Much more than meh: the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly elections

The Northern Ireland Assembly election of May 2022 was transformational, despite small shifts in the magnitudes of seats won by the two dominant blocs. John Garry, Brendan O’Leary and James Pow discuss the results

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade

Public attitudes to Irish unification. evidence on models and process from a deliberative forum in Ireland

We designed and conducted a (virtual) deliberative forum in the Republic of Ireland (N=50) on issues relating to potential Irish unification. We found that our participants, both before and after deliberation, preferred an integrated model of Irish unity in which Northern Ireland would be dissolved (the ‘integrated model’) to a model of unity in which Northern Ireland persists as a devolved entity but now within a united Ireland (the ‘devolved NI model’). We found that deliberation on procedural matters produces a substantial increase in support for specify-ing the particular model of a united Ireland on offer before any referendum. We also found that deliberation results in a very substantial decrease in support for holding an immediate referendum (within two years), and substantially increased support for a five-to-ten-year time frame. Overall, our findings suggest that public attitudes to models of Irish unity do not change upon learning and deliberation (with robust public preference for the integrated model), implying that if an Irish government’s preferred Irish unity model is not in line with Irish public opinion it faces a challenge in shaping the public’s views; however, attitudes to process do change as a result of deliberation (in the direction of favouring pre-referen-dum specification and a non-immediate referendum), implying that the more the public think about these issues, the more likely they are to favour the government providing clarity on the choice before any medium-term referendum.</p

Integrating crop modelling and production economics to investigate multiple nutrient deficiencies and yield gaps

A method is described for integrating crop modelling and production economics to quantify optimum applications of multiple nutrients and yield gaps. The method is demonstrated for crop production in the high-rainfall zone of southern Australia. Data from a biophysical crop model were used to overcome the persistent problem of inadequate experimental data. The Mitscherlich function was expanded to accommodate four variable inputs – nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulphur – and the expansion path was used to determine the economic optimum application of all four nutrients. Modelling revealed the state-contingent yield potential and the extent to which unrealised yield could be explained by profit-maximising behaviour and riskaversion by growers. If growers and their advisors were guided by the methods described, they would be better equipped to assess crop nutrient demands and limitations, predict yield potential, additional profit and the risks associated with high input systems in a variable climate. If scientists were more aware of the extra profits and the risks involved (as well as the quantitative relationships between inputs and outputs) when thinking about what to produce and how to do so, they would be more circumspect about the net benefits to be obtained from closing yield gaps

Challenges and Responses to Ongoing and Projected Climate Change for Dryland Cereal Production Systems throughout the World

Since the introduction of mechanized production in both developed and developing countries, crops and their management have undergone significant adaptation resulting in increased productivity. Historical yield increases in wheat have occurred across most regions of the world (20–88 kg ha−1 year−1), but climate trends threaten to dampen or reverse these gains such that yields are expected to decrease by 5–6% despite rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Current and projected climatic factors are temporally and spatially variable in dryland cereal production systems throughout the world. Productivity gains in wheat in some locations have been achieved from traditional agronomic practices and breeding. Continued improvement in all cereal production regions and locations of the world requires technical advances, including closer monitoring of soils, water conservation strategies, and multiple sowing times using different crops to reduce risks. The management of disease, pests, and weeds will be an added challenge, especially in areas of higher precipitation. Excellent progress has been achieved in Asia and there is much potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technical solutions seem within our grasp but must be implemented in the context of variable social, economic, regulatory, and administrative constraints, providing opportunities for cross fertilization and global collaboration to meet them

An Explanatory Model of Red Lentil Seed Coat Colour to Manage Degradation in Quality during Storage

This study presents an explanatory biophysical model developed and validated to simulate seed coat colour traits including CIE L*, a*, and b* changes over time for stored lentil cultivars PBA Hallmark, PBA Hurricane, PBA Bolt, and PBA Jumbo2 under diverse storage conditions. The model showed robust performance for all cultivars, with R2 values ≥ 0.89 and RMSE values ≤ 0.0019 for all seed coat colour traits. Laboratory validation at 35 °C demonstrated a high agreement (Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient, CCC ≥ 0.82) between simulated and observed values of all colour traits for PBA Jumbo2 and strong agreement (CCC ≥ 0.81) for PBA Hallmark in brightness (CIE L*) and redness (CIE a*), but not in yellowness (CIE b*). At 15 °C, both cultivars exhibited moderate to weak agreement between simulated and observed values of all colour traits (CCC ≤ 0.47), as very little change was recorded in the observed values over the 360 days of storage. Bulk storage system validation for PBA Hallmark showed moderate performance (CCC ≥ 0.46) between simulated and observed values of all colour traits. Modelling to simulate changes in seed coat colour traits of lentils over time will equip growers and traders to make informed managerial decisions when storing lentils for long periods

Stem-elongation

Growth and morphological parameters of wheat recorded at stem-elongation (DC31)

Data from: Elevated [CO2] mitigates the effect of surface drought by stimulating root growth to access sub-soil water

Through stimulation of root growth, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) may facilitate access of crops to sub-soil water, which could potentially prolong physiological activity in dryland environments, particularly because crops are more water use efficient under elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]). This study investigated the effect of drought in shallow soil versus sub-soil on agronomic and physiological responses of wheat to e[CO2] in a glasshouse experiment. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yitpi) was grown in split-columns with the top (0–30 cm) and bottom (31–60 cm; ‘sub-soil’) soil layer hydraulically separated by a wax-coated, root-penetrable layer under ambient [CO2] (a[CO2], ∼400 μmol mol-1) or e[CO2] (∼700 μmol mol-1) [CO2]. Drought was imposed from stem-elongation in either the top or bottom soil layer or both by withholding 33% of the irrigation, resulting in four water treatments (WW, WD, DW, DD; D = drought, W = well-watered, letters denote water treatment in top and bottom soil layer, respectively). Leaf gas exchange was measured weekly from stem-elongation until anthesis. Above-and belowground biomass, grain yield and yield components were evaluated at three developmental stages (stem-elongation, anthesis and maturity). Compared with a[CO2], net assimilation rate was higher and stomatal conductance was lower under e[CO2], resulting in greater intrinsic water use efficiency. Elevated [CO2] stimulated both above- and belowground biomass as well as grain yield, however, this stimulation was greater under well-watered (WW) than drought (DD) throughout the whole soil profile. Imposition of drought in either or both soil layers decreased aboveground biomass and grain yield under both [CO2] compared to the well-watered treatment. However, the greatest ‘CO2 fertilisation effect’ was observed when drought was imposed in the top soil layer only (DW), and this was associated with e[CO2]-stimulation of root growth especially in the well-watered bottom layer. We suggest that stimulation of belowground biomass under e[CO2] will allow better access to sub-soil water during grain filling period, when additional water is converted into additional yield with high efficiency in Mediterranean-type dryland agro-ecosystems. If sufficient water is available in the sub-soil, e[CO2] may help mitigating the effect of drying surface soil