Multi-model ensemble predictions of aviation turbulence

Turbulence remains one of the leading causes of aviation incidents. Climate change is predicted to increase the occurrence of Clear‐Air Turbulence (CAT), and therefore forecasting turbulence will become more important in the future. Currently the two World Area Forecast Centres (WAFCs) use deterministic numerical weather prediction models to predict clear‐air turbulence operationally, it has been shown that ensemble forecasts improve the forecast skill of traditional meteorological variables. This study applies multi‐model ensemble forecasting to aviation turbulence for the first time. It is shown in a 12‐month global trial from May 2016 to April 2017, that combining two different ensembles yields a similar forecast skill to a single model ensemble, and yields an improvement in forecast value at low cost/loss ratios. This finding is consistent with previous work showing that the use of ensembles in turbulence forecasting is beneficial. Using a multi‐model approach is an effective way to improve the forecast skill and provide pilots and flight planners with more information about the forecast confidence, allowing them to make a more informed decision about what action needs to be taken, such as diverting around the turbulence or requiring passengers and flight attendants to be seatbelted. The multi‐model ensemble approach is intended to be made operational by both WAFCs in the near future and this study lays the foundations to make this possible

Measurement of the Isolated Photon Cross Section in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

The cross section for the inclusive production of isolated photons has been measured in p anti-p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span transverse momenta 23 to 300 GeV and have pseudorapidity |eta|<0.9. The cross section is compared with the results from two next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The theoretical predictions agree with the measurement within uncertainties.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys.Lett.

Pathogen-sugar interactions revealed by universal saturation transfer analysis

Many pathogens exploit host cell-surface glycans. However, precise analyses of glycan ligands binding with heavily modified pathogen proteins can be confounded by overlapping sugar signals and/or compounded with known experimental constraints. Universal saturation transfer analysis (uSTA) builds on existing nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide an automated workflow for quantitating protein-ligand interactions. uSTA reveals that early-pandemic, B-origin-lineage severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike trimer binds sialoside sugars in an "end-on" manner. uSTA-guided modeling and a high-resolution cryo-electron microscopy structure implicate the spike N-terminal domain (NTD) and confirm end-on binding. This finding rationalizes the effect of NTD mutations that abolish sugar binding in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Together with genetic variance analyses in early pandemic patient cohorts, this binding implicates a sialylated polylactosamine motif found on tetraantennary N-linked glycoproteins deep in the human lung as potentially relevant to virulence and/or zoonosis

Description of Atmospheric Conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malarg\"ue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown

Measurement of the differential cross section for the production of an isolated photon with associated jet in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

The process ppbar -> photon + jet + X is studied using 1.0 fb^-1 of data collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider at a center-of-mass energy sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV. Photons are reconstructed in the central rapidity region |y_gamma|<1.0 with transverse momenta in the range 30<Pt_gamma<400 GeV while jets are reconstructed in either the central |y_jet|15 GeV. The differential cross section d^3sigma/dPt_gamma dy_gamma dy_jet is measured as a function of Pt_gamma in four regions, differing by the relative orientations of the photon and the jet in rapidity. Ratios between the differential cross sections in each region are also presented. Next-to-leading order QCD predictions using different parameterizations of parton distribution functions and theoretical scale choices are compared to the data. The predictions do not simultaneously describe the measured normalization and Pt_gamma dependence of the cross section in any of the four measured regions.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

Defoe, William Hendley, and Charity Still a Christian Virtue (1719)

Argues against the attribution to Defoe of the tract 'Charity Still a Christian Virtue'. This patently high-church polemic is in a style impossible to associate with Defoe, and it seems hard to see why he should be regarded as the author when the Rev. William Hendley, with his printer and his publisher, were all arrested on 25 October 1719 for publication of the tract

The Works of Daniel Defoe

Daniel Defoe is now mainly thought of as a novelist - the author of such famous works as Robinson Crusoe and Moll Flanders - but this is not how his contemporaries regarded him. His reputation in his lifetime was as a poet, a journalist, and a polemical writer on political, economic and social affairs. The quantity and range of his writings is unparalleled in English Literature, and few writers have made such a lasting impact in so many literary genres. This is the most comprehensive collection of the writings of this extraordinary man ever attempted. Grouped under five thematic headings, it aims, in 44 volumes, to give as extensive a representation as possible of Defoe’s work in all the literary genres to which he contributed