of P4P interventions varied according to design choices and characteristics of the context in which it was introduced.</p> <p>Future P4P programs should (1) select and define P4P targets on the basis of baseline room for improvement, (2) make use of process and (intermediary) outcome indicators as target measures, (3) involve stakeholders and communicate information about the programs thoroughly and directly, (4) implement a uniform P4P design across payers, (5) focus on both quality improvement and achievement, and (6) distribute incentives to the individual and/or team level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>P4P programs result in the full spectrum of possible effects for specific targets, from absent or negligible to strongly beneficial. Based on the evidence the review has provided further indications on how effect findings are likely to relate to P4P design choices and context. The provided best practice hypotheses should be tested in future research.</p

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe