Fast biases in monsoon rainfall over southern and central India in the Met Office Unified Model

The Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is known to produce too little total rainfall on average over India during the Monsoon period, when assessed for multi-year climate simulations. We investigate how quickly this dry bias appears by assessing the 5-day operational forecasts produced by the MetUM for six different years. It is found that the MetUM shows a drying tendency across the five days of the forecasts, for all of the six years (which correspond to two different model versions). We then calculate each term in the moisture budget, for a region covering southern and central India, where the dry bias is worst in both climate simulations and weather forecasts. By looking at how the terms vary with forecast lead time, we are able to identify biases in the weather forecasts that have been previously identified in climate simulations using the same model, and we attempt to quantify how these biases lead to a reduction in total rainfall. In particular, an anticyclonic bias develops to the east of India throughout the forecast, and has a complex effect on the moisture available over the peninsula, and a reduction in the wind speed into the west of the region appears after about 3 days, indicative of upstream effects. In addition we find a new bias that the air advected from the west is too dry from very early in the forecast, and this has an important effect on the rainfall

Beef production from feedstuffs conserved using new technologies to reduce negative environmental impacts

End of project reportMost (ca. 86%) Irish farms make some silage. Besides directly providing feed for livestock, the provision of grass silage within integrated grassland systems makes an important positive contribution to effective grazing management and improved forage utilisation by grazing animals, and to effective feed budgeting by farmers. It can also contribute to maintaining the content of desirable species in pastures, and to livestock not succumbing to parasites at sensitive times of the year. Furthermore, the optimal recycling of nutrients collected from housed livestock can often be best achieved by spreading the manures on the land used for producing the conserved feed. On most Irish farms, grass silage will remain the main conserved forage for feeding to livestock during winter for the foreseeable future. However, on some farms high yields of whole-crop (i.e. grain + straw) cereals such as wheat, barley and triticale, and of forage maize, will be an alternative option provided that losses during harvesting, storage and feedout are minimised and that input costs are restrained. These alternative forages have the potential to reliably support high levels of animal performance while avoiding the production of effluent. Their production and use however will need to advantageously integrate into ruminant production systems. A range of technologies can be employed for crop production and conservation, and for beef production, and the optimal options need to be identified. Beef cattle being finished indoors are offered concentrate feedstuffs at rates that range from modest inputs through to ad libitum access. Such concentrates frequently contain high levels of cereals such as barley or wheat. These cereals are generally between 14% to 18% moisture content and tend to be rolled shortly before being included in coarse rations or are more finely processed prior to pelleting. Farmers thinking of using ‘high-moisture grain’ techniques for preserving and processing cereal grains destined for feeding to beef cattle need to know how the yield, conservation efficiency and feeding value of such grains compares with grains conserved using more conventional techniques. European Union policy strongly encourages a sustainable and multifunctional agriculture. Therefore, in addition to providing European consumers with quality food produced within approved systems, agriculture must also contribute positively to the conservation of natural resources and the upkeep of the rural landscape. Plastics are widely used in agriculture and their post-use fate on farms must not harm the environment - they must be managed to support the enduring sustainability of farming systems. There is an absence of information on the efficacy of some new options for covering and sealing silage with plastic sheeting and tyres, and an absence of an inventory of the use, re-use and post-use fate of plastic film on farms. Irish cattle farmers operate a large number of beef production systems, half of which use dairy bred calves. In the current, continuously changing production and market conditions, new beef systems must be considered. A computer package is required that will allow the rapid, repeatable simulation and assessment of alternate beef production systems using appropriate, standardised procedures. There is thus a need to construct, evaluate and utilise computer models of components of beef production systems and to develop mathematical relationships to link system components into a network that would support their integration into an optimal system model. This will provide a framework to integrate physical and financial on-farm conditions with models for estimating feed supply and animal growth patterns. Cash flow and profit/loss results will be developed. This will help identify optimal systems, indicate the cause of failure of imperfect systems and identify areas where applied research data are currently lacking, or more basic research is required

Mid-infrared spectral evidence for a luminous dust enshrouded source in Arp220

We have re-analyzed the 6-12 micron ISO spectrum of the ultra-luminous infrared galaxy Arp220 with the conclusion that it is not consistent with that of a scaled up version of a typical starburst. Instead, both template fitting with spectra of the galaxies NGC4418 and M83 and with dust models suggest that it is best represented by combinations of a typical starburst component, exhibiting PAH emission features, and a heavily absorbed dust continuum which contributes ~40% of the 6-12 micron flux and likely dominates the luminosity. Of particular significance relative to previous studies of Arp220 is the fact that the emission feature at 7.7 micron comprises both PAH emission and a broader component resulting from ice and silicate absorption against a heavily absorbed continuum. Extinction to the PAH emitting source, however, appears to be relatively low. We tentatively associate the PAH emitting and heavily dust/ice absorbed components with the diffuse emission region and the two compact nuclei respectively identified by Soifer et al. (2002) in their higher spatial resolution 10 micron study. Both the similarity of the absorbed continuum with that of the embedded Galactic protostars and results of the dust models imply that the embedded source(s) in Arp220 could be powered by, albeit extremely dense, starburst activity. Due to the high extinction, it is not possible with the available data to exclude that AGN(s) also contribute some or all of the observed luminosity. In this case, however, the upper limit measured for its hard X-ray emission would require Arp220 to be the most highly obscured AGN known.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A. Also available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~spoon/publications.htm

The Third wave in globalization theory

This essay examines a proposition made in the literature that there are three waves in globalization theory—the globalist, skeptical, and postskeptical or transformational waves—and argues that this division requires a new look. The essay is a critique of the third of these waves and its relationship with the second wave. Contributors to the third wave not only defend the idea of globalization from criticism by the skeptics but also try to construct a more complex and qualified theory of globalization than provided by first-wave accounts. The argument made here is that third-wave authors come to conclusions that try to defend globalization yet include qualifications that in practice reaffirm skeptical claims. This feature of the literature has been overlooked in debates and the aim of this essay is to revisit the literature and identify as well as discuss this problem. Such a presentation has political implications. Third wavers propose globalist cosmopolitan democracy when the substance of their arguments does more in practice to bolster the skeptical view of politics based on inequality and conflict, nation-states and regional blocs, and alliances of common interest or ideology rather than cosmopolitan global structures

Gene regulatory network analysis predicts cooperating transcription factor regulons required for FLT3-ITD+ AML growth

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease caused by different mutations. Previously, we showed that each mutational subtype develops its specific gene regulatory network (GRN) with transcription factors interacting within multiple gene modules, many of which are transcription factor genes themselves. Here, we hypothesize that highly connected nodes within such networks comprise crucial regulators of AML maintenance. We test this hypothesis using FLT3-ITD-mutated AML as a model and conduct an shRNA drop-out screen informed by this analysis. We show that AML-specific GRNs predict crucial regulatory modules required for AML growth. Furthermore, our work shows that all modules are highly connected and regulate each other. The careful multi-omic analysis of the role of one (RUNX1) module by shRNA and chemical inhibition shows that this transcription factor and its target genes stabilize the GRN of FLT3-ITD+ AML and that its removal leads to GRN collapse and cell death.</p

Serous cystic neoplasm of the pancreas: A multinational study of 2622 patients under the auspices of the International Association of Pancreatology and European Pancreatic Club (European Study Group on Cystic Tumors of the Pancreas)

OBJECTIVES: Serous cystic neoplasm (SCN) is a cystic neoplasm of the pancreas whose natural history is poorly known. The purpose of the study was to attempt to describe the natural history of SCN, including the specific mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective multinational study including SCN diagnosed between 1990 and 2014. RESULTS: 2622 patients were included. Seventy-four per cent were women, and median age at diagnosis was 58\u2005years (16-99). Patients presented with non-specific abdominal pain (27%), pancreaticobiliary symptoms (9%), diabetes mellitus (5%), other symptoms (4%) and/or were asymptomatic (61%). Fifty-two per cent of patients were operated on during the first year after diagnosis (median size: 40\u2005mm (2-200)), 9% had resection beyond 1\u2005year of follow-up (3\u2005years (1-20), size at diagnosis: 25\u2005mm (4-140)) and 39% had no surgery (3.6\u2005years (1-23), 25.5\u2005mm (1-200)). Surgical indications were (not exclusive) uncertain diagnosis (60%), symptoms (23%), size increase (12%), large size (6%) and adjacent organ compression (5%). In patients followed beyond 1\u2005year (n=1271), size increased in 37% (growth rate: 4\u2005mm/year), was stable in 57% and decreased in 6%. Three serous cystadenocarcinomas were recorded. Postoperative mortality was 0.6% (n=10), and SCN's related mortality was 0.1% (n=1). CONCLUSIONS: After a 3-year follow-up, clinical relevant symptoms occurred in a very small proportion of patients and size slowly increased in less than half. Surgical treatment should be proposed only for diagnosis remaining uncertain after complete workup, significant and related symptoms or exceptionally when exists concern with malignancy. This study supports an initial conservative management in the majority of patients with SCN

Exploring the active galactic nucleus and starburst content of local ultraluminous infrared galaxies through 5-8 micron spectroscopy

We present a 5-8 micron analysis of the Spitzer-IRS spectra of 71 ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) with redshift z < 0.15, devoted to the study of the role of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and starbursts (SB) as the power source of the extreme infrared emission. Around 5 micron an AGN is much brighter (by a factor 30) than a starburst of equal bolometric luminosity. This allows us to detect the presence of even faint accretion-driven cores inside ULIRGs: signatures of AGN activity are found in 70 per cent of our sample (50/71 sources). Through a simple analytical model we are also able to obtain a quantitative estimate of the AGN/SB contribution to the overall energy output of each source. Although the main fraction of ULIRG luminosity is confirmed to arise from star formation events, the AGN contribution is non-negligible (23 per cent) and is shown to increase with luminosity. The existence of a rather heterogeneous pattern in the composition and geometrical structure of the dust among ULIRGs is newly supported by the comparison between individual absorption features and continuum extinction.Comment: 56 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Optical Coherence Tomography in the UK Biobank Study – Rapid Automated Analysis of Retinal Thickness for Large Population-Based Studies

Purpose: To describe an approach to the use of optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging in large, population-based studies, including methods for OCT image acquisition, storage, and the remote, rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness. Methods: In UK Biobank, OCT images were acquired between 2009 and 2010 using a commercially available “spectral domain” OCT device (3D OCT-1000, Topcon). Images were obtained using a raster scan protocol, 6 mm x 6 mm in area, and consisting of 128 B-scans. OCT image sets were stored on UK Biobank servers in a central repository, adjacent to high performance computers. Rapid, automated analysis of retinal thickness was performed using custom image segmentation software developed by the Topcon Advanced Biomedical Imaging Laboratory (TABIL). This software employs dual-scale gradient information to allow for automated segmentation of nine intraretinal boundaries in a rapid fashion. Results: 67,321 participants (134,642 eyes) in UK Biobank underwent OCT imaging of both eyes as part of the ocular module. 134,611 images were successfully processed with 31 images failing segmentation analysis due to corrupted OCT files or withdrawal of subject consent for UKBB study participation. Average time taken to call up an image from the database and complete segmentation analysis was approximately 120 seconds per data set per login, and analysis of the entire dataset was completed in approximately 28 days. Conclusions: We report an approach to the rapid, automated measurement of retinal thickness from nearly 140,000 OCT image sets from the UK Biobank. In the near future, these measurements will be publically available for utilization by researchers around the world, and thus for correlation with the wealth of other data collected in UK Biobank. The automated analysis approaches we describe may be of utility for future large population-based epidemiological studies, clinical trials, and screening programs that employ OCT imaging

Quantitative association tests of immune responses to antigens of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a study of twins in West Africa.

There is now considerable evidence that host genetic factors are important in determining the outcome of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). The aim of this study was to assess the role of several candidate genes in the variation observed in the immune responses to MTB antigens. In-vitro assays of T-cell proliferation, an in-vivo intradermal delayed hypersensitivity response; cytokine and antibody secretions to several mycobacterial peptide antigens were assessed in healthy, but exposed, West African twins. Candidate gene polymorphisms were typed in the NRAMP1, Vitamin D receptor, IL10, IL4, IL4 receptor and CTLA-4 genes. Variants of the loci IL10 (-1082 G/A), CTLA-4 (49 A/G) and the IL4 receptor (128 A/G) showed significant associations with immune responses to several antigens. T-cell proliferative responses and antibody responses were reduced, TNF-alpha responses were increased for subjects with the CTLA-4 G allele. The T-cell proliferative responses of subjects with IL10 GA and GG genotypes differed significantly. IL4 receptor AG and GG genotypes also showed significant differences in their T-cell proliferative responses to MTB antigens. These results yield a greater understanding of the genetic mechanisms that underlie the immune responses in tuberculosis and have implications for the design of therapeutic interventions

Associations with photoreceptor thickness measures in the UK Biobank.

Spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) provides high resolution images enabling identification of individual retinal layers. We included 32,923 participants aged 40-69 years old from UK Biobank. Questionnaires, physical examination, and eye examination including SD-OCT imaging were performed. SD OCT measured photoreceptor layer thickness includes photoreceptor layer thickness: inner nuclear layer-retinal pigment epithelium (INL-RPE) and the specific sublayers of the photoreceptor: inner nuclear layer-external limiting membrane (INL-ELM); external limiting membrane-inner segment outer segment (ELM-ISOS); and inner segment outer segment-retinal pigment epithelium (ISOS-RPE). In multivariate regression models, the total average INL-RPE was observed to be thinner in older aged, females, Black ethnicity, smokers, participants with higher systolic blood pressure, more negative refractive error, lower IOPcc and lower corneal hysteresis. The overall INL-ELM, ELM-ISOS and ISOS-RPE thickness was significantly associated with sex and race. Total average of INL-ELM thickness was additionally associated with age and refractive error, while ELM-ISOS was additionally associated with age, smoking status, SBP and refractive error; and ISOS-RPE was additionally associated with smoking status, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis. Hence, we found novel associations of ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, refraction, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis with photoreceptor thickness