Structure of a Bathtub Vortex : Importance of the Bottom Boundary Layer

A bathtub vortex in a cylindrical tank rotating at a constant angular velocity [omega] is studied by meansof a laboratory experiment, a numerical experiment and a boundary layer theory. The laboratory and numerical experiments show that two regimes of vortices in the steady-state can occur depending on [omega] and the volume flux Q through the drain hole: when Q is large and [omega] is small, a potential vortex is formed in which angular momentum outside the vortex core is constant in the non-rotating frame. However, when Q is small or [omega] is large, a vortex is generated in which the angular momentum decreases with decreasing radius. Boundary layertheory shows that the vortex regimes strongly depend on the theoretical radial volume flux through the bottomboundary layer under a potential vortex : when the ratio of Q to the theoretical boundary-layer radial volume flux Qb (scaled by 2π R2([omega] ν)12 ) at the outer rim of the vortex core is larger than a critical value (of order 1), the radial flow in the interior exists at all radiiand Regime I is realized, where R is the inner radius of the tank and ν the kinematicviscosity.When the ratio is less than the critical value, the radial flow in the interior nearlyvanishes inside a critical radius and almost all of the radial volume flux occurs only in the boundary layer,resulting in Regime II in which the angular momentum is not constant with radius. This criterion is found to explain the results of the laboratory and numerical experiments very well

Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Ozone Response

A multiple linear regression statistical method is applied to model data taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5) to estimate the 11-yr solar cycle responses of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind during the 1979-2005 period. The analysis is limited to the six CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and that include interactive ozone chemistry. All simulations assumed a conservative 11-yr solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variation based on the NRL model. These model responses are then compared to corresponding observational estimates derived from two independent satellite ozone profile data sets and from ERA Interim Reanalysis meteorological data. The models exhibit a range of 11-yr responses with three models (CESM1-WACCM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MRI-ESM1) yielding substantial solar-induced ozone changes in the upper stratosphere that compare favorably with available observations. The remaining three models do not, apparently because of differences in the details of their radiation and photolysis rate codes. During winter in both hemispheres, the three models with stronger upper stratospheric ozone responses produce relatively strong latitudinal gradients of ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere that are associated with accelerations of the polar night jet under solar maximum conditions. This behavior is similar to that found in the satellite ozone and ERA Interim data except that the latitudinal gradients tend to occur at somewhat higher latitudes in the models. The sharp ozone gradients are dynamical in origin and assist in radiatively enhancing the temperature gradients, leading to a stronger zonal wind response. These results suggest that simulation of a realistic solar-induced variation of upper stratospheric ozone, temperature and zonal wind in winter is possible for at least some coupled climate models even if a conservative SSI variation is adopted

Evaluation of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO‐initiative

The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) is a model intercomparison programme that specifically targets simulation of the QBO in current global climate models. Eleven of the models or model versions that participated in a QBOi intercomparison study have upper boundaries in or above the mesosphere and therefore simulate the region where the stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) is the dominant mode of variability of zonal winds in the tropical upper stratosphere. Comparisons of the SAO simulations in these models are presented here. These show that the model simulations of the amplitudes and phases of the SAO in zonal‐mean zonal wind near the stratopause agree well with the information derived from available observations. However, most of the models simulate time‐average zonal winds that are more westward than determined from observations, in some cases by several tens of m·s$^{–1}$. Validation of wave activity in the models is hampered by the limited observations of tropical waves in the upper stratosphere but suggests a deficit of eastward forcing either by large‐scale waves, such as Kelvin waves, or by gravity waves

Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations

Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by the end of the twenty-first century. Enhanced activity is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands. At high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. Variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r = 0.5. There is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0

The world's most complex climate models are currently running a range of experiments as part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Added to the output from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the total data volume will be in the order of 20PB. Here, we present a dataset of annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean means derived from a selection of experiments of key interest to climate data analysts and reduced complexity climate modellers. The derived dataset is a key part of validating, calibrating and developing reduced complexity climate models against the behaviour of more physically complete models. In addition to its use for reduced complexity climate modellers, we aim to make our data accessible to other research communities. We facilitate this in a number of ways. Firstly, given the focus on annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean mean quantities, our dataset is orders of magnitude smaller than the source data and hence does not require specialized ‘big data’ expertise. Secondly, again because of its smaller size, we are able to offer our dataset in a text-based format, greatly reducing the computational expertise required to work with CMIP output. Thirdly, we enable data provenance and integrity control by tracking all source metadata and providing tools which check whether a dataset has been retracted, that is identified as erroneous. The resulting dataset is updated as new CMIP6 results become available and we provide a stable access point to allow automated downloads. Along with our accompanying website (cmip6.science.unimelb.edu.au), we believe this dataset provides a unique community resource, as well as allowing non-specialists to access CMIP data in a new, user-friendly way

Tetrahedrally bonded ternary amorphous semiconductor alloys

The properties of tetrahedrally bonded ternary amorphous semiconductors a-CSiSn:H and a-CSiGe:H are reviewed with particular emphasis on the temperature dependence of dark conductivity and the coordination in random networks. It is shown here that the dark conductivity as a function of the temperature strongly depends on the carbon content and, more precisely, on the proportion of sp3 and sp2 sites in the carbon. Ternary alloys with different carbon contents are compared to binary alloys using the average coordination number. The ternary alloys have an average coordination number close to the optimal value predicted for amorphous covalent networks

Immunostaining of thymidylate synthase and p53 for predicting chemoresistance to S-1/cisplatin in gastric cancer

High expression of thymidylate synthase (TS) and inactivation of p53 are allegedly associated with chemoresistance. The authors evaluated TS and p53 expression in gastric cancer treated with neoadjuvant S-1/cisplatin chemotherapy. Paraffin sections of pretreatment biopsy and surgical specimens from 41 gastric cancers were immunostained for TS and p53 protein after appropriate antigen retrieval. Fifty-one cases without neoadjuvant chemotherapy were also studied. In the pretreatment biopsies, high expression of TS was seen in 8% of the histologic responders, in 28% of the nonresponders and in 31% of the controls. High expression of p53 was observed in 56% of the nonresponders, but in 8% of the responders and in 29% of the controls (P<0.01 and P<0.05, respectively). The TS- and/or p53-high phenotype was seen in 76% of the nonresponders and in 54% of the controls, but in 8% of the responders (P<0.0001 and P<0.005, respectively). The data of the surgical specimens were consistent with those of the pretreatment biopsies. These results suggest that immunostaining for TS and p53 protein is useful for pretreatment selection of gastric cancer patients unresponsive to S-1/cisplatin chemotherapy

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m−2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m−2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing