Invading interfaces and blocking surfaces in high dimensional disordered systems

We study the high-dimensional properties of an invading front in a disordered medium with random pinning forces. We concentrate on interfaces described by bounded slope models belonging to the quenched KPZ universality class. We find a number of qualitative transitions in the behavior of the invasion process as dimensionality increases. In low dimensions $d<6$ the system is characterized by two different roughness exponents, the roughness of individual avalanches and the overall interface roughness. We use the similarity of the dynamics of an avalanche with the dynamics of invasion percolation to show that above $d=6$ avalanches become flat and the invasion is well described as an annealed process with correlated noise. In fact, for $d\geq5$ the overall roughness is the same as the annealed roughness. In very large dimensions, strong fluctuations begin to dominate the size distribution of avalanches, and this phenomenon is studied on the Cayley tree, which serves as an infinite dimensional limit. We present numerical simulations in which we measured the values of the critical exponents of the depinning transition, both in finite dimensional lattices with $d\leq6$ and on the Cayley tree, which support our qualitative predictions. We find that the critical exponents in $d=6$ are very close to their values on the Cayley tree, and we conjecture on this basis the existence of a further dimension, where mean field behavior is obtained.Comment: 12 pages, REVTeX with 2 postscript figure

Positive Feedback, Memory and the Predictability of Earthquakes

We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We introduce and solve analytically a novel simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress. Finally, we present a somewhat speculative figure that tends to support a mechanism based on the decay of stress shadows. This figure suggests that a large earthquake in Southern California of size similar to the 1812 great event is maturing.Comment: PostScript document of 18 pages + 2 eps figure