Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Estimation of supply and demand of tertiary education places in advanced digital profiles in the EU

In order to investigate the extent to which the education offer of advanced digital skills in Europe matches labour market needs, this study estimates the supply and demand of university places for studies covering the technological domains of Artificial Intelligence (AI), High Performance Computing (HPC), Cybersecurity (CS) and Data Science (DS), in the EU27, United Kingdom and Norway. The difference between demand and supply of tertiary education places (Bachelor and Master or equivalent level) in the mentioned technological domains is referred in this report as unmet students’ demand of places, or unmet demand. Demanded places, available places and unmet demand are estimated for the following dimensions: (a) the tertiary education level in which this demand is observed: Bachelor and Master or equivalent programmes; (b) the programme’s scope, or depth with which education programmes address the technological domain: broad and specialised; and (c) the main fields of education where this tuition is offered: Business Administration and Law; Natural sciences and Mathematics; Information and Communication Technology (ICT); and Engineering, Manufacturing and Construction, with the remaining fields grouped together in a fifth category. From these estimations, it is concluded that the number of available places in the EU27, at Bachelor level, reaches 587,000 for studies with AI content, 106,000 places offered in HPC, 307,000 places in CS and 444,000 places offered in the domain of DS. At Master level this demand is comparatively lower, except for the DS domain, were it equals the offer at bachelor level. DS outnumbers AI in demand of places at Master level, with 602,000 and 535,000 demanded places, respectively. The unmet demand for AI, HPC, CS and DS in EU27 at MSc level is approximately 150,000, 33,000, 59,000 and 167,000 places, respectively. At BSc level, the unmet demand reaches 273,000, 53,000, 159,000 and 213,000 places, respectively. Another finding is that the unmet demand for broad academic programmes is higher than for specialised programmes of all technological domains and education levels (Bachelor and Master). Higher availability of places for AI, HPC, CS and DS domains is found for academic programmes taught in the ICT field of education, both at Bachelor and Master levels. For Bachelor studies, Germany and Finland are estimated as the countries with the highest unmet demand in AI, HPC, CS and DS, either with a broad or specialised scope. United Kingdom is the only studied country offering places for all fields of education and technological domains at Bachelor level and Master level. For Master studies, this is also found in Germany, Ireland, France and Portugal

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.Comment: Revised version. Recommended for publication in Tectonophysic

Ecocardiografía tridimensional transesofágica en la evaluación del septo interauricular

Transesophageal 3D-echocardiography allows a detailed anatomical observation of the interatrial septum, inclu- ding the remnants of the fetal circulation: the fossa ovalis and the foramen ovale. More than 25% of normal adults present a patent foramen ovale, which under some circumstances may have pathologic relevance. Moreover, most of the structural interventions in the left heart require transseptal crossing of the interatrial septum through the fossa ovalis. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the anatomical features of the interatrial septum, as well as its normal and pathologic variants is definitely required.La ecocardiografía tridimensional transesofágica ha revolucionado la forma en que se observa hoy día el tabique interauricular, permitiendo una visión anatómica (no accesible previamente) de los remanentes de la circulación fetal: fosa oval y foramen oval. Más de un 25% de la población presenta un foramen oval permeable, que ocasionalmente puede tener relevancia clínica. Además, gran parte de los procedimientos de intervencionismo estructural se llevan a cabo por vía transeptal tras la punción de la fosa oval. Por tanto, actualmente resulta necesario tener un adecuado conocimiento de la anatomía del septo interauricular, así como de sus variantes normales y patológicas.                

Risk factors associated with moderate-to-severe renal dysfunction among heart transplant patients: results from the CAPRI study

[Abstract] The longer survival of patients with heart transplantation (HT) favors calcineurin inhibitor–related chronic kidney disease (CKD). It behoves to identify risk factors. At 14 Spanish centers, data on 1062 adult patients with HT (age 59.2 ± 12.3 yr, 82.5% men) were collected at routine follow-up examinations. Glomerular filtration rate, GFR, was estimated using the four-variable MDRD equation, and moderate-or-severe renal dysfunction (MSRD) was defined as K/DOQI stage 3 CKD or worse. Time since transplant ranged from one month to 22 yr (mean 6.7 yr). At assessment, 26.6% of patients were diabetic and 63.9% hypertensive; 53.9% were taking cyclosporine and 33.1% tacrolimus; and 61.4% had MSRD. Among patients on cyclosporine or tacrolimus at assessment, multivariate logistic regression identified male sex (OR 0.44), pre- and post-HT creatinine (2.73 and 3.13 per mg/dL), age at transplant (1.06 per yr), time since transplant (1.05 per yr), and tacrolimus (0.65) as independent positive or negative predictors of MSRD. It is concluded that female sex, pre- and one-month post-HT serum creatinine, age at transplant, time since transplant, and immunosuppression with cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus may all be risk factors for development of CKD ≥ stage 3 by patients with HT

Anti-IL-6 Receptor Tocilizumab in Refractory Graves? Orbitopathy: National Multicenter Observational Study of 48 Patients

Graves’ orbitopathy (GO) is the most common extrathyroidal manifestation of Graves’ disease (GD). Our aim was to assess the e cacy and safety of Tocilizumab (TCZ) in GO refractory to conventional therapy. This was an open-label multicenter study of glucocorticoid-resistant GO treated with TCZ. The main outcomes were the best-corrected visual acuity (BVCA), Clinical Activity Score (CAS) and intraocular pressure (IOP). These outcome variables were assessed at baseline, 1st, 3rd, 6th and 12th month after TCZ therapy onset. The severity of GO was assessed according to the European Group on Graves’ Orbitopathy (EUGOGO). We studied 48 (38 women and 10 men) patients (95 eyes); mean age standard deviation 51 11.8 years. Before TCZ and besides oral glucocorticoids, they had received IV methylprednisolone (n = 43), or selenium (n = 11). GO disease was moderate (n =29) or severe (n = 19) and dysthyroid optic neuropathy (DON) (n = 7). TCZ was used in monotherapy (n = 45) or combined (n = 3) at a dose of 8 mg/kg IV every four weeks (n = 43) or 162 mg/s.c. every week (n = 5). TCZ yielded a significant improvement in all of the main outcomes at the 1st month that was maintained at one year. Comparing the baseline with data at 1 year all of the variables improved; BCVA (0.78 0.25 vs. 0.9 0.16; p = 0.0001), CAS (4.64 1.5 vs. 1.05 1.27; p = 0.0001) and intraocular pressure (IOP) (19.05 4.1 vs. 16.73 3.4 mmHg; p = 0.007). After a mean follow-up of 16.1 2.1 months, low disease activity (CAS 3), was achieved in 88 eyes (92.6%) and TCZ was withdrawn in 29 cases due to low disease activity (n = 25) or ine cacy (n = 4). No serious adverse events were observed. In conclusion, TCZ is a useful and safe therapeutic option in refractory GO treatment.This work was also partially supported by RETICS Programs, RD08/0075 (RIER) and RD12/0009/0013 from “Instituto de Salud Carlos III” (ISCIII) (Spain)

Treatment variability and its relationships to outcomes among patients with Wernicke's encephalopathy: A multicenter retrospective study

Background: Despite guidelines and recommendations, Wernicke's encephalopathy (WE) treatment lacks evidence, leading to clinical practice variability.Aims: Given the overall lack of information on thiamine use for WE treatment, we analyzed data from a large, well-characterized multicenter sample of patients with WE, examining thiamine dosages; factors associated with the use of different doses, frequencies, and routes; and the influence of differences in thiamine treatment on the outcome.Methods: This retrospective study was conducted with data from 443 patients from 21 centers obtained from a nationwide registry of the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine (from 2000 to 2012). Discharge codes and Caine criteria were applied for WE diagnosis, and treatment-related (thiamine dosage, frequency, and route of administration) demographic, clinical, and outcome variables were analyzed.Results: We found marked variability in WE treatment and a low rate of high-dose intravenous thiamine administration. Seventy-eight patients out of 373 (20.9%) received > 300 mg/day of thiamine as initial dose. Patients fulfilling the Caine criteria or presenting with the classic WE triad more frequently received parenteral treatment. Delayed diagnosis (after 24 h hospitalization), the fulfillment of more than two Caine criteria at diagnosis, mental status alterations, and folic acid deficiency were associated significantly with the lack of complete recovery. Malnutrition, reduced consciousness, folic acid deficiency, and the lack of timely thiamine treatment were risk factors for mortality.Conclusions: Our results clearly show extreme variability in thiamine dosages and routes used in the management of WE. Measures should be implemented to ensure adherence to current guidelines and to correct potential nutritional deficits in patients with alcohol use disorders or other risk factors for WE

Plan de Acción Tutorial para nuevos estudiantes de la Facultad de Economía y Empresa

Memoria ID-010. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2021-2022