The effect of rental rates on the extension of Conservation Reserve Program contracts

Given that the majority of conservation reserve program (CRP) contracts on approximately 36 million acres of enrolled land expire concurrently, re-enrollment decisions by farmers and the federal government have high budgetary implications. Using a survey of over 8,000 CRP contract holders, we apply an ordered response discrete choice model to explicitly model the range in rental rates over which the representative farmer may be ambivalent to renewing the CRP contract. Given the empirical results from the ordered response model, we estimate acreage re-enrollment as a function of the rental rate and compare them to results of a binomial choice model.CRP contracts; ordered probit; re-enrollment; respondent indifference

A Benefit Cost Analysis of a Soil Erosion Control Program for the Northern Watershed of Lake Chicot, Arkansas

Lake Chicot, a 5,025-acre oxbow lake created by the ancient meandering of the Mississippi River, is located near the town of Lake Village in Chicot County of southeastern Arkansas (Fig. 1). Today the lake is separated into a northern basin of 1,154 acres and a southern basin of 3,871 acres by a levee maintained by the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (Fig. 2). The entire lake once offered excellent fishing and recreational benefits. But with channelization in the drainage basin and final closure of the Cypress Creek gap along the Mississippi River levee in 1920, drainage and flood waters from approximately 350 square miles of agricultural lands were diverted into Connerly Bayou and thus, ultimately, into Lake Chicot

The Costs and Benefits of Soil Erosion Control in the North Lake Chicot Watershed

Lake Chicot is divided by a levee into two basins, the high quality northern basin and the extremely polluted southern basin. Water quality in the northern basin of Lake Chicot is diminishing due to soil erosion. Costs for alternative control programs for the seventeen fare, 11,470 acre northern watershed were estimated. Twenty-nine combinations of rotations and best management practices were evaluated. Soil loss can be reduced almost 25 percent from 4.2 tons per acre to 3.2 tons per acre, while increasing net returns to farmers from $83.94 per acre to$107.28 per acre by altering present cropping patterns. A prohibition on fall plowing would result in an average net return of $106.28 per acre and reduce average soil loss to 2.9 tons per acre. An average soil loss restriction would be the most cost-effective policy, exclusive of administrative costs. Benefits of erosion control were estimated by the difference between the value of recreational participation on the northern basin and the value for the southern basin. Control programs were highly cost-effective

The effect of rental rates on the extension of Conservation Reserve Program contracts

Given that the majority of conservation reserve program (CRP) contracts on approximately 36 million acres of enrolled land expire concurrently, re-enrollment decisions by farmers and the federal government have high budgetary implications. Using a survey of over 8,000 CRP contract holders, we apply an ordered response discrete choice model to explicitly model the range in rental rates over which the representative farmer may be ambivalent to renewing the CRP contract. Given the empirical results from the ordered response model, we estimate acreage re-enrollment as a function of the rental rate and compare them to results of a binomial choice model

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Search for high-energy neutrino emission from hard X-ray AGN with IceCube

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are powerful astronomical objects with very high luminosities. Theoretical arguments suggest that these objects are capable of accelerating particles to energies of 1020 eV. In environments with matter or photon targets, cosmic-ray interactions transpire leading to the production of pionic gamma rays and neutrinos. Since the AGN environment is rich in gas, dust and photons, they are promising candidate sources of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos. While the neutrinos manage to escape, the gamma rays may further interact and cascade down to hard X-rays in environments with sufficiently large photon or gas targets. We have used 12 years of IceCube data to perform a stacked search and a point source search for high-energy neutrino emission from hard X-ray AGN sampled from Swift-BAT Spectroscopic Survey (BASS) and present the results of these two analyses