Bayesian Methods for Exoplanet Science

Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources. Combining repeated observations of periodic events, simultaneous observations with multiple telescopes, different observation techniques, and existing information from theory and prior research can help to disentangle the systematics from the planetary signals, and offers synergistic advantages over analysing observations separately. Bayesian inference provides a self-consistent statistical framework that addresses both the necessity for complex systematics models, and the need to combine prior information and heterogeneous observations. This chapter offers a brief introduction to Bayesian inference in the context of exoplanet research, with focus on time series analysis, and finishes with an overview of a set of freely available programming libraries.Comment: Invited revie

No neon, but jets in the remarkable recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a? - Hubble Space Telescope spectroscopy of the 2015 eruption

The 2008 discovery of an eruption of M31N 2008-12a began a journey on which the true nature of this remarkable recurrent nova continues to be revealed. M31N 2008-12a contains a white dwarf close to the Chandrasekhar limit, accreting at a high rate from its companion, and undergoes thermonuclear eruptions which are observed yearly and may even be twice as frequent. In this paper, we report on Hubble Space Telescope STIS UV spectroscopy taken within days of the predicted 2015 eruption, coupled with Keck spectroscopy of the 2013 eruption. Together, this spectroscopy permits the reddening to be constrained to E(B-V) = 0.10 +/- 0.03. The UV spectroscopy reveals evidence for highly ionized, structured, and high velocity ejecta at early times. No evidence for neon is seen in these spectra however, but it may be that little insight can be gained regarding the composition of the white dwarf (CO vs ONe)

No neon, but jets in the remarkable recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a? - Hubble Space Telescope spectroscopy of the 2015 eruption

The 2008 discovery of an eruption of M31N 2008-12a began a journey on which the true nature of this remarkable recurrent nova continues to be revealed. M31N 2008-12a contains a white dwarf close to the Chandrasekhar limit, accreting at a high rate from its companion, and undergoes thermonuclear eruptions which are observed yearly and may even be twice as frequent. In this paper, we report on Hubble Space Telescope STIS UV spectroscopy taken within days of the predicted 2015 eruption, coupled with Keck spectroscopy of the 2013 eruption. Together, this spectroscopy permits the reddening to be constrained to E(B-V) = 0.10 +/- 0.03. The UV spectroscopy reveals evidence for highly ionized, structured, and high velocity ejecta at early times. No evidence for neon is seen in these spectra however, but it may be that little insight can be gained regarding the composition of the white dwarf (CO vs ONe)

Discovery of a Novel, Isothiazolonaphthoquinone-Based Small Molecule Activator of FOXO Nuclear-Cytoplasmic Shuttling

FOXO factors are tumour suppressor proteins commonly inactivated in human tumours by posttranslational modifications. Furthermore, genetic variation within the FOXO3a gene is consistently associated with human longevity. Therefore, the pharmacological activation of FOXO proteins is considered as an attractive therapeutic approach to treat cancer and age-related diseases. In order to identify agents capable of activating FOXOs, we tested a collection of small chemical compounds using image-based high content screening technology. Here, we report the discovery of LOM612 (compound 1a), a newly synthesized isothiazolonaphthoquinone as a potent FOXO relocator. Compound 1a induces nuclear translocation of a FOXO3a reporter protein as well as endogenous FOXO3a and FOXO1 in U2OS cells in a dose-dependent manner. This activity does not affect the subcellular localization of other cellular proteins including NFkB or inhibit CRM1-mediated nuclear export. Furthermore, compound 1a shows a potent antiproliferative effect in human cancer cell lines

A Framework for Examining Social Stress and Susceptibility to Air Pollution in Respiratory Health

Objective: There is growing interest in disentangling the health effects of spatially clustered social and physical environmental exposures and in exploring potential synergies among them, with particular attention directed to the combined effects of psychosocial stress and air pollution. Both exposures may be elevated in lower-income urban communities, and it has been hypothesized that stress, which can influence immune function and susceptibility, may potentiate the effects of air pollution in respiratory disease onset and exacerbation. In this paper, we attempt to synthesize the relevant research from social and environmental epidemiology, toxicology, immunology, and exposure assessment to provide a useful framework for environmental health researchers aiming to investigate the health effects of environmental pollution in combination with social or psychological factors. Data synthesis: We review the existing epidemiologic and toxicologic evidence on synergistic effects of stress and pollution, and then describe the physiologic effects of stress and key issues related to measuring and evaluating stress as it relates to physical environmental exposures and susceptibility. Finally, we identify some of the major methodologic challenges ahead as we work toward disentangling the health effects of clustered social and physical exposures and accurately describing the interplay among these exposures. Conclusions: There is still tremendous work to be done toward understanding the combined and potentially synergistic health effects of stress and pollution. As this research proceeds, we recommend careful attention to the relative temporalities of stress and pollution exposures, to nonlinearities in their independent and combined effects, to physiologic pathways not elucidated by epidemiologic methods, and to the relative spatial distributions of social and physical exposures at multiple geographic scales

Magnetic field exposure and long-term survival among children with leukaemia

We examined the association between magnetic field (MF) exposure and survival among children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) treated at 51 Pediatric Oncology Group centres between 1996 and 2001. Of 1672 potentially eligible children under treatment, 482 (29%) participated and personal 24-h MF measurements were obtained from 412 participants. A total of 386 children with ALL and 361 with B-precursor ALL were included in the analysis of event-free survival (time from diagnosis to first treatment failure, relapse, secondary malignancy, or death) and overall survival. After adjustment for risk group and socioeconomic status, the event-free survival hazard ratio (HR) for children with measurements ⩾0.3 μT was 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8, 4.9), compared to <0.1 μT. For survival, elevated HRs were found for children exposed to ⩾0.3 μT (multivariate HR=4.5, 95% CI 1.5–13.8) but based on only four deaths among 19 children. While risk was increased among children with exposures above 0.3 μT, the small numbers limited inferences for this finding

Osteoid osteoma of the femur in a 7-month-old infant treated with radiofrequency ablation

Osteoid osteoma occurs most commonly in children, adolescents, and young adults between the ages of 5 and 30 years. In the preschool age group, it is quite uncommon, accounting for only 3–8% of all osteoid osteoma cases. We report a case of osteoid osteoma in a 7-month-old infant, who presented with decreased use of the right lower extremity due to pain. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed an atypical appearance. A biopsy of the lesion, with histopathological examination, confirmed the diagnosis of osteoid osteoma. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of the nidus under computed tomography (CT) guidance was performed. The patient developed a recurrence after 3 months, which was treated with a second RFA. On subsequent follow-up, the infant did not show signs of pain after 1 month. In summary, this case report shows that osteoid osteoma can present in early infancy and can be successfully treated with RFA at this age, however, recurrence after the procedure can occur and close follow-up is recommended

Motivation and treatment engagement intervention trial (MotivaTe-IT): The effects of motivation feedback to clinicians on treatment engagement in patients with severe mental illness

Background: Treatment disengagement and non-completion poses a major problem for the successful treatment of patients with severe mental illness. Motivation for treatment has long been proposed as a major determinant of treatment engagement, but exact mechanisms remain unclear. This current study serves three purposes: 1) to determine whether a feedback intervention based on the patients' motivation for treatment is effective at improving treatment engagement (TE) of severe mentally ill patients in outpatient psychiatric treatment, 2) to gather insight into motivational processes and pos

Prognostic Value of [18F]-Fluoro-Deoxy-Glucose PET/CT, S100 or MIA for Assessment of Cancer-Associated Mortality in Patients with High Risk Melanoma

PURPOSE: To assess the prognostic value of FDG PET/CT compared to the tumor markers S100B and melanoma inhibitory activity (MIA) in patients with high risk melanoma. METHODS: Retrospective study in 125 consecutive patients with high risk melanoma that underwent FDG PET/CT for re-staging. Diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value was determined for FDG PET/CT as well as for S100B and MIA. As standard of reference, cytological, histological, PET/CT or MRI follow-up findings as well as clinical follow-up were used. RESULTS: Of 125 patients, FDG PET/CT was positive in 62 patients. 37 (29.6%) patients had elevated S100B (>100 pg/ml) and 24 (20.2%) had elevated MIA (>10 pg/ml) values. Overall specificities for FDG PET/CT, S100B and MIA were 96.8% (95% CI, 89.1% to 99.1%), 85.7% (75.0% to 92.3%), and 95.2% (86.9% to 98.4%), corresponding sensitivities were 96.8% (89.0% to 99.1%), 45.2% (33.4% to 55.5%), and 36.1% (25.2% to 48.6%), respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) for PET/CT, S100B, and MIA were 96.8% (89.1% to 99.1%), 61.4% (50.9% to 70.9%), and 60.6% (50.8% to 69.7%). The positive predictive values (PPV) were 96.7% (89.0% to 99.1%), 75.7% (59.9% to 86.6%), and 88.0% (70.0% to 95.8%). Patients with elevated S100B- or MIA values or PET/CT positive findings showed a significantly (p<0.001 each, univariate Cox regression models) higher risk of melanoma associated death which was increased 4.2-, 6.5- or 17.2-fold, respectively. CONCLUSION: PET/CT has a higher prognostic power in the assessment of cancer-associated mortality in melanoma patients compared with S100 and MIA