Tipping positive change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordTipping points exist in social, ecological and climate systems and those systems are increasingly causally intertwined in the Anthropocene. Climate change and biosphere degradation have advanced to the point where we are already triggering damaging environmental tipping points, and to avoid worse ones ahead will require finding and triggering positive tipping points towards sustainability in coupled social, ecological and technological systems. To help with that I outline how tipping points can occur in continuous dynamical systems and in networks, the causal interactions that can occur between tipping events across different types and scales of system – including the conditions required to trigger tipping cascades, the potential for early warning signals of tipping points, and how they could inform deliberate tipping of positive change. In particular, the same methods that can provide early warning of damaging environmental tipping points can be used to detect when a socio-technical or socio-ecological system is most sensitive to being deliberately tipped in a desirable direction. I provide some example targets for such deliberate tipping of positive change.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Leverhulme Trus

Direct imaging of a digital-micromirror device for configurable microscopic optical potentials

Programable spatial light modulators (SLMs) have significantly advanced the configurable optical trapping of particles. Typically, these devices are utilized in the Fourier plane of an optical system, but direct imaging of an amplitude pattern can potentially result in increased simplicity and computational speed. Here we demonstrate high-resolution direct imaging of a digital micromirror device (DMD) at high numerical apertures (NA), which we apply to the optical trapping of a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC). We utilise a (1200 x 1920) pixel DMD and commercially available 0.45 NA microscope objectives, finding that atoms confined in a hybrid optical/magnetic or all-optical potential can be patterned using repulsive blue-detuned (532 nm) light with 630(10) nm full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) resolution, within 5% of the diffraction limit. The result is near arbitrary control of the density the BEC without the need for expensive custom optics. We also introduce the technique of time-averaged DMD potentials, demonstrating the ability to produce multiple grayscale levels with minimal heating of the atomic cloud, by utilising the high switching speed (20 kHz maximum) of the DMD. These techniques will enable the realization and control of diverse optical potentials for superfluid dynamics and atomtronics applications with quantum gases. The performance of this system in a direct imaging configuration has wider application for optical trapping at non-trivial NAs.Comment: 9 page

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability. Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer spliced record of the cold climate state before and after the Bølling-Allerød. Therefore, the end of the Younger Dryas may also have been triggered by a stochastic perturbation

Extent of partial ice cover due to carbon cycle feedback in a zonal energy balance model

International audienceA global carbon cycle is introduced into a zonally averaged energy balance climate model. The physical model components are similar to those of Budyko (1969) and Sellers (1969). The new carbon components account for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the terrestrial and oceanic storage of carbon. Prescribing values for the sum of these carbon components, it is found that inclusion of a closed carbon cycle reduces the range of insolation over which stable partial ice cover solutions may occur. This highly simplified climate model also predicts that the estimated release of carbon from fossil fuel burning over the next hundred years could result in the eventual melting of the ice sheets. Keywords: climate, carbon cycle,zonal model, earth system modellin

Daisyworld: a review

Daisyworld is a simple planetary model designed to show the long-term effects of coupling between life and its environment. Its original form was introduced by James Lovelock as a defense against criticism that his Gaia theory of the Earth as a self-regulating homeostatic system requires teleological control rather than being an emergent property. The central premise, that living organisms can have major effects on the climate system, is no longer controversial. The Daisyworld model has attracted considerable interest from the scientific community and has now established itself as a model independent of, but still related to, the Gaia theory. Used widely as both a teaching tool and as a basis for more complex studies of feedback systems, it has also become an important paradigm for the understanding of the role of biotic components when modeling the Earth system. This paper collects the accumulated knowledge from the study of Daisyworld and provides the reader with a concise account of its important properties. We emphasize the increasing amount of exact analytic work on Daisyworld and are able to bring together and summarize these results from different systems for the first time. We conclude by suggesting what a more general model of life-environment interaction should be based on

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings

Proterozoic oxygen rise linked to shifting balance between seafloor and terrestrial weathering.

types: JOURNAL ARTICLEA shift toward higher atmospheric oxygen concentration during the late Proterozoic has been inferred from multiple indirect proxies and is seen by many as a prerequisite for the emergence of complex animal life. However, the mechanisms controlling the level of oxygen throughout the Proterozoic and its eventual rise remain uncertain. Here we use a simple biogeochemical model to show that the balance between long-term carbon removal fluxes via terrestrial silicate weathering and ocean crust alteration plays a key role in determining atmospheric oxygen concentration. This balance may be shifted by changes in terrestrial weatherability or in the generation rate of oceanic crust. As a result, the terrestrial chemical weathering flux may be permanently altered-contrasting with the conventional view that the global silicate weathering flux must adjust to equal the volcanic CO2 degassing flux. Changes in chemical weathering flux in turn alter the long-term supply of phosphorus to the ocean, and therefore the flux of organic carbon burial, which is the long-term source of atmospheric oxygen. Hence we propose that increasing solar luminosity and a decrease in seafloor spreading rate over 1,500-500 Ma drove a gradual shift from seafloor weathering to terrestrial weathering, and a corresponding steady rise in atmospheric oxygen. Furthermore, increased terrestrial weatherability during the late Neoproterozoic may explain low temperature, increases in ocean phosphate, ocean sulfate, and atmospheric oxygen concentration at this time.NER

The seasonal cycle of ocean-atmosphere CO2 Flux in Ryder Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

Approximately 15 million km2 of the Southern Ocean is seasonally ice covered, yet the processes affecting carbon cycling and gas exchange in this climatically important region remain inadequately understood. Here, 3 years of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) measurements and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from Ryder Bay on the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are presented. During spring and summer, primary production in the surface ocean promotes atmospheric CO2 uptake. In winter, higher DIC, caused by net heterotrophy and vertical mixing with Circumpolar Deep Water, results in outgassing of CO2 from the ocean. Ryder Bay is found to be a net sink of atmospheric CO2 of 0.59–0.94 mol C m−2 yr−1 (average of 3 years). Seasonal sea ice cover increases the net annual CO2 uptake, but its effect on gas exchange remains poorly constrained. A reduction in sea ice on the WAP shelf may reduce the strength of the oceanic CO2 sink in this region