Sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) bioclimatic suitability in Central Italy: future potential scenarios under climate change

The ecological and economic relevance of sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) has long been related to its wide geographical distribution and multipurpose products potential. In Central Italy and especially in Latium, sweet chestnut finds optimal environmental conditions for growth, supported by the application of traditional silvicultural practices. Thus, its distribution has been radically modified and controlled by man in order to manage it in profitable and diversified ways (e.g., by coppices or orchards) to produce a wide range of ecosystem services, marketable (wood, fruits) and not marketable (landscape, water regulation, etc.) products. Over the years, due to climate change, some productivity changes have been observed and new challenges are expected to manage and cultivate this species. Based on this background, this work aims at investigating the possible impacts of climate change on sweet chestnut in Central Italy in medium (2041-2060) and long term (2081-2100). Adopting a standard protocol for reporting species distribution model (ODMAP - Overview, Data, Model, Assessment, Prediction), four Earth System Models have been combined into two Shared Socio-economic Paths and two Time Horizons, to produce potential chestnut bioclimatic suitability maps. The outlined scenarios represent valuable information for future chestnut policy and management for defining specific strategies, considering the adaptive capacity of the species in terms of resilience from pathogenic attacks and response to innovative silvicultural treatments

Climate Change and Geographic Ranges: The Implications for Russian Forests

Forest ecosystems of the Russian Federation are expected to face high risks under environmental dynamics related to climate change. Analyzing the likely impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems is crucial in order to understand the potential adaptation of forests, to guide management strategies, as well as to preserve ecosystem services. With the aim to provide information on the possible modifications of geographic ranges, in the medium to long-term, for some Russian dominant forest species under climate change, we applied a Cascade Ensemble System (CES) approach. This consists of combining Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to six bias-corrected Earth System Model (ESM) projections, driven in turn by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) proxies of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, in order to obtain area maps of the future suitability for forest species. The suitability information is then flagged with information about its “likelihood,” adopting the IPCC terminology based on a consensus among projections. Maps of aggregated changes were created in order to identify areas potentially more vulnerable to climate change. Results showed that possible impacts of climate change (either gain or loss) were diversified across species with a pronounced Northward shift of the ranges. Further analyses were performed at sub-regional levels revealing the potential for the Arctic Circle to become a refuge area for some conifer species. Species-aggregated change analyses spotted two distinct areas as more vulnerable to habitat change, in the central and south-east portions of the Russian territory. Our findings represent useful and immediate biogeographical information available to Russian policy makers to delineate conservation strategies and forest management plans

HDAC1 inhibition by MS-275 in mesothelial cells limits cellular invasion and promotes MMT reversal

Peritoneal fibrosis is a pathological alteration of the peritoneal membrane occurring in a variety of conditions including peritoneal dialysis (PD), post-surgery adhesions and peritoneal metastases. The acquisition of invasive and pro-fibrotic abilities by mesothelial cells (MCs) through induction of MMT, a cell-specific form of EMT, plays a main role in this process. Aim of this study was to evaluate possible effects of histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors, key components of the epigenetic machinery, in counteracting MMT observed in MCs isolated from effluent of PD patients. HDAC inhibitors with different class/isoform selectivity have been used for pharmacological inhibition. While the effect of other inhibitors was limited to a partial E-cadherin re-expression, MS-275, a HDAC1-3 inhibitor, promoted: (i) downregulation of mesenchymal markers (MMP2, Col1A1, PAI-1, TGFβ1, TGFβRI) (ii) upregulation of epithelial markers (E-cadherin, Occludin), (iii) reacquisition of an epithelial-like morphology and (iv) marked reduction of cellular invasiveness. Results were confirmed by HDAC1 genetic silencing. Mechanistically, MS-275 causes: (i) increase of nuclear histone H3 acetylation (ii) rescue of the acetylation profile on E-cadherin promoter, (iii) Snail functional impairment. Overall, our study, pinpointing a role for HDAC1, revealed a new player in the regulation of peritoneal fibrosis, providing the rationale for future therapeutic opportunities

Heterocycle-containing tranylcypromine derivatives endowed with high anti-LSD1 activity

As regioisomers/bioisosteres of 1a, a 4-phenylbenzamide tranylcypromine (TCP) derivative previously disclosed by us, we report here the synthesis and biological evaluation of some (hetero)arylbenzoylamino TCP derivatives 1b-6, in which the 4-phenyl moiety of 1a was shifted at the benzamide C3 position or replaced by 2- or 3-furyl, 2- or 3-thienyl, or 4-pyridyl group, all at the benzamide C4 or C3 position. In anti-LSD1-CoREST assay, all the meta derivatives were more effective than the para analogues, with the meta thienyl analogs 4b and 5b being the most potent (IC50 values ¼ 0.015 and 0.005 lM) and the most selective over MAO-B (selectivity indexes: 24.4 and 164). When tested in U937 AML and prostate cancer LNCaP cells, selected compounds 1a,b, 2b, 3b, 4b, and 5a,b displayed cell growth arrest mainly in LNCaP cells. Western blot analyses showed increased levels of H3K4me2 and/or H3K9me2 confirming the involvement of LSD1 inhibition in these assays

The global methane budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30∘ N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60∘ N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90∘ N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4 yr−1 lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4 yr−1 by 8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning

Enabling planetary science across light-years. Ariel Definition Study Report

Ariel, the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, was adopted as the fourth medium-class mission in ESA's Cosmic Vision programme to be launched in 2029. During its 4-year mission, Ariel will study what exoplanets are made of, how they formed and how they evolve, by surveying a diverse sample of about 1000 extrasolar planets, simultaneously in visible and infrared wavelengths. It is the first mission dedicated to measuring the chemical composition and thermal structures of hundreds of transiting exoplanets, enabling planetary science far beyond the boundaries of the Solar System. The payload consists of an off-axis Cassegrain telescope (primary mirror 1100 mm x 730 mm ellipse) and two separate instruments (FGS and AIRS) covering simultaneously 0.5-7.8 micron spectral range. The satellite is best placed into an L2 orbit to maximise the thermal stability and the field of regard. The payload module is passively cooled via a series of V-Groove radiators; the detectors for the AIRS are the only items that require active cooling via an active Ne JT cooler. The Ariel payload is developed by a consortium of more than 50 institutes from 16 ESA countries, which include the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, and a NASA contribution

Lower COVID‐19 Incidence in Low‐Continentality West‐Coast Areas of Europe

In March 2020, the first known cases of COVID-19 occurred in Europe. Subsequently, the pandemic developed a seasonal pattern. The incidence of COVID-19 comprises spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations, with lower and/or shorter peaks resulting in lower total incidence and higher and/or longer peaks resulting higher total incidence. The reason behind this phenomena is still unclear. Unraveling factors that explain why certain places have higher versus lower total COVID-19 incidence can help health decision makers understand and plan for future waves of the pandemic. We test whether differences in the total incidence of COVID-19 within five European countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain), correlate with two environmental factors: the Köppen-Geiger climate zones and the Continentality Index, while statistically controlling for crowding. Our results show that during the first 16 months of the pandemic (March 2020 to July 2021), climate zones with larger annual differences in temperature and annually distributed precipitation show a higher total incidence than climate zones with smaller differences in temperature and dry seasons. This coincides with lower continentality values. Total incidence increases with continentality, up to a Continentality Index value of 19, where a peak is reached in the semicontinental zone. Low continentality (high oceanic influence) appears to be a strong suppressing factor for COVID-19 spread. The incidence in our study area is lowest at open low continentality west coast areas

CMCC-BioClimInd. A new globaldataset of bioclimatic indicators

CMCC-BioClimInd is a new global gridded dataset of bioclimatic indicators at 0.5° by 0.5 °resolution for historical and future conditions. The dataset provides a set of 35 bioclimatic indices, expressed as mean values over each time interval, derived from post-processing both climate reanalysis for historical period (1960-1999) and an ensemble of 11 bias corrected CMIP5 simulations under two emission scenarios for future climate projections alongtwo periods (2040-2079 and 2060-2099). This new dataset complements the availability of spatialized bioclimatic information, crucial aspect in many ecological and environmental wide scale applications and for several disciplines, including forestry, biodiversity conservation, plant and landscape ecology. The data of individual indices are publicly available for download in the commonly used Network Common Data Form 4 (NetCDF4) format

A Global Multiscale SPEI Dataset under an Ensemble Approach

A new multiscale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) dataset is provided for a reference period (1960–1999) and two future time horizons (2040–2079) and (2060–2099). The historical forcing is based on combined climate observations and reanalysis (WATer and global CHange Forcing Dataset), and the future projections are fed by the Fast Track experiment of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 and by an additional Earth system model (CMCC-CESM) forced by RCP 8.5. To calculate the potential evapotranspiration (PET) input to the SPEI, the Hargreaves–Samani and Thornthwaite equations were adopted. This ensemble considers uncertainty due to different climate models, development pathways, and input formulations. The SPEI is provided for accumulation periods of potential moisture deficit from 1 to 18 months starting in each month of the year, with a focus on the within-period variability, excluding long-term warming effects on PET. In addition to supporting drought analyses, this dataset is also useful for assessing wetter-than-normal conditions spanning one or more months. The SPEI was calculated using the SPEIbase package

Data_Sheet_1_Altitudinal shifting of major forest tree species in Italian mountains under climate change.docx

Climate change has profound implications for global ecosystems, particularly in mountainous regions where species distribution and composition are highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on native forest species is crucial for effective conservation and management strategies. Despite numerous studies on climate change impacts, there remains a need to investigate the future dynamics of climate suitability for key native forest species, especially in specific mountainous sections. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by examining the potential shifts in altitudinal range and suitability for forest species in Italy's mountainous regions. By using species distribution models, through MaxEnt we show the divergent impacts among species and scenarios, with most species experiencing a contraction in their altitudinal range of suitability whereas others show the potential to extend beyond the current tree line. The Northern and North-Eastern Apennines exhibit the greatest and most widespread impacts on all species, emphasizing their vulnerability. Our findings highlight the complex and dynamic nature of climate change impacts on forest species in Italy. While most species are projected to experience a contraction in their altitudinal range, the European larch in the Alpine region and the Turkey oak in the Apennines show potential gains and could play significant roles in maintaining wooded populations. The tree line is generally expected to shift upward, impacting the European beech—a keystone species in the Italian mountain environment—negatively in the Alpine arc and Northern Apennines, while showing good future suitability above 1,500 meters in the Central and Southern Apennines. Instead, the Maritime pine emerges as a promising candidate for the future of the Southern Apennines. The projected impacts on mountain biodiversity, particularly in terms of forest population composition, suggest the need for comprehensive conservation and management strategies. The study emphasizes the importance of using high-resolution climate data and considering multiple factors and scenarios when assessing species vulnerability. The findings have implications at the local, regional, and national levels, emphasizing the need for continued efforts in producing reliable datasets and forecasts to inform targeted conservation efforts and adaptive management strategies in the face of climate change.</p