Sea breeze forcing of estuary turbulence and air-water CO2 exchange

The sea breeze is often a dominant meteorological feature at the coastline, but little is known about its estuarine impacts. Measurements at an anchored catamaran and meteorological stations along the Hudson River and New York Bay estuarine system are used to illustrate some basic characteristics and impacts of the feature. The sea breeze propagates inland, arriving in phase with peak solar forcing at seaward stations, but several hours later at up-estuary stations. Passage of the sea breeze front raises the water-to-air CO2 flux by 1–2 orders of magnitude, and drives turbulence comparable to spring tide levels in the upper meter of the water column, where most primary productivity occurs in this highly turbid system. Modeling and observational studies often use remotely-measured winds to compute air-water fluxes (e.g., momentum, CO2), and this leads to a factor of two flux error on sea breeze days during the study

Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013

Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%

A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor

Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region\u27s present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy\u27s storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy\u27s storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments

Tidal and atmospheric influences on near-surface turbulence in an estuary

Estuarine near-surface turbulence is important for transport, mixing, and air-water exchanges of many important constituents but has rarely been studied in detail. Here, we analyze a unique set of estuarine observations of in situ atmospheric and full water column measurements, estimated air-sea exchanges, and acoustic measurements of several terms in the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget. Observations from a 5.1 m deep site in the Hudson River estuary include dissipation at 50 cm depth (ɛ50), as well as profiles of TKE, shear production of TKE (P), and net turbulent vertical TKE transport (TD). Regressions suggest that the principal controlling factor for ɛ50 was wind (through the surface shear velocity, U*) and that the surface heat flux and tidal currents played a secondary role. For ebb spring tides, the TKE budget at 50 cm depth was closed within noise levels. Ebbs had high ɛ50 due to local shear production, which nearly balanced ɛ50. Floods had TD approaching P in the upper water column but generally weak near-surface shear and turbulence. Examining buoyancy fluxes that impact near-surface stratification and can indirectly control turbulence, solar heat input and tidal straining caused similar buoyancy fluxes on a sunny, calm weather day, promoting ebb tide restratification. Wind-driven mixing was found to dominate during a fall season storm event, and strong overnight heat loss after the storm helped delay restratification afterward. These results demonstrate the utility of combining detailed air-sea interaction and physical oceanographic measurements in future estuary studies

Relative Sea-Level Trends in New York City During the Past 1500 Years

New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen profiles. The reconstruction was generated within a Bayesian hierarchical model to accommodate multiple proxies and to provide a unified statistical framework for quantifying uncertainty. We show that RSL in NYC rose by ~1.70 m since ~575 CE (including ~0.38 m since 1850 CE). The rate of RSL rise increased markedly at 1812–1913 CE from ~1.0 to ~2.5 mm/yr, which coincides with other reconstructions along the US Atlantic coast. We investigated the possible influence of tidal-range change in Long Island Sound on our reconstruction using a regional tidal model, and we demonstrate that this effect was likely small. However, future tidal-range change could exacerbate the impacts of RSL rise in communities bordering Long Island Sound. The current rate of RSL rise is the fastest that NYC has experienced for \u3e1500 years, and its ongoing acceleration suggests that projections of 21st-century local RSL rise will be realized

Comparing aerosol number and mass exhalation rates from children and adults during breathing, speaking and singing

Aerosol particles of respirable size are exhaled when individuals breathe, speak and sing and can transmit respiratory pathogens between infected and susceptible individuals. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into focus the need to improve the quantification of the particle number and mass exhalation rates as one route to provide estimates of viral shedding and the potential risk of transmission of viruses. Most previous studies have reported the number and mass concentrations of aerosol particles in an exhaled plume. We provide a robust assessment of the absolute particle number and mass exhalation rates from measurements of minute ventilation using a non-invasive Vyntus Hans Rudolf mask kit with straps housing a rotating vane spirometer along with measurements of the exhaled particle number concentrations and size distributions. Specifically, we report comparisons of the number and mass exhalation rates for children (12–14 years old) and adults (19–72 years old) when breathing, speaking and singing, which indicate that child and adult cohorts generate similar amounts of aerosol when performing the same activity. Mass exhalation rates are typically 0.002–0.02 ng s(−1) from breathing, 0.07–0.2 ng s(−1) from speaking (at 70–80 dBA) and 0.1–0.7 ng s(−1) from singing (at 70–80 dBA). The aerosol exhalation rate increases with increasing sound volume for both children and adults when both speaking and singing

Thermal Structure and Dynamics of Saturn's Northern Springtime Disturbance

This article combined several infrared datasets to study the vertical properties of Saturn's northern springtime storm. Spectroscopic observations of Saturn's northern hemisphere at 0.5 and 2.5 / cm spectral resolution were provided by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS, 17). These were supplemented with narrow-band filtered imaging from the ESO Very Large Telescope VISIR instrument (16) to provide a global spatial context for the Cassini spectroscopy. Finally, nightside imaging from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS, 22) provided a glimpse of the undulating cloud activity in the eastern branch of the disturbance. Each of these datasets, and the methods used to reduce and analyse them, will be described in detail below. Spatial maps of atmospheric temperatures, aerosol opacity and gaseous distributions are derived from infrared spectroscopy using a suite of radiative transfer and optimal estimation retrieval tools developed at the University of Oxford, known collectively as Nemesis (23). Synthetic spectra created from a reference atmospheric model for Saturn and appropriate sources of spectroscopic line data (6, 24) are convolved with the instrument function for each dataset. Atmospheric properties are then iteratively adjusted until the measurements are accurately reproduced with physically-realistic temperatures, compositions and cloud opacities

Genetic Variation in OAS1 Is a Risk Factor for Initial Infection with West Nile Virus in Man

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging pathogen that can cause fatal encephalitis. In mice, susceptibility to WNV has been reported to result from a single point mutation in oas1b, which encodes 2′–5′ oligoadenylate synthetase 1b, a member of the type I interferon-regulated OAS gene family involved in viral RNA degradation. In man, the human ortholog of oas1b appears to be OAS1. The ‘A’ allele at SNP rs10774671 of OAS1 has previously been shown to alter splicing of OAS1 and to be associated with reduced OAS activity in PBMCs. Here we show that the frequency of this hypofunctional allele is increased in both symptomatic and asymptomatic WNV seroconverters (Caucasians from five US centers; total n = 501; OR = 1.6 [95% CI 1.2–2.0], P = 0.0002 in a recessive genetic model). We then directly tested the effect of this SNP on viral replication in a novel ex vivo model of WNV infection in primary human lymphoid tissue. Virus accumulation varied markedly among donors, and was highest for individuals homozygous for the ‘A’ allele (P<0.0001). Together, these data identify OAS1 SNP rs10774671 as a host genetic risk factor for initial infection with WNV in humans

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London