172 research outputs found

    Stochastic Simulation of Economic Growth Effects of Social Security Reform

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    Профессору М. В. Коровкину - 60 лет

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    15 июля 1952 г. исполнилось 60 лет профессору кафедры геологии и разведки полезных ископаемых и кафедры организации и технологии высшего профессионального образования, главному эксперту информационно-аналитического управления ТПУ Михаилу Владимировичу Коровкину

    1994-95 Advisory Council on Social Security Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods Final Report

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    The Panel\u27s major conclusions are: The intermediate projection of the Trustees Report for the Old-Age. Survivors. and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program provide a reasonable evaluation of the financial status. Although the Panel suggests that modifications be considered in various specific assumptions, the overall effect of those suggestions would not significantly change the financial status evaluation. There should be evolutionary implementation of procedures to indicate more adequately the uncertainties involved in the projections. Even though such uncertainties are unavoidable, stochastic analysis should be used to examine more explicitly the probabilities of alternative projections. It is emphasized that there should be an extended period during which the new procedures would supplement, rather than replace, the current methods of considering high-cost and low-cost projections and individual assumption sensitivity analysis. Evaluation of the long-range financial status should put less emphasis on the 75-year actuarial balance and the test of long-range close actuarial balance. Prior to enactment of legislation reforming the program, primary emphasis should be on the projected date the Trust Fund Ratio would fall below 100 percent; when definitive legislative revisions are adopted, subsequent long-range evaluation should compare up-dated projections with the intended results of the legislation. There should be a substantial expansion of SSA\u27s resources and its interaction with experts in related areas: increased recognition should be given to the interrelationships between OASDI and many public and private programs as well as other aspects of the economy. Social Security Administration (SSA) staff does high quality work, but is relatively small and works with inadequate resources. In addition to internal expansion, there should be greater use of outside consultants and contractual research; periodic comprehensive review by technical panels should be supplemented by ongoing arrangements for advice on specific matters

    Kierkegaard and the Search for Self-Knowledge

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    In the first part of this essay (Sections I and II), I argue that Kierkegaard's work helps us to articulate and defend two basic requirements on searching for knowledge of one's own judgements: first, that searching for knowledge whether one judges that P requires trying to make a judgement whether P; and second that, in an important range of cases, searching for knowledge of one's own judgements requires attending to how one's acts of judging are performed. In the second part of the essay (Sections III and IV), I consider two prima facie problems regarding this conception of searching for knowledge of one's own judgements. The first problem concerns how in general one can coherently try to meet both these requirements at once; the second, how in particular one can try to attend to one's own acts of judging. I show how Kierkegaard's work is alive to both these problems, and helps us to see how they can be resolved. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

    Sediment properties as important predictors of carbon storage in zostera marina meadows: a comparison of four European areas

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    Seagrass ecosystems are important natural carbon sinks but their efficiency varies greatly depending on species composition and environmental conditions. What causes this variation is not fully known and could have important implications for management and protection of the seagrass habitat to continue to act as a natural carbon sink. Here, we assessed sedimentary organic carbon in Zostera marina meadows (and adjacent unvegetated sediment) in four distinct areas of Europe (Gullmar Fjord on the Swedish Skagerrak coast, Asko in the Baltic Sea, Sozopol in the Black Sea and Ria Formosa in southern Portugal) down to similar to 35 cm depth. We also tested how sedimentary organic carbon in Z. marina meadows relates to different sediment characteristics, a range of seagrass-associated variables and water depth. The seagrass carbon storage varied greatly among areas, with an average organic carbon content ranging from 2.79 +/- 0.50% in the Gullmar Fjord to 0.17 +/- 0.02% in the area of Sozopol. We found that a high proportion of fine grain size, high porosity and low density of the sediment is strongly related to high carbon content in Z. marina sediment. We suggest that sediment properties should be included as an important factor when evaluating high priority areas in management of Z. marina generated carbon sinks

    Dark soliton scattering in symmetric and asymmetric double potential barriers

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    The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Motivated by the recent theoretical study of (bright) soliton diode effects in systems with multiple scatterers, as well as by experimental investigations of soliton-impurity interactions, we consider some prototypical case examples of interactions of dark solitons with a pair of scatterers. In a way fundamentally opposite to the case of bright solitons (but consonant to their “anti-particle character”), we find that dark solitons accelerate as they pass the first barrier and hence cannot be trapped by a second equal-height barrier. A pair of unequal barriers may lead to reflection from the second one, however trapping in the inter-barrier region cannot occur. We also give some examples of dynamical adjusting of the barriers to trap the dark soliton in the inter-barrier region, yet we show that this can only occur over finite time horizons, with the dark soliton always escaping eventually, contrary again to what is potentially the case with bright solitons

    Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report

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    Background Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define—for the first time—the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. Methods and findings The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries—who only made up 21% of the total attendees. Conclusions To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators—at the basic level—should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.publishedVersio

    Blue Carbon Storage Capacity of Temperate Eelgrass (Zostera marina) Meadows

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    Despite the importance of coastal ecosystems for the global carbon budgets, knowledge of their carbon storage capacity and the factors driving variability in storage capacity is still limited. Here we provide an estimate on the magnitude and variability of carbon stocks within a widely distributed marine foundation species throughout its distribution area in temperate Northern Hemisphere. We sampled 54 eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows, spread across eight ocean margins and 36° of latitude, to determine abiotic and biotic factors influencing organic carbon (Corg) stocks in Zostera marina sediments. The Corg stocks (integrated over 25‐cm depth) showed a large variability and ranged from 318 to 26,523 g C/m2 with an average of 2,721 g C/m2. The projected Corg stocks obtained by extrapolating over the top 1 m of sediment ranged between 23.1 and 351.7 Mg C/ha, which is in line with estimates for other seagrasses and other blue carbon ecosystems. Most of the variation in Corg stocks was explained by five environmental variables (sediment mud content, dry density and degree of sorting, and salinity and water depth), while plant attributes such as biomass and shoot density were less important to Corg stocks. Carbon isotopic signatures indicated that at most sites <50% of the sediment carbon is derived from seagrass, which is lower than reported previously for seagrass meadows. The high spatial carbon storage variability urges caution in extrapolating carbon storage capacity between geographical areas as well as within and between seagrass species

    2013 WSES guidelines for management of intra-abdominal infections

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