Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

An immunohistochemical perspective of PPARβ and one of its putative targets PDK1 in normal ovaries, benign and malignant ovarian tumours

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor β (PPARβ) is a member of the nuclear hormone receptor family and is a ligand-activated transcription factor with few known molecular targets including 3-phosphoinositide-dependent protein kinase 1(PDK1). In view of the association of PPARβ and PDK1 with cancer, we have examined the expression of PPARβ and PDK1 in normal ovaries and different histological grades of ovarian tumours. Normal ovaries, benign, borderline, grades 1, 2 and 3 ovarian tumours of serous, muciuous, endometrioid, clear cell and mixed subtypes were analysed by immunohistochemistry for PPARβ and PDK1 expression. All normal ovarian tissues, benign, borderline and grade 1 tumours showed PPARβ staining localised in the epithelium and stroma. Staining was predominantly nuclear, but some degree of cytoplasmic staining was also evident. Approximately 20% of grades 2 and 3 tumours lacked PPARβ staining, whereas the rest displayed some degree of nuclear and cytoplasmic staining of the scattered epithelium and stroma. The extent of epithelial and stromal PPARβ staining was significantly different among the normal and the histological grades of tumours (χ2=59.25, d.f.=25, P<0.001; χ2=64.48, d.f.=25, P<0.001). Significantly different staining of PPARβ was observed in the epithelium and stroma of benign and borderline tumours compared with grades 1, 2 and 3 tumours (χ2=11.28, d.f.=4, P<0.05; χ2=16.15, d.f.=4, P<0.005). In contrast, PDK1 immunostaining was absent in 9 out of 10 normal ovaries. Weak staining for PDK1 was observed in one normal ovary and 40% of benign ovarian tumours. All borderline and malignant ovarian tumours showed positive cytoplasmic and membrane PDK1 staining. Staining of PDK1 was confined to the epithelium and the blood vessels, and no apparent staining of the stroma was evident. Significantly different PDK1 staining was observed between the benign/borderline and malignant ovarian tumours (χ2=22.45, d.f.=5, P<0.001). In some borderline and high-grade tumours, staining of the reactive stroma was also evident. Our results suggest that unlike the colon, the endometrial, head and neck carcinomas, overexpression of PPARβ does not occur in ovarian tumours. However, overexpression of PDK1 was evident in borderline and low- to high-grade ovarian tumours and is consistent with its known role in tumorigenesis

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

A Comparative Study of the Short Term Cold Resistance Response in Distantly Related Drosophila Species: The Role of regucalcin and Frost

The molecular basis of short term cold resistance (indexed as chill-coma recovery time) has been mostly addressed in D. melanogaster, where candidate genes (Dca (also known as smp-30) and Frost (Fst)) have been identified. Nevertheless, in Drosophila, the ability to tolerate short term exposure to low temperatures evolved several times independently. Therefore, it is unclear whether variation in the same candidate genes is also responsible for short term cold resistance in distantly related Drosophila species. It should be noted that Dca is a candidate gene for cold resistance in the Sophophora subgenus only, since there is no orthologous gene copy in the Drosophila subgenus. Here we show that, in D. americana (Drosophila subgenus), there is a north-south gradient for a variant at the 5′ non-coding region of regucalcin (a Dca-like gene; in D. melanogaster the proteins encoded by the two genes share 71.9% amino acid identities) but in our D. americana F2 association experiment there is no association between this polymorphism and chill-coma recovery times. Moreover, we found no convincing evidence that this gene is up-regulated after cold shock in both D. americana and D. melanogaster. Size variation in the Fst PEST domain (putatively involved in rapid protein degradation) is observed when comparing distantly related Drosophila species, and is associated with short term cold resistance differences in D. americana. Nevertheless, this effect is likely through body size variation. Moreover, we show that, even at two hours after cold shock, when up-regulation of this gene is maximal in D. melanogaster (about 48 fold expression change), in D. americana this gene is only moderately up-regulated (about 3 fold expression change). Our work thus shows that there are important differences regarding the molecular basis of cold resistance in distantly related Drosophila species

Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits—almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Differentiation of human adipose-derived stem cells into neuron/motoneuron-like cells for cell replacement therapy of spinal cord injury

Human adipose-derived stem cells (hADSCs) are increasingly presumed to be a prospective stem cell source for cell replacement therapy in various degenerative and/or traumatic diseases. The potential of trans-differentiating hADSCs into motor neuron cells indisputably provides an alternative way for spinal cord injury (SCI) treatment. In the present study, a stepwise and efficient hADSC trans-differentiation protocol with retinoic acid (RA), sonic hedgehog (SHH), and neurotrophic factors were developed. With this protocol hADSCs could be converted into electrophysiologically active motoneuron-like cells (hADSC-MNs), which expressed both a cohort of pan neuronal markers and motor neuron specific markers. Moreover, after being primed for neuronal differentiation with RA/SHH, hADSCs were transplanted into SCI mouse model and they survived, migrated, and integrated into injured site and led to partial functional recovery of SCI mice. When ablating the transplanted hADSC-MNs harboring HSV-TK-mCherry overexpression system with antivirial Ganciclovir (GCV), functional relapse was detected by motor-evoked potential (MEP) and BMS assays, implying that transplanted hADSC-MNs participated in rebuilding the neural circuits, which was further confirmed by retrograde neuronal tracing system (WGA). GFP-labeled hADSC-MNs were subjected to whole-cell patch-clamp recording in acute spinal cord slice preparation and both action potentials and synaptic activities were recorded, which further confirmed that those pre-conditioned hADSCs indeed became functionally active neurons in vivo. As well, transplanted hADSC-MNs largely prevented the formation of injury-induced cavities and exerted obvious immune-suppression effect as revealed by preventing astrocyte reactivation and favoring the secretion of a spectrum of anti-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. Our work suggests that hADSCs can be readily transformed into MNs in vitro, and stay viable in spinal cord of the SCI mouse and exert multi-therapeutic effects by rebuilding the broken circuitry and optimizing the microenvironment through immunosuppression