Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an ecosystem approach:a stress-testing case study for the UK

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses

To what extent has Sustainable Intensification in England been achieved?

Agricultural intensification has significantly increased yields and fed growing populations across the planet, but has also led to considerable environmental degradation. In response an alternative process of ‘Sustainable Intensification’ (SI), whereby food production increases while environmental impacts are reduced, has been advocated as necessary, if not sufficient, for delivering food and environmental security. However, the extent to which SI has begun, the main drivers of SI, and the degree to which degradation is simply ‘offshored’ are uncertain. In this study we assess agroecosystem services in England and two contrasting sub-regions, majority-arable Eastern England and majority-pastoral South-Western England, since 1950 by analysing ecosystem service metrics and developing a simple system dynamics model. We find that rapid agricultural intensification drove significant environmental degradation in England in the early 1980s, but that most ecosystem services except farmland biodiversity began to recover after 2000, primarily due to reduced livestock and fertiliser usage decoupling from high yields. This partially follows the trajectory of an Environmental Kuznets Curve, with yields and GDP growth decoupling from environmental degradation above ~£17,000 per capita per annum. Together, these trends suggest that SI has begun in England. However, the lack of recovery in farmland biodiversity, and the reduction in UK food self-sufficiency resulting in some agricultural impacts being ‘offshored’, represent major negative trade-offs. Maintaining yields and restoring biodiversity while also addressing climate change, offshored degradation, and post-Brexit subsidy changes will require significant further SI in the future

Expansion of Agriculture in Northern Cold-Climate Regions: A Cross-Sectoral Perspective on Opportunities and Challenges

Agriculture in the boreal and Arctic regions is perceived as marginal, low intensity and inadequate to satisfy the needs of local communities, but another perspective is that northern agriculture has untapped potential to increase the local supply of food and even contribute to the global food system. Policies across northern jurisdictions target the expansion and intensification of agriculture, contextualized for the diverse social settings and market foci in the north. However, the rapid pace of climate change means that traditional methods of adapting cropping systems and developing infrastructure and regulations for this region cannot keep up with climate change impacts. Moreover, the anticipated conversion of northern cold-climate natural lands to agriculture risks a loss of up to 76% of the carbon stored in vegetation and soils, leading to further environmental impacts. The sustainable development of northern agriculture requires local solutions supported by locally relevant policies. There is an obvious need for the rapid development of a transdisciplinary, cross-jurisdictional, long-term knowledge development, and dissemination program to best serve food needs and an agricultural economy in the boreal and Arctic regions while minimizing the risks to global climate, northern ecosystems and communities

Spatio-temporal drivers of soil and ecosystem carbon fluxes at field scale in an upland grassland in Germany

Ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems are affected by varying environmental conditions (e.g. soil heterogeneity and the weather) and land management. However, the interactions between soil respiration (Rs) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and their spatio-temporal dependence on environmental conditions and land management at field scale is not well understood. We performed repeated C flux measurement at 21 sites during the 2013 growing season in a temperate upland grassland in Germany, which was fertilized and cut three times according to the agricultural practice typical of the region. Repeated measurements included determination of NEE, Rs, leaf area index (LAI), meteorological conditions as well as physical and chemical soil properties. Temporal variability of Rs was controlled by air temperature, while LAI influenced the temporal variability of NEE. The three grass cuts reduced LAI and affected NEE markedly. More than 50% of NEE variability was explained by defoliation at field scale. Additionally, soil heterogeneity affected NEE, but to a lower extent (>30%), while Rs remained unaffected. We conclude that grassland management (i.e. repeated defoliation) and soil heterogeneity affects the spatio-temporal variability of NEE at field scale

Predicting the risk of losing parcels of semi-natural habitat to intensive agriculture

Analysis of detailed data on habitat turnover derived from the Countryside Survey of Great Britain indicates that some types of habitat conversion can be predicted. We report that parcels of semi-natural grassland were more likely to have been converted to intensive agriculture if they were large, had a high nutrient status and were in the proximity of land that has already been intensified; three variables indicating an environmental potential for intensification. Most of the conversions predicted by the models were observed (high specificity) but a substantial number of conversions were not predicted (low sensitivity), indicating that the models could be refined by integrating additional information. We suggest that the ecological and spatial characteristics of individual parcels of semi-natural habitats and their surrounding land use should be used as a basis to assess the risk of biodiversity loss in dynamic agricultural landscapes

Characterising spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase across the northern range boundary of the annual grass Vulpia fasciculata

Understanding the factors that influence plant distributions is a considerable challenge for ecologists in the face of environmental change. Here, we quantify spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase of the annual grass Vulpia fasciculata. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that the northern range boundary is associated with finite rates of population increase of less than one. Seeds of three ecotypes of the annual grass V. fasciculata were introduced annually across a range of sites in Great Britain both within (11) and to the north (4) of its current range boundary in each of 4 years. Populations failed to establish at 17% of target sites due to disturbance. At the remaining target sites, the finite rate of population increase, λ, varied from 0.06 to 33.3 with a geometric mean of 1.88. Of the total variance in the rate of population growth, site and year effects accounted independently for 40% of the variation and in interaction for 50%; ecotype accounted for less than 5% of the variation. Variation in the weather between sites and years had little impact on plant performance, and there was no indication that the rate of population growth was lower to the north of the current range boundary. We conclude that current climatic conditions on the coast of Great Britain are not limiting the distribution of V. fasciculata and that seeds from across its current range have roughly equivalent colonising potential

Assessing the impacts of agricultural intensification on biodiversity:a British perspective

Agricultural intensification is best considered as the level of human appropriation of terrestrial net primary production. The global value is set to increase from 30%, increasing pressures on biodiversity. The pressures can be classified in terms of spatial scale, i.e. land cover, landscape management and crop management. Different lowland agricultural landscapes in Great Britain show differences among these pressures when habitat diversity and nutrient surplus are used as indicators. Eutrophication of plants was correlated to N surplus, and species richness of plants correlated with broad habitat diversity. Bird species diversity only correlated with habitat diversity when the diversity of different agricultural habitats was taken into account. The pressures of agricultural change may be reduced by minimizing loss of large habitats, minimizing permanent loss of agricultural land, maintaining habitat diversity in agricultural landscapes in order to provide ecosystem services, and minimizing pollution from nutrients and pesticides from the crops themselves. While these pressures could potentially be quantified using an internationally consistent set of indicators, their impacts would need to be assessed using a much larger number of locally applicable biodiversity indicators

Do field boundaries act as refugia for grassland plant species diversity in intensively managed agricultural landscapes in Britain?

Initiatives to restore characteristic plant species diversity to degraded habitats require target plant species populations to be established and maintained. In landscapes managed intensively for agriculture, species that are foci for restoration efforts may be scarce, being confined to core reserves of less-modified habitat or persisting as fragmented populations on linear landscape features. Botanical data from small and large-scale surveys across Britain was used to investigate whether grassland plants favoured by less intensive management persisted on field boundaries despite increasing productivity in the adjacent field. At low field productivity, field species richness was, on average, higher than in field boundaries. As productivity increased, boundary plots reduced in richness at a slower rate than adjacent fields thus boundaries became relatively richer in grassland species than adjacent fields. Species compositional similarity between fields and their boundaries also declined with increasing field productivity. Grassland field boundaries can function as refugia. However, the lower relative species richness of boundaries next to the least productive fields indicated that some plant species will, on average, be increasingly uncommon or absent in boundaries as field productivity increases. High residual variation in these relationships was linked to local variation in conditions between fields and their boundaries. Field boundaries next to highly productive grasslands appear to function as partial refugia for grassland plants. While highly species rich boundaries can locally occur next to species poor fields, the species richness of most boundaries falls well short of values typical of the least productive fields