The growth of structure in the Szekeres inhomogeneous cosmological models and the matter-dominated era

This study belongs to a series devoted to using Szekeres inhomogeneous models to develop a theoretical framework where observations can be investigated with a wider range of possible interpretations. We look here into the growth of large-scale structure in the models. The Szekeres models are exact solutions to Einstein's equations that were originally derived with no symmetries. We use a formulation of the models that is due to Goode and Wainwright, who considered the models as exact perturbations of an FLRW background. Using the Raychaudhuri equation, we write for the two classes of the models, exact growth equations in terms of the under/overdensity and measurable cosmological parameters. The new equations in the overdensity split into two informative parts. The first part, while exact, is identical to the growth equation in the usual linearly perturbed FLRW models, while the second part constitutes exact non-linear perturbations. We integrate numerically the full exact growth rate equations for the flat and curved cases. We find that for the matter-dominated era, the Szekeres growth rate is up to a factor of three to five stronger than the usual linearly perturbed FLRW cases, reflecting the effect of exact Szekeres non-linear perturbations. The growth is also stronger than that of the non-linear spherical collapse model, and the difference between the two increases with time. This highlights the distinction when we use general inhomogeneous models where shear and a tidal gravitational field are present and contribute to the gravitational clustering. Additionally, it is worth observing that the enhancement of the growth found in the Szekeres models during the matter-dominated era could suggest a substitute to the argument that dark matter is needed when using FLRW models to explain the enhanced growth and resulting large-scale structures that we observe today (abridged)Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, matches PRD accepted versio

Correlation properties of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect and implications for Dark Energy

In the context of a cosmological study of the bulk flows in the Universe, we present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. We first compute analytically the correlation function and the power spectrum of the projected peculiar velocities of galaxy clusters. By taking into account the spatial clustering properties of these sources, we perform a line-of-sight computation of the {\em all-sky} kSZ power spectrum and find that at large angular scales ($l<10$), the local bulk flow should leave a visible signature above the Poisson-like fluctuations dominant at smaller scales, while the coupling of density and velocity fluctuations should give much smaller contribution. We conduct an analysis of the prospects of future high resolution CMB experiments (such as ACT and SPT) to detect the kSZ signal and to extract cosmological information and dark energy constraints from it. We present two complementary methods, one suitable for ``deep and narrow'' surveys such as ACT and one suitable for ``wide and shallow'' surveys such as SPT. Both methods can constraint the equation of state of dark energy $w$ to about 5-10% when applied to forthcoming and future surveys, and probe $w$ in complementary redshift ranges, which could shed some light on its time evolution. These determinations of $w$ do not rely on the knowledge of cluster masses, although they make minimal assumptions on cluster physics.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, submitted to ApJ, comments welcome. See parallel work of S.DeDeo, D.N.Spergel and H.Trak (ApJ, to be submitted

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Simultaneous Planck, Swift, and Fermi observations of X-ray and gamma-ray selected blazars

We present simultaneous Planck, Swift, Fermi, and ground-based data for 105 blazars belonging to three samples with flux limits in the soft X-ray, hard X-ray, and gamma-ray bands. Our unique data set has allowed us to demonstrate that the selection method strongly influences the results, producing biases that cannot be ignored. Almost all the BL Lac objects have been detected by Fermi-LAT, whereas ~40% of the flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) in the radio, soft X-ray, and hard X-ray selected samples are still below the gamma-ray detection limit even after integrating 27 months of Fermi-LAT data. The radio to sub-mm spectral slope of blazars is quite flat up to ~70GHz, above which it steepens to ~-0.65. BL Lacs have significantly flatter spectra than FSRQs at higher frequencies. The distribution of the rest-frame synchrotron peak frequency (\nupS) in the SED of FSRQs is the same in all the blazar samples with =10^13.1 Hz, while the mean inverse-Compton peak frequency, , ranges from 10^21 to 10^22 Hz. The distributions of \nupS and of \nupIC of BL Lacs are much broader and are shifted to higher energies than those of FSRQs and strongly depend on the selection method. The Compton dominance of blazars ranges from ~0.2 to ~100, with only FSRQs reaching values >3. Its distribution is broad and depends strongly on the selection method, with gamma-ray selected blazars peaking at ~7 or more, and radio-selected blazars at values ~1, thus implying that the assumption that the blazar power is dominated by high-energy emission is a selection effect. Simple SSC models cannot explain the SEDs of most of the gamma-ray detected blazars in all samples. The SED of the blazars that were not detected by Fermi-LAT may instead be consistent with SSC emission. Our data challenge the correlation between bolometric luminosity and \nupS predicted by the blazar sequence.Comment: Version accepted by A&A. Joint Planck, Swift, and Fermi collaborations pape

Euclid preparation. XXVIII. Forecasts for ten different higher-order weak lensing statistics

Recent cosmic shear studies have shown that higher-order statistics (HOS) developed by independent teams now outperform standard two-point estimators in terms of statistical precision thanks to their sensitivity to the non-Gaussian features of large-scale structure. The aim of the Higher-Order Weak Lensing Statistics (HOWLS) project is to assess, compare, and combine the constraining power of ten different HOS on a common set of Euclid-like mocks, derived from N-body simulations. In this first paper of the HOWLS series, we computed the nontomographic (Ω$_{m}$, σ$_{8}$) Fisher information for the one-point probability distribution function, peak counts, Minkowski functionals, Betti numbers, persistent homology Betti numbers and heatmap, and scattering transform coefficients, and we compare them to the shear and convergence two-point correlation functions in the absence of any systematic bias. We also include forecasts for three implementations of higher-order moments, but these cannot be robustly interpreted as the Gaussian likelihood assumption breaks down for these statistics. Taken individually, we find that each HOS outperforms the two-point statistics by a factor of around two in the precision of the forecasts with some variations across statistics and cosmological parameters. When combining all the HOS, this increases to a 4.5 times improvement, highlighting the immense potential of HOS for cosmic shear cosmological analyses with Euclid. The data used in this analysis are publicly released with the paper

Euclid Preparation. XXVIII. Forecasts for ten different higher-order weak lensing statistics

Recent cosmic shear studies have shown that higher-order statistics (HOS) developed by independent teams now outperform standard two-point estimators in terms of statistical precision thanks to their sensitivity to the non-Gaussian features of large-scale structure. The aim of the Higher-Order Weak Lensing Statistics (HOWLS) project is to assess, compare, and combine the constraining power of ten different HOS on a common set of $Euclid$-like mocks, derived from N-body simulations. In this first paper of the HOWLS series, we computed the nontomographic ($\Omega_{\rm m}$, $\sigma_8$) Fisher information for the one-point probability distribution function, peak counts, Minkowski functionals, Betti numbers, persistent homology Betti numbers and heatmap, and scattering transform coefficients, and we compare them to the shear and convergence two-point correlation functions in the absence of any systematic bias. We also include forecasts for three implementations of higher-order moments, but these cannot be robustly interpreted as the Gaussian likelihood assumption breaks down for these statistics. Taken individually, we find that each HOS outperforms the two-point statistics by a factor of around two in the precision of the forecasts with some variations across statistics and cosmological parameters. When combining all the HOS, this increases to a $4.5$ times improvement, highlighting the immense potential of HOS for cosmic shear cosmological analyses with $Euclid$. The data used in this analysis are publicly released with the paper

Bone mineral density in vocational and professional ballet dancers

Summary: According to existing literature, bone health in ballet dancers is controversial. We have verified that, compared to controls, young female and male vocational ballet dancers have lower bone mineral density (BMD) at both impact and non-impact sites, whereas female professional ballet dancers have lower BMD only at non-impact sites. Introduction: The aims of this study were to (a) assess bone mineral density (BMD) in vocational (VBD) and professional (PBD) ballet dancers and (b) investigate its association with body mass (BM), fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM), maturation and menarche. Methods: The total of 152 VBD (13 ± 2.3 years; 112 girls, 40 boys) and 96 controls (14 ± 2.1 years; 56 girls, 40 boys) and 184 PBD (28 ± 8.5 years; 129 females, 55 males) and 160 controls (27 ± 9.5 years; 110 female, 50 males) were assessed at the lumbar spine (LS), femoral neck (FN), forearm and total body by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Maturation and menarche were assessed via questionnaires. Results: VBD revealed lower unadjusted BMD at all anatomical sites compared to controls (p < 0.001); following adjustments for Tanner stage and gynaecological age, female VBD showed similar BMD values at impact sites. However, no factors were found to explain the lower adjusted BMD values in VBD (female and male) at the forearm (non-impact site), nor for the lower adjusted BMD values in male VBD at the FN. Compared to controls, female PBD showed higher unadjusted and adjusted BMD for potential associated factors at the FN (impact site) (p < 0.001) and lower adjusted at the forearm (p < 0.001). Male PBD did not reveal lower BMD than controls at any site. Conclusions: both females and males VBD have lower BMD at impact and non-impact sites compared to control, whereas this is only the case at non-impact site in female PBD. Maturation seems to explain the lower BMD at impact sites in female VBD

Characteristics of outdoor falls among older people: A qualitative study

Background Falls are a major threat to older people’s health and wellbeing. Approximately half of falls occur in outdoor environments but little is known about the circumstances in which they occur. We conducted a qualitative study to explore older people’s experiences of outdoor falls to develop understanding of how they may be prevented. Methods We conducted nine focus groups across the UK (England, Wales, and Scotland). Our sample was from urban and rural settings and different environmental landscapes. Participants were aged 65+ and had at least one outdoor fall in the past year. We analysed the data using framework and content analyses. Results Forty-four adults aged 65 – 92 took part and reported their experience of 88 outdoor falls. Outdoor falls occurred in a variety of contexts, though reports suggested the following scenarios may have been more frequent: when crossing a road, in a familiar area, when bystanders were around, and with an unreported or unknown attribution. Most frequently, falls resulted in either minor or moderate injury, feeling embarrassed at the time of the fall, and anxiety about falling again. Ten falls resulted in fracture, but no strong pattern emerged in regard to the contexts of these falls. Anxiety about falling again appeared more prevalent among those that fell in urban settings and who made more visits into their neighbourhood in a typical week. Conclusions This exploratory study has highlighted several aspects of the outdoor environment that may represent risk factors for outdoor falls and associated fear of falling. Health professionals are recommended to consider outdoor environments as well as the home setting when working to prevent falls and increase mobility among older people

Stratification of biological therapies by pathobiology in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis (STRAP and STRAP-EU): two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, randomised trials

Background: Despite highly effective targeted therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, about 40% of patients respond poorly, and predictive biomarkers for treatment choices are lacking. We did a biopsy-driven trial to compare the response to rituximab, etanercept, and tocilizumab in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis stratified for synovial B cell status. Methods: STRAP and STRAP-EU were two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, stratified, randomised, phase 3 trials done across 26 university centres in the UK and Europe. Biologic-naive patients aged 18 years or older with rheumatoid arthritis based on American College of Rheumatology (ACR)–European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria and an inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) were included. Following ultrasound-guided synovial biopsy, patients were classified as B cell poor or B cell rich according to synovial B cell signatures and randomly assigned (1:1:1) to intravenous rituximab (1000 mg at week 0 and week 2), subcutaneous tocilizumab (162 mg per week), or subcutaneous etanercept (50 mg per week). The primary outcome was the 16-week ACR20 response in the B cell-poor, intention-to-treat population (defined as all randomly assigned patients), with data pooled from the two trials, comparing etanercept and tocilizumab (grouped) versus rituximab. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. These trials are registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register, 2014-003529-16 (STRAP) and 2017-004079-30 (STRAP-EU). Findings: Between June 8, 2015, and July 4, 2019, 226 patients were randomly assigned to etanercept (n=73), tocilizumab (n=74), and rituximab (n=79). Three patients (one in each group) were excluded after randomisation because they received parenteral steroids in the 4 weeks before recruitment. 168 (75%) of 223 patients in the intention-to-treat population were women and 170 (76%) were White. In the B cell-poor population, ACR20 response at 16 weeks (primary endpoint) showed no significant differences between etanercept and tocilizumab grouped together and rituximab (46 [60%] of 77 patients vs 26 [59%] of 44; odds ratio 1·02 [95% CI 0·47–2·17], p=0·97). No differences were observed for adverse events, including serious adverse events, which occurred in six (6%) of 102 patients in the rituximab group, nine (6%) of 108 patients in the etanercept group, and three (4%) of 73 patients in the tocilizumab group (p=0·53). Interpretation: In this biologic-naive population of patients with rheumatoid arthrtitis, the dichotomic classification into synovial B cell poor versus rich did not predict treatment response to B cell depletion with rituximab compared with alternative treatment strategies. However, the lack of response to rituximab in patients with a pauci-immune pathotype and the higher risk of structural damage progression in B cell-rich patients treated with rituximab warrant further investigations into the ability of synovial tissue analyses to inform disease pathogenesis and treatment response. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Versus Arthritis