Hydraulic criticality of the exchange flow through the Strait of Gibraltar

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 39 (2009): 2779-2799, doi:10.1175/2009JPO4075.1.The hydraulic state of the exchange circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar is defined using a recently developed critical condition that accounts for cross-channel variations in layer thickness and velocity, applied to the output of a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model simulating the tidal exchange. The numerical model uses a coastal-following curvilinear orthogonal grid, which includes, in addition to the Strait of Gibraltar, the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea. The model is forced at the open boundaries through the specification of the surface tidal elevation that is characterized by the two principal semidiurnal and two diurnal harmonics: M2, S2, O1, and K1. The simulation covers an entire tropical month. The hydraulic analysis is carried out approximating the continuous vertical stratification first as a two-layer system and then as a three-layer system. In the latter, the transition zone, generated by entrainment and mixing between the Atlantic and Mediterranean flows, is considered as an active layer in the hydraulic model. As result of these vertical approximations, two different hydraulic states have been found; however, the simulated behavior of the flow only supports the hydraulic state predicted by the three-layer case. Thus, analyzing the results obtained by means of the three-layer hydraulic model, the authors have found that the flow in the strait reaches maximal exchange about 76% of the tropical monthlong period

Modelling 3D hydrodynamics governing island-associated sandbanks in a proposed tidal stream energy site

© 2017 The Authors A 3D numerical modelling study to investigate the existing hydrodynamic regime of the Pentland Firth Inner Sound Channel, Scotland, UK is presented. Hydrodynamics that govern some sensitive sedimentary deposits in the Inner Sound Channel are discussed. A 3D hydrodynamic model Delft3D is set up for Pentland Firth, located between Orkney Islands and mainland Scotland and a full sensitivity analysis of the numerical model is carried out. The current model set up sufficiently captures the existing hydrodynamics during a full spring-neap tidal cycle inside Pentland Firth. Using model results, the 3D structure of the dynamics of the tidal flows in the Inner Sound Channel is investigated. The temporal variability of tidal flows, the residual tidal flows in the channel and local flow interactions with the Island of Stroma are described. It is proved that the tidally dominant flows drive the sediment transport gradient model to explain the principle maintenance mechanisms of two island-associated sandbanks present in the Inner Sound. The present study provides detailed information on the physics of the tidal regime in the Inner Sound and explains the presence of sandbanks in an area of high tidal flows. Due to extremely high tidal flows, Inner Sound is considered as one of the most favourable sites for tidal energy extraction in the UK. The findings of this study will be very useful in assessing the significance of impacts of future tidal energy extraction on natural hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the area

Bias-Corrected CMIP5-Derived Single-Forcing Future Wind-Wave Climate Projections toward the End of the Twenty-First Century

A quantile-based bias-correction method is applied to a seven-member dynamic ensemble of global wave climate simulations with the aim of reducing the significant wave height HS, mean wave period Tm, and mean wave direction (MWD) biases, in comparison with the ERA5 reanalysis. The corresponding projected changes toward the end of the twenty-first century are assessed. Seven CMIP5 EC-EARTH runs (single forcing) were used to force seven wave model (WAM) realizations (single model), following the RCP8.5 scenario (single scenario). The biases for the 1979?2005 reference period (present climate) are corrected using the empirical Gumbel quantile mapping and empirical quantile mapping methods. The same bias-correction parameters are applied to the HS, Tm (and wave energy flux Pw), and MWD future climate projections for the 2081?2100 period. The bias-corrected projected changes show increases in the annual mean HS (14%), Tm (6.5%), and Pw (30%) in the Southern Hemisphere and decreases in the Northern Hemisphere (mainly in the North Atlantic Ocean) that are more pronounced during local winter. For the upper quantiles, the bias-corrected projected changes are more striking during local summer, up to 120%, for Pw. After bias correction, the magnitude of the HS, Tm, and Pw original projected changes has generally increased. These results, albeit consistent with recent studies, show the relevance of a quantile-based bias-correction method in the estimation of the future projected changes in swave climate that is able to deal with the misrepresentation of extreme phenomena, especially along the tropical and subtropical latitudes.This work has been done under the auspices of the JCOMM Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). Gil Lemos is supported by the EarthSystems Doctoral School, at University of Lisbon, supported by Portuguese Foundation for Science andTechnology (FCT) projectUIDB/50019/2020—Instituto Dom Luiz. Melisa Menendez acknowledges the financial support from the Ramon y Cajal Program (RYC-2014- 6469) and project ECLISEA, part of ERA4CS/ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and cofounded by the European Union (Grant 690462)

The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region : a process-based analysis

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): G02029, doi:10.1029/2006JG000380.Wildfire is a common occurrence in ecosystems of northern high latitudes, and changes in the fire regime of this region have consequences for carbon feedbacks to the climate system. To improve our understanding of how wildfire influences carbon dynamics of this region, we used the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage north of 45°N from the start of spatially explicit historically recorded fire records in the twentieth century through 2002, and evaluated the role of fire in the carbon dynamics of the region within the context of ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. Our analysis indicates that fire plays an important role in interannual and decadal scale variation of source/sink relationships of northern terrestrial ecosystems and also suggests that atmospheric CO2 may be important to consider in addition to changes in climate and fire disturbance. There are substantial uncertainties in the effects of fire on carbon storage in our simulations. These uncertainties are associated with sparse fire data for northern Eurasia, uncertainty in estimating carbon consumption, and difficulty in verifying assumptions about the representation of fires that occurred prior to the start of the historical fire record. To improve the ability to better predict how fire will influence carbon storage of this region in the future, new analyses of the retrospective role of fire in the carbon dynamics of northern high latitudes should address these uncertainties.Funding for this study was provided by grants from the National Science Foundation Biocomplexity Program (ATM-0120468) and Office of Polar Programs (OPP-0531047 and OPP- 0327664); the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Land Cover Land Use Change Program (NAF-11142) and North America Carbon Program (NNG05GD25G); the Bonanza Creek LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) Program (funded jointly by NSF grant DEB-0423442 and USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station grant PNW01- JV11261952-231); and the U.S. Geological Survey

The multiplicity of malaria transmission: a review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a serious tropical disease that causes more than one million deaths each year, most of them in Africa. It is transmitted by a range of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of disease varies greatly across the continent. The "entomological inoculation rate" is the commonly-used measure of the intensity of malaria transmission, yet the methods used are currently not standardized, nor do they take the ecological, demographic, and socioeconomic differences across populations into account. To better understand the multiplicity of malaria transmission, this study examines the distribution of transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa, reviews the range of methods used, and explores ecological parameters in selected locations. It builds on an extensive geo-referenced database and uses geographical information systems to highlight transmission patterns, knowledge gaps, trends and changes in methodologies over time, and key differences between land use, population density, climate, and the main mosquito species. The aim is to improve the methods of measuring malaria transmission, to help develop the way forward so that we can better assess the impact of the large-scale intervention programmes, and rapid demographic and environmental change taking place across Africa

Thermal constraints on the frictional conditions of the nucleation and rupture area of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake

The 1992 Nicaragua earthquake was a ‘tsunami earthquake’, which generated tsunamis disproportionately large for its surface wave magnitude Ms = 7.2. Seismological studies and tsunami simulation indicated that the event was a slow earthquake, which occurred on the plate boundary between the subducting Cocos plate and the overriding Caribbean plate. We present a finite element model that enables us to estimate for the first time the temperature and inferred frictional conditions in the rupture area of a tsunami earthquake. Direct and indirect observations are used to constrain all model parameters, and surface heat-flux measurements provide independent information to verify the model results. Furthermore, we used a genetic algorithm to perform a sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and to define the spatial range of thermally defined updip limit of the seismogenic zone. The earthquake nucleated in the seismogenic zone at temperatures of ∼150 °C and propagated updip towards the trench axis. The centroid or centre of mass of moment release was located in a region characterized by temperatures of ∼50 °C. Thus, the rupture propagated through a region where plate motion is normally accommodated by aseismic creep. Our observations support a model in which tsunami earthquakes nucleate in the seismogenic zone near its updip limit. However, in such an environment coupled asperities are perhaps too small to cause large earthquakes. Seamounts, however, are abundant on the incoming Cocos plate. Therefore, in addition to temperature-dependent metamorphic induration of sediments, increased normal stress by seamount subduction may contribute to accumulate stress sufficiently large to release enough energy near the updip limit of the seismogenic zone to promote dynamic slip along a normally aseismic décollement all way to the ocean