Model-agnostic Feature Importance and Effects with Dependent Features -- A Conditional Subgroup Approach

Partial dependence plots and permutation feature importance are popular model-agnostic interpretation methods. Both methods are based on predicting artificially created data points. When features are dependent, both methods extrapolate to feature areas with low data density. The extrapolation can cause misleading interpretations. To overcome extrapolation, we propose conditional variants of partial dependence plots and permutation feature importance. Our approach is based on perturbations in subgroups. The subgroups partition the feature space to make the feature distribution within a group more homogeneous and between the groups more heterogeneous. The interpretable subgroups enable additional local, nuanced interpretations of the feature dependence structure as well as the feature effects and importance values within the subgroups. We also introduce a data fidelity measure that captures the degree of extrapolation when data is transformed with a certain perturbation. In simulations and benchmarks on real data we show that our conditional interpretation methods reduce extrapolation. In an application we show that these methods provide more nuanced and richer explanations

Vortex streets to the lee of Madeira in a kilometre-resolution regional climate model

Atmospheric vortex streets are a widely studied dynamical effect of isolated mountainous islands. Observational evidence comes from case studies and satellite imagery, but the climatology and annual cycle of vortex shedding are often poorly understood. Using the non-hydrostatic limited-area COSMO model driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we conducted a 10-year-long simulation over a mesoscale domain covering the Madeira and Canary archipelagos at high spatial (grid spacing of 1 km) and temporal resolutions. Basic properties of vortex streets were analysed and validated through a 6 d long case study in the lee of Madeira Island. The simulation compares well with satellite and aerial observations and with existing literature on idealised simulations. Our results show a strong dependency of vortex shedding on local and synoptic-flow conditions, which are to a large extent governed by the location, shape and strength of the Azores high. As part of the case study, we developed a vortex identification algorithm. The algorithm is based on a set of criteria and enabled us to develop a climatology of vortex shedding from Madeira Island for the 10-year simulation period. The analysis shows a pronounced annual cycle with an increasing vortex-shedding rate from April to August and a sudden decrease in September. This cycle is consistent with mesoscale wind conditions and local inversion height patterns

Performance of Epigenetic Markers SEPT9 and ALX4 in Plasma for Detection of Colorectal Precancerous Lesions

BACKGROUND: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) has shown to reduce cancer-related mortality, however, acceptance and compliance to current programmes are poor. Developing new, more acceptable non-invasive tests for the detection of cancerous and precancerous colorectal lesions would not only allow preselection of individuals for colonoscopy, but may also prevent cancer by removal of precancerous lesions. METHODS: Plasma from 128 individuals (cohort I - exploratory study: 73 cases / 55 controls) was used to test the performance of a single marker, SEPT9, using a real-time quantitative PCR assay. To validate performance of SEPT9, plasma of 76 individuals (cohort II - validation study: 54 cases / 22 controls) was assessed. Additionally, improvement of predictive capability considering SEPT9 and additionally ALX4 methylation was investigated within these patients. RESULTS: In both cohorts combined, methylation of SEPT9 was observed in 9% of controls (3/33), 29% of patients with colorectal precancerous lesions (27/94) and 73% of colorectal cancer patients (24/33). The presence of both SEPT9 and ALX4 markers was analysed in cohort II and was observed in 5% of controls (1/22) and 37% of patients with polyps (18/49). Interestingly, also 3/5 (60%) patients with colorectal cancer were tested positive by the two marker panel in plasma. CONCLUSIONS: While these data confirm the detection rate of SEPT9 as a biomarker for colorectal cancer, they also show that methylated DNA from advanced precancerous colorectal lesions can be detected using a panel of two DNA methylation markers, ALX4 and SEPT9. If confirmed in larger studies these data indicate that screening for colorectal precancerous lesions with a blood-based test may be as feasible as screening for invasive cancer

Simulating the gamma-ray emission from galaxy clusters: a universal cosmic ray spectrum and spatial distribution

Entering a new era of high-energy gamma-ray experiments, there is an exciting quest for the first detection of gamma-ray emission from clusters of galaxies. To complement these observational efforts, we use high-resolution simulations of a broad sample of galaxy clusters, and follow self-consistent cosmic ray (CR) physics using an improved spectral description. We study CR proton spectra as well as the different contributions of the pion decay and inverse Compton emission to the total flux and present spectral index maps. We find a universal spectrum of the CR component in clusters with surprisingly little scatter across our cluster sample. The spatial CR distribution also shows approximate universality; it depends however on the cluster mass. This enables us to derive a semi-analytic model for both, the distribution of CRs as well as the pion-decay gamma-ray emission that results from hadronic CR interactions with ambient gas protons. In addition, we provide an analytic framework for the inverse Compton emission that is produced by shock-accelerated CR electrons and valid in the full gamma-ray energy range. Combining the complete sample of the brightest X-ray clusters observed by ROSAT with our gamma-ray scaling relations, we identify the brightest clusters for the gamma-ray space telescope Fermi and current imaging air Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC, HESS, VERITAS). We reproduce the result in Pfrommer (2008), but provide somewhat more conservative predictions for the fluxes in the energy regimes of Fermi and imaging air Cherenkov telescopes when accounting for the bias of `artificial galaxies' in cosmological simulations. We find that it will be challenging to detect cluster gamma-ray emission with Fermi after the second year but this mission has the potential of constraining interesting values of the shock acceleration efficiency after several years of surveying.Comment: 33 pages, 25 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS: Typos corrected and primary IC analysis now includes the Klein-Nishina effect and a simple-to-use semi-analytic formul

Fluid challenges in intensive care : the FENICE study A global inception cohort study

Erratum: Fluid challenges in intensive care: the FENICE study A global inception cohort study (vol 41, pg 1529, 2015) https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-015-4003-yFluid challenges (FCs) are one of the most commonly used therapies in critically ill patients and represent the cornerstone of hemodynamic management in intensive care units. There are clear benefits and harms from fluid therapy. Limited data on the indication, type, amount and rate of an FC in critically ill patients exist in the literature. The primary aim was to evaluate how physicians conduct FCs in terms of type, volume, and rate of given fluid; the secondary aim was to evaluate variables used to trigger an FC and to compare the proportion of patients receiving further fluid administration based on the response to the FC. This was an observational study conducted in ICUs around the world. Each participating unit entered a maximum of 20 patients with one FC. 2213 patients were enrolled and analyzed in the study. The median [interquartile range] amount of fluid given during an FC was 500 ml (500-1000). The median time was 24 min (40-60 min), and the median rate of FC was 1000 [500-1333] ml/h. The main indication for FC was hypotension in 1211 (59 %, CI 57-61 %). In 43 % (CI 41-45 %) of the cases no hemodynamic variable was used. Static markers of preload were used in 785 of 2213 cases (36 %, CI 34-37 %). Dynamic indices of preload responsiveness were used in 483 of 2213 cases (22 %, CI 20-24 %). No safety variable for the FC was used in 72 % (CI 70-74 %) of the cases. There was no statistically significant difference in the proportion of patients who received further fluids after the FC between those with a positive, with an uncertain or with a negatively judged response. The current practice and evaluation of FC in critically ill patients are highly variable. Prediction of fluid responsiveness is not used routinely, safety limits are rarely used, and information from previous failed FCs is not always taken into account.Peer reviewe

Attention modulates motor system activation during action observation: evidence for inhibitory rebound

Perceiving another individual’s actions activates the human motor system. We investigated whether this effect is stronger when the observed action is relevant to the observer’s task. The mu rhythm (oscillatory activity in the 8- to 13-Hz band over sensorimotor cortex) was measured while participants watched videos of grasping movements. In one of two conditions, the participants had to later report how many times they had seen a certain kind of grasp. In the other condition, they viewed the identical videos but had to later report how many times they had seen a certain colour change. The colour change and the grasp always occurred simultaneously. Results show mu rhythm attenuation when watching the videos relative to baseline. This attenuation was stronger when participants later reported the grasp rather than the colour, suggesting that the motor system is more strongly activated when the observed grasping actions were relevant to the observer’s task. Moreover, when the graspable object disappeared after the offset of the video, there was subsequent mu rhythm enhancement, reflecting a post-stimulus inhibitory rebound. This enhancement was again stronger when making judgments about the grasp than the colour, suggesting that the stronger activation is followed by a stronger inhibitory rebound

Quality of Life as an outcome in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias- obstacles and goals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The number of individuals at risk for dementia will probably increase in ageing societies as will the array of preventive and therapeutic options, both however within limited economic resources. For economic and medical purposes valid instruments are required to assess disease processes and the efficacy of therapeutic interventions for different forms and stages of illness. In principal, the impact of illness and success of an intervention can be assessed with biomedical variables, e.g. severity of symptoms or frequency of complications of a disease. However, this does not allow clear judgement on clinical relevance or comparison across different diseases.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Outcome model variables such as quality of life (QoL) or health care resource utilization require the patient to appraise their own well-being or third parties to set preferences. In Alzheimer's disease and other dementias the evaluation process performed by the patient is subject to the disease process itself because over progress of the disease neuroanatomical structures are affected that mediate evaluation processes.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Published research and methodological considerations thus lead to the conclusion that current QoL-instruments, which have been useful in other contexts, are ill-suited and insufficiently validated to play a major role in dementia research, decision making and resource allocation. New models integrating biomedical and outcome variables need to be developed in order to meet the upcoming medical and economic challenges.</p

Report on the sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction methods.

The sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods has been held, with five target systems: a small nearly rigid molecule, a polymorphic former drug candidate, a chloride salt hydrate, a co-crystal and a bulky flexible molecule. This blind test has seen substantial growth in the number of participants, with the broad range of prediction methods giving a unique insight into the state of the art in the field. Significant progress has been seen in treating flexible molecules, usage of hierarchical approaches to ranking structures, the application of density-functional approximations, and the establishment of new workflows and `best practices' for performing CSP calculations. All of the targets, apart from a single potentially disordered Z' = 2 polymorph of the drug candidate, were predicted by at least one submission. Despite many remaining challenges, it is clear that CSP methods are becoming more applicable to a wider range of real systems, including salts, hydrates and larger flexible molecules. The results also highlight the potential for CSP calculations to complement and augment experimental studies of organic solid forms.The organisers and participants are very grateful to the crystallographers who supplied the candidate structures: Dr. Peter Horton (XXII), Dr. Brian Samas (XXIII), Prof. Bruce Foxman (XXIV), and Prof. Kraig Wheeler (XXV and XXVI). We are also grateful to Dr. Emma Sharp and colleagues at Johnson Matthey (Pharmorphix) for the polymorph screening of XXVI, as well as numerous colleagues at the CCDC for assistance in organising the blind test. Submission 2: We acknowledge Dr. Oliver Korb for numerous useful discussions. Submission 3: The Day group acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility, and associated support services at the University of Southampton, in the completion of this work. We acknowledge funding from the EPSRC (grants EP/J01110X/1 and EP/K018132/1) and the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC through grant agreements n. 307358 (ERC-stG- 2012-ANGLE) and n. 321156 (ERC-AG-PE5-ROBOT). Submission 4: I am grateful to Mikhail Kuzminskii for calculations of molecular structures on Gaussian 98 program in the Institute of Organic Chemistry RAS. The Russian Foundation for Basic Research is acknowledged for financial support (14-03-01091). Submission 5: Toine Schreurs provided computer facilities and assistance. I am grateful to Matthew Habgood at AWE company for providing a travel grant. Submission 6: We would like to acknowledge support of this work by GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, and Vertex. Submission 7: The research was financially supported by the VIDI Research Program 700.10.427, which is financed by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), and the European Research Council (ERC-2010-StG, grant agreement n. 259510-KISMOL). We acknowledge the support of the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (FOM). Supercomputer facilities were provided by the National Computing Facilities Foundation (NCF). Submission 8: Computer resources were provided by the Center for High Performance Computing at the University of Utah and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), supported by NSF grant number ACI-1053575. MBF and GIP acknowledge the support from the University of Buenos Aires and the Argentinian Research Council. Submission 9: We thank Dr. Bouke van Eijck for his valuable advice on our predicted structure of XXV. We thank the promotion office for TUT programs on advanced simulation engineering (ADSIM), the leading program for training brain information architects (BRAIN), and the information and media center (IMC) at Toyohashi University of Technology for the use of the TUT supercomputer systems and application software. We also thank the ACCMS at Kyoto University for the use of their supercomputer. In addition, we wish to thank financial supports from Conflex Corp. and Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Submission 12: We thank Leslie Leiserowitz from the Weizmann Institute of Science and Geoffrey Hutchinson from the University of Pittsburgh for helpful discussions. We thank Adam Scovel at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) for technical support. Work at Tulane University was funded by the Louisiana Board of Regents Award # LEQSF(2014-17)-RD-A-10 “Toward Crystal Engineering from First Principles”, by the NSF award # EPS-1003897 “The Louisiana Alliance for Simulation-Guided Materials Applications (LA-SiGMA)”, and by the Tulane Committee on Research Summer Fellowship. Work at the Technical University of Munich was supported by the Solar Technologies Go Hybrid initiative of the State of Bavaria, Germany. Computer time was provided by the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF), which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Submission 13: This work would not have been possible without funding from Khalifa University’s College of Engineering. I would like to acknowledge Prof. Robert Bennell and Prof. Bayan Sharif for supporting me in acquiring the resources needed to carry out this research. Dr. Louise Price is thanked for her guidance on the use of DMACRYS and NEIGHCRYS during the course of this research. She is also thanked for useful discussions and numerous e-mail exchanges concerning the blind test. Prof. Sarah Price is acknowledged for her support and guidance over many years and for providing access to DMACRYS and NEIGHCRYS. Submission 15: The work was supported by the United Kingdom’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (EP/J003840/1, EP/J014958/1) and was made possible through access to computational resources and support from the High Performance Computing Cluster at Imperial College London. We are grateful to Professor Sarah L. Price for supplying the DMACRYS code for use within CrystalOptimizer, and to her and her research group for support with DMACRYS and feedback on CrystalPredictor and CrystalOptimizer. Submission 16: R. J. N. acknowledges financial support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the U.K. [EP/J017639/1]. R. J. N. and C. J. P. acknowledge use of the Archer facilities of the U.K.’s national high-performance computing service (for which access was obtained via the UKCP consortium [EP/K014560/1]). C. J. P. also acknowledges a Leadership Fellowship Grant [EP/K013688/1]. B. M. acknowledges Robinson College, Cambridge, and the Cambridge Philosophical Society for a Henslow Research Fellowship. Submission 17: The work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1- 0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. The work at the University of Silesia was supported by the Polish National Science Centre Grant No. DEC-2012/05/B/ST4/00086. Submission 18: We would like to thank Constantinos Pantelides, Claire Adjiman and Isaac Sugden of Imperial College for their support of our use of CrystalPredictor and CrystalOptimizer in this and Submission 19. The CSP work of the group is supported by EPSRC, though grant ESPRC EP/K039229/1, and Eli Lilly. The PhD students support: RKH by a joint UCL Max-Planck Society Magdeburg Impact studentship, REW by a UCL Impact studentship; LI by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre and the M3S Centre for Doctoral Training (EPSRC EP/G036675/1). Submission 19: The potential generation work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1-0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 20: The work at New York University was supported, in part, by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-13-1-0387 (MET and LV) and, in part, by the Materials Research Science and Engineering Center (MRSEC) program of the National Science Foundation under Award Number DMR-1420073 (MET and ES). The work at the University of Delaware was supported by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-13-1- 0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 21: We thank the National Science Foundation (DMR-1231586), the Government of Russian Federation (Grant No. 14.A12.31.0003), the Foreign Talents Introduction and Academic Exchange Program (No. B08040) and the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 14-43-00052, base organization Photochemistry Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Calculations were performed on the Rurik supercomputer at Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Submission 22: The computational results presented have been achieved in part using the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC). Submission 24: The potential generation work at the University of Delaware was supported by the Army Research Office under Grant W911NF-13-1-0387 and by the National Science Foundation Grant CHE-1152899. Submission 25: J.H. and A.T. acknowledge the support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under the program DFG-SPP 1807. H-Y.K., R.A.D., and R.C. acknowledge support from the Department of Energy (DOE) under Grant Nos. DE-SC0008626. This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility at Argonne National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-06CH11357. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DEAC02-05CH11231. Additional computational resources were provided by the Terascale Infrastructure for Groundbreaking Research in Science and Engineering (TIGRESS) High Performance Computing Center and Visualization Laboratory at Princeton University.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1107/S2052520616007447