ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PREDICTION SYSTEM USING A RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK

The observed poor quality of service being experienced in the power sector of Nigeria economy has been traced to non-availability of adequate model that can handle the inconsistencies associated with traditional statistical models for predicting consumers’ electricity need, so as to bridge the gap between the demand and supply of the energy. This research presents Electricity Consumption Prediction System (ECPS) based on the principle of radial basis function neural network to predict the country’s electricity consumption using the historical data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) annual statistical bulletin. The entire datasets used in the study were divided into train, validation and test sets in the ratio of 13:3:4. By the above, 65% of the entire data were used for the training, 15% for validation and 20% for testing. The train data was presented to the constructed models to approximate the function that maps the input patterns to some known target values. The models were also used to simulate both validation and the test datasets as case data on the consistency of results obtained from the training session through the train data. Experimental results showed that RBF network model performs better than equivalent Backpropagation (BP) network models that were compared with it and provides the best platform for developing a forecast system.

Effect of Nitrogen Source and Age at Harvest on the \u3cem\u3ein vitro\u3c/em\u3e Digestibility of Oba Super II Maize Fodder

This experiment was carried out in the Pasture Section of the Directorate of University farms and the laboratory of Department of Pasture and Range Management, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria, to evaluate the effect of nitrogen source (Swine manure, N.P.K. 15:15:15 as well as the control) and age at harvest on the in vitro gas production and digestibility of Oba Super II maize fodder. The experiment was in a split plot design. The nitrogen source was applied at the rate of 120 kgN/ha two weeks after planting. Maize was harvested at 8, 10 and 12 weeks after planting, oven dried and milled. Samples were taken to laboratory for in vitro analysis. Data collected was subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) using General Linear Model (GLM). The result of this study showed that nitrogen source and age at harvest significantly influenced (p \u3c 0.05) the volume of gas produced throughout the period of incubation. Oba super II maize fertilized with swine manure harvested 12WAP had the highest dry matter digestibility value to be 84.80 %. It was concluded that Oba Super II maize fertilized with swine manure and harvested 12 weeks after planting had the highest gas volume and can be recommended as a potential source of nutrient for ruminant animals

Vitamin D status and serum vitamin D binding protein levels in Nigerian children with nephrotic syndrome

Introduction: Nephrotic syndrome is a chronic relapsing condition associated with urinary loss of albumin and other proteins such as vitamin D binding protein (DBP). We determined vitamin D status and serum DBP levels in children with nephrotic syndrome and compared them to healthy controls. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed over a six-month period in children less than 18 years of age. The children with nephrotic syndrome were categorised by disease status as either newly diagnosed, in remission, resistant to therapy, or in relapse. Vitamin D levels were regarded as sufficient if ≥75 nmol/L, insufficient if <75 nmol/L but ≥50 nmol/L, deficient if <50 nmol/L, and severely deficient if <25 nmol/L. Serum DBP was also measured. Results: Fifty-five children with nephrotic syndrome and 24 controls were included in the study. There was no significant difference between the median ages of the cases (72.0 months, interquartile range (IQR) 48.0–120.0 months) and the controls (84.0 months, IQR 39.0–129.0 months). Severe vitamin D deficiency, deficiency and insufficient levels were documented in 54.5%, 41.8% and 3.6% of cases, respectively, significantly lower than the controls (P = 0.003). Vitamin D levels were higher in children with nephrotic syndrome in remission than in those who were not (30.3 ± 15.2 nmol/L vs 19.6 ± 11.0 nmol/L, P = 0.004). In the groups who were in remission, newly diagnosed, relapsing, and resistant, the median vitamin D levels were 30.3 nmol/L, 20.1 nmol/L, 19.2 nmol/L and 9.4 nmol/L, respectively (P = 0.031). Conclusions: Hypovitaminosis D occurs frequently in Nigerian children with nephrotic syndrome as well as in apparently healthy controls. Routine supplementation of vitamin D should be considered in children with nephrotic syndrome irrespective of whether the disease is in remission or not, or whether it is steroid-sensitive or not

A manual for large-scale sample collection, preservation, tracking, DNA extraction, and variety identification analysis

Several alternative options have been used for varietal identification. However most of the traditional methods have inherent uncertainty levels and estimates often have wide confidence intervals. In an attempt to circumvent traditional survey-based measurement errors in varietal identification, DNA-based varietal identification has been implemented in the Cassava Monitoring Survey (CMS) of Nigeria — a large adoption study involving 2500 cassava farming households. The DNA fingerprinting technique offers a reliable method to accurately identify varieties grown by farmers and increases accuracy and credibility in the interpretation of adoption rates and associated economic and policy analyses. Unlike phenotype-based methods, DNA is not affected by environmental conditions or plant growth stage and is more abundant than morphological descriptors. However, undertaking a credible DNA-based varietal identification is not a trivial matter because of the logistical challenges involving sample collection and tracking by a large team of field enumerators. This manual presents the detailed steps required for undertaking reliable DNA-fingerprinting-based identification of cassava varieties. In particular, the manual gives detailed information on the establishment of a sample tracking system, preparation of a readily available and cheap sample collection kit, field sample collection methodology, preparation of samples for DNA isolation, and development of a pipeline for variety identification analysis. This manual is part of the outputs of the CMS project funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)

Poverty and fever vulnerability in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria remains a major public health problem in Sub Saharan Africa, where widespread poverty also contribute to the burden of the disease. This study was designed to investigate the relationship between the prevalence of childhood fever and socioeconomic factors including poverty in Nigeria, and to examine these effects at the regional levels.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Determinants of fever in the last two weeks among children under five years were examined from the 25004 children records extracted from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2008 data set. A two-level random effects logistic model was fitted. </p> <p>Results</p> <p>About 16% of children reported having fever in the two weeks preceding the survey. The prevalence of fever was highest among children from the poorest households (17%), compared to 15.8% among the middle households and lowest among the wealthiest (13%) (p<0.0001). Of the 3,110 respondents who had bed nets in their households, 506(16.3%) children had fever, while 2,604(83.7%) did not. (p=0.082). In a multilevel model adjusting for demographic variables, fever was associated with rural place of residence (OR=1.27, p<0.0001, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.41), sex of child: female (OR=0.92, p=0.022, 95% CI: 0.859, 0.988) and all age categories (>6months), whereas the effect of wealth no longer reached statistical significance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While, overall bednet possession was low, less fever was reported in households that possessed bednets. Malaria control strategies and interventions should be designed that will target the poor and make an impact on poverty. The mechanism through which wealth may affect malaria occurrence needs further investigation. </p

Inequitable childhood immunization uptake in Nigeria: a multilevel analysis of individual and contextual determinants

Background: Immunization coverage in many parts of Nigeria is far from optimal, and far from equitable. Nigeria accounts for half of the deaths from Measles in Africa, the highest prevalence of circulating wild poliovirus in the world, and the country is among the ten countries in the world with vaccine coverage below 50 percent. Studies focusing on community-level determinants therefore have serious policy implications Methods: Multilevel multivariable regression analysis was used on a nationally-representative sample of women aged 15-49 years from the 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Multilevel regression analysis was performed with children (level 1) nested within mothers (level 2), who were in turn nested within communities (level 3). Results: Results show that the pattern of full immunization clusters within families and communities, and that socio-economic characteristics are important in explaining the differentials in full immunization among the children in the study. At the individual level, ethnicity, mothers' occupation, and mothers' household wealth were characteristics of the mothers associated with full immunization of the children. At the community level, the proportion of mothers that had hospital delivery was a determinant of full immunization status. Conclusion: Significant community-level variation remaining after having controlled for child- and mother-level characteristics is indicative of a need for further research on community-levels factors, which would enable extensive tailoring of community-level interventions aimed at improving full immunization and other child health outcomes

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The impact of multimorbidity on adult physical and mental health in low- and middle-income countries: what does the study on global ageing and adult health (SAGE) reveal?

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases contribute a large share of disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Chronic diseases have a tendency to occur simultaneously and where there are two or more such conditions, this is termed as 'multimorbidity'. Multimorbidity is associated with adverse health outcomes, but limited research has been undertaken in LMICs. Therefore, this study examines the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity as well as the associations between multimorbidity and self-rated health, activities of daily living (ADLs), quality of life, and depression across six LMICs. METHODS: Data was obtained from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave-1 (2007/10). This was a cross-sectional population based survey performed in LMICs, namely China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, including 42,236 adults aged 18 years and older. Multimorbidity was measured as the simultaneous presence of two or more of eight chronic conditions including angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, and vision impairment. Associations with four health outcomes were examined, namely ADL limitation, self-rated health, depression, and a quality of life index. Random-intercept multilevel regression models were used on pooled data from the six countries. RESULTS: The prevalence of morbidity and multimorbidity was 54.2 % and 21.9 %, respectively, in the pooled sample of six countries. Russia had the highest prevalence of multimorbidity (34.7 %) whereas China had the lowest (20.3 %). The likelihood of multimorbidity was higher in older age groups and was lower in those with higher socioeconomic status. In the pooled sample, the prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation was 14 %, depression 5.7 %, self-rated poor health 11.6 %, and mean quality of life score was 54.4. Substantial cross-country variations were seen in the four health outcome measures. The prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation, poor self-rated health, and depression increased whereas quality of life declined markedly with an increase in number of diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight the challenge of multimorbidity in LMICs, particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups, and the pressing need for reorientation of health care resources considering the distribution of multimorbidity and its adverse effect on health outcomes