Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Genetic abnormalities and patterns of antigenic expression in multiple myeloma

Myelomatous plasma cells show a high heterogeneity both in their immunophenotypic characteristics as well as in their cytogenetic features. Thus far, no extensive studies have been carried out to explore whether such antigenic diversity is associated with specific genetic characteristics. We have investigated the relationship between the immunophenotypic profile at plasma cell and both their DNA ploidy status (evaluated by flow cytometry) and specific genetic features (ascertained by fluorescence in situ hybridization) in a large series of 915 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The non-hyperdiploid multiple myeloma group (n = 454, 52%) was associated with a significantly higher frequency of positivity for CD28 and CD20 as well as a higher incidence of CD56- and CD117- cases (P < 0.001). Remarkably, 13q deletion and immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGH) gene rearrangements, which were significantly more common in non-hyperdiploid multiple myeloma, showed a strong association with CD117- cases. IGH translocation to 11q13 was associated with reactivity for CD20 (P < 0.001), down-regulation of CD56 (P < 0.001), and lack of expression of CD117 (P = 0.001). By contrast, IGH translocations to other chromosome partners were almost exclusively found among CD20- and CD117- cases (P < 0.001). These results suggest that genetic categories in multiple myeloma exhibit particular immunophenotypic profiles which in turn are strongly associated with the DNA ploidy status. © 2005 American Association for Cancer Research.Grant support: Spanish FIS grants 01/0089, 01/1161, and G03/136 and MM Jevit S.A. firm.Peer Reviewe

Genetic abnormalities and patterns of antigenic expression in multiple myeloma

Myelomatous plasma cells show a high heterogeneity both in their immunophenotypic characteristics as well as in their cytogenetic features. Thus far, no extensive studies have been carried out to explore whether such antigenic diversity is associated with specific genetic characteristics. We have investigated the relationship between the immunophenotypic profile at plasma cell and both their DNA ploidy status (evaluated by flow cytometry) and specific genetic features (ascertained by fluorescence in situ hybridization) in a large series of 915 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The non-hyperdiploid multiple myeloma group (n = 454, 52%) was associated with a significantly higher frequency of positivity for CD28 and CD20 as well as a higher incidence of CD56- and CD117- cases (P < 0.001). Remarkably, 13q deletion and immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGH) gene rearrangements, which were significantly more common in non-hyperdiploid multiple myeloma, showed a strong association with CD117- cases. IGH translocation to 11q13 was associated with reactivity for CD20 (P < 0.001), down-regulation of CD56 (P < 0.001), and lack of expression of CD117 (P = 0.001). By contrast, IGH translocations to other chromosome partners were almost exclusively found among CD20- and CD117- cases (P < 0.001). These results suggest that genetic categories in multiple myeloma exhibit particular immunophenotypic profiles which in turn are strongly associated with the DNA ploidy status. © 2005 American Association for Cancer Research.Grant support: Spanish FIS grants 01/0089, 01/1161, and G03/136 and MM Jevit S.A. firm.Peer Reviewe

More than 2% of circulating tumor plasma cells defines plasma cell leukemia-like multiple myeloma

PURPOSEPrimary plasma cell leukemia (PCL) is the most aggressive monoclonal gammopathy. It was formerly characterized by >= 20% circulating plasma cells (CTCs) until 2021, when this threshold was decreased to >= 5%. We hypothesized that primary PCL is not a separate clinical entity, but rather that it represents ultra-high-risk multiple myeloma (MM) characterized by elevated CTC levels.METHODSWe assessed the levels of CTCs by multiparameter flow cytometry in 395 patients with newly diagnosed transplant-ineligible MM to establish a cutoff for CTCs that identifies the patients with ultra-high-risk PCL-like MM. We tested the cutoff on 185 transplant-eligible patients with MM and further validated on an independent cohort of 280 transplant-ineligible patients treated in the GEM-CLARIDEX trial. The largest published real-world cohort of patients with primary PCL was used for comparison of survival. Finally, we challenged the current 5% threshold for primary PCL diagnosis.RESULTSNewly diagnosed transplant-ineligible patients with MM with 2%-20% CTCs had significantly shorter progression-free survival (3.1 v 15.6 months; P = 2% CTCs is a biomarker of hidden primary PCL and supports the assessment of CTCs by flow cytometry during the diagnostic workup of MM

Molecular profiling of immunoglobulin heavychain gene rearrangements unveils new potential prognostic markers for multiple myeloma patients

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease whose pathogenesis has not been completely elucidated. Although B-cell receptors play a crucial role in myeloma pathogenesis, the impact of clonal immunoglobulin heavy-chain features in the outcome has not been extensively explored. Here we present the characterization of complete heavychain gene rearrangements in 413 myeloma patients treated in Spanish trials, including 113 patients characterized by next-generation sequencing. Compared to the normal B-cell repertoire, gene selection was biased in myeloma, with significant overrepresentation of IGHV3, IGHD2 and IGHD3, as well as IGHJ4 gene groups. Hypermutation was high in our patients (median: 8.8%). Interestingly, regarding patients who are not candidates for transplantation, a high hypermutation rate (≥7%) and the use of IGHD2 and IGHD3 groups were associated with improved prognostic features and longer survival rates in the univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis revealed prolonged progression-free survival rates for patients using IGHD2/IGHD3 groups (HR: 0.552, 95% CI: 0.361−0.845, p = 0.006), as well as prolonged overall survival rates for patients with hypermutation ≥7% (HR: 0.291, 95% CI: 0.137−0.618, p = 0.001). Our results provide new insights into the molecular characterization of multiple myeloma, highlighting the need to evaluate some of these clonal rearrangement characteristics as new potential prognostic markers

Molecular profiling of immunoglobulin heavychain gene rearrangements unveils new potential prognostic markers for multiple myeloma patients

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease whose pathogenesis has not been completely elucidated. Although B-cell receptors play a crucial role in myeloma pathogenesis, the impact of clonal immunoglobulin heavy-chain features in the outcome has not been extensively explored. Here we present the characterization of complete heavychain gene rearrangements in 413 myeloma patients treated in Spanish trials, including 113 patients characterized by next-generation sequencing. Compared to the normal B-cell repertoire, gene selection was biased in myeloma, with significant overrepresentation of IGHV3, IGHD2 and IGHD3, as well as IGHJ4 gene groups. Hypermutation was high in our patients (median: 8.8%). Interestingly, regarding patients who are not candidates for transplantation, a high hypermutation rate (≥7%) and the use of IGHD2 and IGHD3 groups were associated with improved prognostic features and longer survival rates in the univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis revealed prolonged progression-free survival rates for patients using IGHD2/IGHD3 groups (HR: 0.552, 95% CI: 0.361−0.845, p = 0.006), as well as prolonged overall survival rates for patients with hypermutation ≥7% (HR: 0.291, 95% CI: 0.137−0.618, p = 0.001). Our results provide new insights into the molecular characterization of multiple myeloma, highlighting the need to evaluate some of these clonal rearrangement characteristics as new potential prognostic markers