Survival and Neural Models for Private Equity Exit Prediction

Within the Private Equity (PE) market, the event of a private company undertaking an Initial Public Offering (IPO) is usually a very high-return one for the investors in the company. For this reason, an effective predictive model for the IPO event is considered as a valuable tool in the PE market, an endeavor in which publicly available quantitative information is generally scarce. In this paper, we describe a data-analytic procedure for predicting the probability with which a company will go public in a given forward period of time. The proposed method is based on the interplay of a neural network (NN) model for estimating the overall event probability, and Survival Analysis (SA) for further modeling the probability of the IPO event in any given interval of time. The proposed neuro-survival model is tuned and tested across nine industrial sectors using real data from the Thomson Reuters Eikon PE database

Nonlinear excitations in arrays of Bose-Einstein condensates

The dynamics of localized excitations in array of Bose-Einstein condensates is investigated in the framework of the nonlinear lattice theory. The existence of temporarily stable ground states displaying an atomic population distributions localized on very few lattice sites (intrinsic localized modes), as well as, of atomic population distributions involving many lattice sites (envelope solitons), is studied both numerically and analytically. The origin and properties of these modes are shown to be inherently connected with the interplay between macroscopic quantum tunnelling and nonlinearity induced self-trapping of atoms in coupled BECs. The phenomenon of Bloch oscillations of these excitations is studied both for zero and non zero backgrounds. We find that in a definite range of parameters, homogeneous distributions can become modulationally unstable. We also show that bright solitons and excitations of shock wave type can exist in BEC arrays even in the case of positive scattering length. Finally, we argue that BEC array with negative scattering length in presence of linear potentials can display collapse.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Stream diatom biodiversity in islands and continents—A global perspective on effects of area, isolation and environment

Aim The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most distinctive biogeographic patterns, but global comparisons of the SARs between island and mainland are lacking for microbial taxa. Here, we explore whether the form of the SAR and the drivers of species richness, including area, environmental heterogeneity, climate and physico-chemistry, differ between islands and similarly sized areas on mainland, referred to as continental area equivalents (CAEs). Location Global. Taxon Stream benthic diatoms. Methods We generated CAEs on six continental datasets and examined the SARs of CAEs and islands (ISAR). Then, we compared CAEs and islands in terms of total richness and richness of different ecological guilds. We tested the factors contributing to richness in islands and CAEs with regressions. We used structural equation models to determine the effects of area versus environmental heterogeneity, climate and local conditions on species richness. Results We found a non-significant ISAR, but a significant positive SAR in CAEs. Richness in islands was related to productivity. Richness in CAEs was mainly dependent on area and climate, but not directly on environmental heterogeneity. Species richness within guilds exhibited inconsistent relationships with island isolation and area. Main conclusions Ecological and evolutionary processes shaping diatom island biogeography do not depend on area at the worldwide scale probably due to the presence of distinct species pool across islands. Conversely, area was an important driver of diatom richness in continents, and this effect could be attributed to dispersal. Continents had greater richness than islands, but this was a consequence of differences in environmental conditions such as specific island climatic conditions. We stress the need for more island data on benthic diatoms, particularly from archipelagos, to better understand the biogeography of this most speciose group of algae

Discrete Breathers

Nonlinear classical Hamiltonian lattices exhibit generic solutions in the form of discrete breathers. These solutions are time-periodic and (typically exponentially) localized in space. The lattices exhibit discrete translational symmetry. Discrete breathers are not confined to certain lattice dimensions. Necessary ingredients for their occurence are the existence of upper bounds on the phonon spectrum (of small fluctuations around the groundstate) of the system as well as the nonlinearity in the differential equations. We will present existence proofs, formulate necessary existence conditions, and discuss structural stability of discrete breathers. The following results will be also discussed: the creation of breathers through tangent bifurcation of band edge plane waves; dynamical stability; details of the spatial decay; numerical methods of obtaining breathers; interaction of breathers with phonons and electrons; movability; influence of the lattice dimension on discrete breather properties; quantum lattices - quantum breathers. Finally we will formulate a new conceptual aproach capable of predicting whether discrete breather exist for a given system or not, without actually solving for the breather. We discuss potential applications in lattice dynamics of solids (especially molecular crystals), selective bond excitations in large molecules, dynamical properties of coupled arrays of Josephson junctions, and localization of electromagnetic waves in photonic crystals with nonlinear response.Comment: 62 pages, LaTeX, 14 ps figures. Physics Reports, to be published; see also at http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de/~flach/html/preprints.htm

Chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid correlate with cerebral metabolite patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Chemokines influence HIV neuropathogenesis by affecting the HIV life cycle, trafficking of macrophages into the nervous system, glial activation, and neuronal signaling and repair processes; however, knowledge of their relationship to in vivo measures of cerebral injury is limited. The primary objective of this study was to determine the relationship between a panel of chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and cerebral metabolites measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals. One hundred seventy-one stored CSF specimens were assayed from HIV-infected individuals who were enrolled in two ACTG studies that evaluated the relationship between neuropsychological performance and cerebral metabolites. Concentrations of six chemokines (fractalkine, IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1β, and SDF-1) were measured and compared with cerebral metabolites individually and as composite neuronal, basal ganglia, and inflammatory patterns. IP-10 and MCP-1 were the chemokines most strongly associated with individual cerebral metabolites. Specifically, (1) higher IP-10 levels correlated with lower N-acetyl aspartate (NAA)/creatine (Cr) ratios in the frontal white matter and higher MI/Cr ratios in all three brain regions considered and (2) higher MCP-1 levels correlated with lower NAA/Cr ratios in frontal white matter and the parietal cortex. IP-10, MCP-1, and IL-8 had the strongest associations with patterns of cerebral metabolites. In particular, higher levels of IP-10 correlated with lower neuronal pattern scores and higher basal ganglia and inflammatory pattern scores, the same pattern which has been associated with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND). Subgroup analysis indicated that the effects of IP-10 and IL-8 were influenced by effective antiretroviral therapy and that memantine treatment may mitigate the neuronal effects of IP-10. This study supports the role of chemokines in HAND and the validity of MRS as an assessment tool. In particular, the findings identify relationships between the immune response—particularly an interferon-inducible chemokine, IP-10—and cerebral metabolites and suggest that antiretroviral therapy and memantine modify the impact of the immune response on neurons

Genome-wide association analysis of dementia and its clinical endophenotypes reveal novel loci associated with Alzheimer's disease and three causality networks: The GR@ACE project

Introduction: Large variability among Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases might impact genetic discoveries and complicate dissection of underlying biological pathways. Methods: Genome Research at Fundacio ACE (GR@ACE) is a genome-wide study of dementia and its clinical endophenotypes, defined based on AD's clinical certainty and vascular burden. We assessed the impact of known AD loci across endophenotypes to generate loci categories. We incorporated gene coexpression data and conducted pathway analysis per category. Finally, to evaluate the effect of heterogeneity in genetic studies, GR@ACE series were meta-analyzed with additional genome-wide association study data sets. Results: We classified known AD loci into three categories, which might reflect the disease clinical heterogeneity. Vascular processes were only detected as a causal mechanism in probable AD. The meta-analysis strategy revealed the ANKRD31-rs4704171 and NDUFAF6-rs10098778 and confirmed SCIMP-rs7225151 and CD33-rs3865444. Discussion: The regulation of vasculature is a prominent causal component of probable AD. GR@ACE meta-analysis revealed novel AD genetic signals, strongly driven by the presence of clinical heterogeneity in the AD series

Clinical reporting following the quantification of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease: An international overview

Introduction: The current practice of quantifying cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers as an aid in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) varies from center to center. For a same biochemical profile, interpretation and reporting of results may differ, which can lead to misunderstandings and raises questions about the commutability of tests. Methods: We obtained a description of (pre-)analytical protocols and sample reports from 40 centers worldwide. A consensus approach allowed us to propose harmonized comments corresponding to the different CSF biomarker profiles observed in patients. Results: The (pre-)analytical procedures were similar between centers. There was considerable heterogeneity in cutoff definitions and report comments. We therefore identified and selected by consensus the most accurate and informative comments regarding the interpretation of CSF biomarkers in the context of AD diagnosis. Discussion: This is the first time that harmonized reports are proposed across worldwide specialized laboratories involved in the biochemical diagnosis of AD

Paramedic assessment of pain in the cognitively impaired adult patient

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Paramedics are often a first point of contact for people experiencing pain in the community. Wherever possible the patient's self report of pain should be sought to guide the assessment and management of this complaint. Communication difficulty or disability such as cognitive impairment associated with dementia may limit the patient's ability to report their pain experience, and this has the potential to affect the quality of care. The primary objective of this study was to systematically locate evidence relating to the use of pain assessment tools that have been validated for use with cognitively impaired adults and to identify those that have been recommended for use by paramedics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic search of health databases for evidence relating to the use of pain assessment tools that have been validated for use with cognitively impaired adults was undertaken using specific search criteria. An extended search included position statements and clinical practice guidelines developed by health agencies to identify evidence-based recommendations regarding pain assessment in older adults.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two systematic reviews met study inclusion criteria. Weaknesses in tools evaluated by these studies limited their application in assessing pain in the population of interest. Only one tool was designed to assess pain in acute care settings. No tools were located that are designed for paramedic use.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reviews of pain assessment tools found that the majority were developed to assess chronic pain in aged care, hospital or hospice settings. An analysis of the characteristics of these pain assessment tools identified attributes that may limit their use in paramedic practice. One tool - the Abbey Pain Scale - may have application in paramedic assessment of pain, but clinical evaluation is required to validate this tool in the paramedic practice setting. Further research is recommended to evaluate the Abbey Pain Scale and to evaluate the effectiveness of paramedic pain management practice in older adults to ensure that the care of all patients is unaffected by age or disability.</p

Genome-wide analyses reveal a potential role for the <em>MAPT</em>, <em>MOBP</em>, and <em>APOE </em>loci in sporadic frontotemporal dementia

\ua9 2024 The Author(s)Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is the second most common cause of early-onset dementia after Alzheimer disease (AD). Efforts in the field mainly focus on familial forms of disease (fFTDs), while studies of the genetic etiology of sporadic FTD (sFTD) have been less common. In the current work, we analyzed 4,685 sFTD cases and 15,308 controls looking for common genetic determinants for sFTD. We found a cluster of variants at the MAPT (rs199443; p = 2.5 7 10−12, OR = 1.27) and APOE (rs6857; p = 1.31 7 10−12, OR = 1.27) loci and a candidate locus on chromosome 3 (rs1009966; p = 2.41 7 10−8, OR = 1.16) in the intergenic region between RPSA and MOBP, contributing to increased risk for sFTD through effects on expression and/or splicing in brain cortex of functionally relevant in-cis genes at the MAPT and RPSA-MOBP loci. The association with the MAPT (H1c clade) and RPSA-MOBP loci may suggest common genetic pleiotropy across FTD and progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) (MAPT and RPSA-MOBP loci) and across FTD, AD, Parkinson disease (PD), and cortico-basal degeneration (CBD) (MAPT locus). Our data also suggest population specificity of the risk signals, with MAPT and APOE loci associations mainly driven by Central/Nordic and Mediterranean Europeans, respectively. This study lays the foundations for future work aimed at further characterizing population-specific features of potential FTD-discriminant APOE haplotype(s) and the functional involvement and contribution of the MAPT H1c haplotype and RPSA-MOBP loci to pathogenesis of sporadic forms of FTD in brain cortex