Multi-stakeholder development of a serious game to explore the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus: The SIM4NEXUS approach

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Water, energy, food, land and climate form a tightly-connected nexus in which actions on one sector impact other sectors, creating feedbacks and unanticipated consequences. This is especially because at present, much scientific research and many policies are constrained to single discipline/sector silos that are often not interacting (e.g., water-related research/policy). However, experimenting with the interaction and determining how a change in one sector could impact another may require unreasonable time frames, be very difficult in practice and may be potentially dangerous, triggering any one of a number of unanticipated side-effects. Current modelling often neglects knowledge from practice. Therefore, a safe environment is required to test the potential cross-sectoral implications of policy decisions in one sector on other sectors. Serious games offer such an environment by creating realistic 'simulations', where long-term impacts of policies may be tested and rated. This paper describes how the ongoing (2016-2020) Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS will develop serious games investigating potential plausible cross-nexus implications and synergies due to policy interventions for 12 multi-scale case studies ranging from regional to global. What sets these games apart is that stakeholders and partners are involved in all aspects of the modelling definition and process, from case study conceptualisation, quantitative model development including the implementation and validation of each serious game. Learning from playing a serious game is justified by adopting a proof-of-concept for a specific regional case study in Sardinia (Italy). The value of multi-stakeholder involvement is demonstrated, and critical lessons learned for serious game development in general are presented.The work described in this paper has been conducted within the project SIM4NEXUS. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 689150 SIM4NEXUS

Machine learning approaches for predicting health risk of cyanobacterial blooms in Northern European Lakes

Cyanobacterial blooms are considered a major threat to global water security with documented impacts on lake ecosystems and public health. Given that cyanobacteria possess highly adaptive traits that favor them to prevail under different and often complicated stressor regimes, predicting their abundance is challenging. A dataset from 822 Northern European lakes is used to determine which variables better explain the variation of cyanobacteria biomass (CBB) by means of stepwise multiple linear regression. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total nitrogen (TN) provided the best modelling structure for the entire dataset, while for subsets of shallow and deep lakes, Chl-a, mean depth, TN and TN/TP explained part of the variance in CBB. Path analysis was performed and corroborated these findings. Finally, CBB was translated to a categorical variable according to risk levels for human health associated with the use of lakes for recreational activities. Several machine learning methods, namely Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support-vector Machine and Random Forest, were applied showing a remarkable ability to predict the risk, while Random Forest parameters were tuned and optimized, achieving a 95.81% accuracy, exceeding the performance of all other machine learning methods tested. A confusion matrix analysis is performed for all machine learning methods, identifying the potential of each method to correctly predict CBB risk levels and assessing the extent of false alarms; random forest clearly outperforms the other methods with very promising results.publishedVersio

The Effect of Cell Death on the Stability of a Growing Biofilm

In this paper, we investigate the role of cell death in promoting pattern formation within bacterial biofilms. To do this we utilise an extension of the model proposed by Dockery and Klapper [13], and consider the effects of two distinct death rates. Equations describing the evolution of a moving biofilm interface are derived, and properties of steady state solutions are examined. In particular, a comparison of the planar behaviour of the biofilm interface in the different cases of cell death is investigated. Linear stability analysis is carried out at steady state solutions of the interface, and it is shown that, under certain conditions, instabilities may arise. Analysis determines that, while the emergence of patterns is a possibility in `deep’ biofilms, it is unlikely that pattern formation will arise in `shallow’ biofilms

MODELING OF HYDROLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES THROUGH OPENMI AND WEB SERVICES

Integrated collaborative modeling has been proven lately to be the most accurate computer methodology that allows modelers to scrutinize the environmental processes using a holistic approach. Due to the dynamic and interdependent nature, such processes involve the interlinking of hydrological, meteorological, environmental, ecosystems and socioeconomical characteristics. In this paper we deal with the development and the integration of a collaborative system of models devoted to the water quantity and quality monitoring, and also to the management of water resources in a watershed. The system is also tailored by a socio-economical study that highlights the impact of the aforementioned management to the local community of the region under study. Models that integrate the collaborative system need to be coupled so that to run simultaneously under the spatial and temporal synchronization condition. To achieve such a simultaneous synchronization, the Open Modeling Interface, (OpenMI) is invoked. The system has been applied and tested to the Lake Karla watershed in Thessaly region, Greece. However due to the loose integration methodology used for its development and to its open ended property, the system can be easily parametrized to offer such an analysis on other similar case studies. An extension to the OpenMI standard provides the remote simultaneous run of models using web services and allowing the development of a cloud repository of models for future use

Sulphur cycling in a Neoarchean microbial mat

Multiple sulphur (S) isotope ratios are powerful proxies to understand the complexity of S biogeochemical cycling through Deep Time. The disappearance of a sulphur mass independent fractionation (S-MIF) signal in rocks <~2.4 Ga has been used to date a dramatic rise in atmospheric oxygen levels. However, intricacies of the S-cycle before the Great Oxidation Event remain poorly understood. For example, the isotope composition of coeval atmospherically derived sulphur species is still debated. Furthermore, variation in Archaean pyrite δ34S values has been widely attributed to microbial sulphate reduction (MSR). While petrographic evidence for Archaean early diagenetic pyrite formation is common, textural evidence for the presence and distribution of MSR remains enigmatic. We combined detailed petrographic and in-situ, high-resolution multiple S-isotope studies (δ34S and Δ33S) using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to document the S-isotope signatures of exceptionally well-preserved, pyritised microbialites in shales from the ~2.65 Ga Lokammona Formation, Ghaap Group, South Africa. The presence of MSR in this Neoarchaean microbial mat is supported by typical biogenic textures including wavy crinkled laminae, and early-diagenetic pyrite containing <26‰ μm-scale variations in δ34S and Δ33S = -0.21 ± 0.65 ‰ (±1σ). These large variations in δ34S values suggest Rayleigh distillation of a limited sulphate pool during high rates of MSR. Furthermore, we identified a second, morphologically distinct pyrite phase that precipitated after lithification, with δ34S = 8.36 ± 1.16‰ and Δ33S = 5.54 ± 1.53‰ (±1σ). We propose that the S-MIF signature of this secondary pyrite does not reflect contemporaneous atmospheric processes at the time of deposition; instead, it formed by the influx of later stage sulphur-bearing fluids containing an inherited atmospheric S-MIF signal and/or from magnetic isotope effects during thermochemical sulphate reduction. These insights highlight the complementary nature of petrography and SIMS studies to resolve multigenerational pyrite formation pathways in the geological recordPublisher PDFPeer reviewe

Towards a low-carbon economy : A nexus-oriented policy coherence analysis in Greece

The sustainable management of natural resources under climate change conditions is a critical research issue. Among the many approaches emerged in recent times, the so-called 'nexus approach' is gaining traction in academic and policy circles. The nexus approach presupposes the analysis of bio-physical, socio-economic and policy interlinkages among sectors (e.g., water, energy, food) for the identification of integrated solutions and the support of policy decisions. Ultimately, the nexus approach aims to identify synergies and trade-offs among the nexus dimensions. Concerning policy, the nexus approach focuses on policy coherence, i.e., the systematic identification and management of trade-offs and synergies between policies across sectors. This paper investigates the coherence between policies on the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in Greece. The systematic analysis of policy documents led to the elicitation of nexus-related policy objectives and instruments. Then, the coherence among objectives and between objectives and instruments was assessed using the methodology proposed by Nilsson et al. A stakeholder (trans-disciplinary) orientation was adopted and the need to incorporate stakeholders' recommendations as to policy coherence assessment was highlighted. Overall, the findings revealed that climate and food/agricultural policies represent critical future priorities in Greece by stimulating progress in other nexus-related policies (energy, water, land policies) and being positively influenced by them.</p

Non-lethal control of the cariogenic potential of an agent-based model for dental plaque

Dental caries or tooth decay is a prevalent global disease whose causative agent is the oral biofilm known as plaque. According to the ecological plaque hypothesis, this biofilm becomes pathogenic when external challenges drive it towards a state with a high proportion of acid-producing bacteria. Determining which factors control biofilm composition is therefore desirable when developing novel clinical treatments to combat caries, but is also challenging due to the system complexity and the existence of multiple bacterial species performing similar functions. Here we employ agent-based mathematical modelling to simulate a biofilm consisting of two competing, distinct types of bacterial populations, each parameterised by their nutrient uptake and aciduricity, periodically subjected to an acid challenge resulting from the metabolism of dietary carbohydrates. It was found that one population was progressively eliminated from the system to give either a benign or a pathogenic biofilm, with a tipping point between these two fates depending on a multiplicity of factors relating to microbial physiology and biofilm geometry. Parameter sensitivity was quantified by individually varying the model parameters against putative experimental measures, suggesting non-lethal interventions that can favourably modulate biofilm composition. We discuss how the same parameter sensitivity data can be used to guide the design of validation experiments, and argue for the benefits of in silico modelling in providing an additional predictive capability upstream from in vitro experiments

Domestic water consumption monitoring and behaviour intervention by employing the internet of things technologies

As the water resource is becoming scarce, conservation of water has a high priority around the globe, study on water management and conservation becomes an important research problem. People are increasingly becoming more individual households, which tend to be less efficient, requiring more resources per capita than larger households. In order to address these challenges, this paper presents the achievements of monitoring domestic water consumption at the appliance level and intervening people's water usage behavior which have been made in ISS-EWATUS (http://www.issewatus.eu), an European Commission funded FP7 project. The water amount consumed by every household appliance is wirelessly recorded with the exact consumption time and stored in a central database. People's water consumption behavior is likely affected by the real-time water consumption awareness, instant practical advices regarding water-saving activities and classification of water consumption behavior for individuals, all of which are provided by a decision support system deployed as a mobile application in a tablet or any other mobile devices. Only the enhanced water consumption awareness is presented in this paper due to the space limitation. The integrated monitoring and decision support system has been deployed and in use in Sosnowiec in Poland and Skiathos in Greece since March 2015. The domestic water consumption monitoring system at appliance level and the local DSS for affecting people's water consumption behavior are innovative and have little seen before according to the knowledge of the authors.This work is part of the ISS-EWATUS project (www.issewatus.eu) and has been funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no (619228). Appreciation also goes to our former research associates Dr Xi Chen, Dr Xiaomin Chen, Dr Kim Perren, and Dr Yixing Shan who have worked in Loughborough University on the project at various stages

How effectively (or not) can science and research be turned into adopted solutions and policies?

How to create an impact on policies, operations, and society across the interdisciplinary sectors in which we - as researchers - are involved? Managing the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and pursuing climate resilience is the core task of several European (EU) projects and is in the highest interests of our society. The European Commission’s research funding programs attempt to address a large range of topics and offer unique opportunities for scientists to create a tangible impact on the environment and society. We are currently involved in different EU projects, including AWESOME (PRIMA), which aims at managing the WEFE nexus across sectors and scales in the South Mediterranean exploring innovative technologies such as soilless agriculture in the Nile Delta; CLINT (H2020), which is developing Machine Learning (ML) techniques to improve climate science in the detection, causation, and attribution of extreme events to advance climate services; IMPETUS (H2020), whose efforts are dedicated on the elaboration of climate data space enhanced with ML algorithms to support the elaboration of climate policies; REACT4MED (PRIMA), which focuses on combating land degradation and desertification by improving sustainable land and water management through the identification of local good restoration practices and their potential upscaling; Gaza H2.0: Innovation and water efficiency (EuropeAid), which aims at promoting efficient and sustainable water supply and demand as well as knowledge transfer to enhance resilience against water scarcity in Gaza; GoNEXUS (H2020), which is developing an evaluation framework to design and assess innovative solutions for an efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the WEFE nexus; NexusNet (COST), which creates the network and the community of WEF nexus advocates for a low-carbon economy in Europe and beyond; NEXOGENESIS (H2020), which focuses on streamlining water-related policies with artificial intelligence and reinforcement learning; MAGO (PRIMA), which builds web applications for water and agriculture in the Mediterranean; BIONEXT (HEU), which is interlinked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and aims at creating transformative change through nexus analysis. Despite the efforts of the scientific community, there is still a gap between research and practice. Researchers face difficulties in engaging stakeholders and decision-makers to jointly explore and shape the developed solutions, as well as to truly adopt them. The large-scale implementation of suitable technological solutions might require time and financial resources beyond the project’s lifetime and capacity. The lack of follow-ups and collaboration among projects with similar aims can be some of the reasons lying behind. Also, the complexity of finding open data in data-scarce regions makes results less trustable in the eyes of international agencies, while the pressure of publishing often turns research tasks into pure academic exercises. To what extent does the European strategy work? Is it only gaining scientific advances or also leading to local policy changes? Engaging important local actors (e.g., ministries), small-medium enterprises and societal members in the project consortia, empowering scientists by ensuring feedback loops with local governmental agencies, including the human dimension into modelling, and running effective capacity-building campaigns can be some food for thoughts to shape new strategies

Effects of the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption on groundwater resources (part I): Hydraulic impacts

The 2021 volcanic eruption in the Cumbre Vieja mountain range on La Palma Island (Canary Islands, Spain) raised concerns regarding the potential impact on groundwater resources. This study is the first part of a series of papers investigating those impacts, and focuses on the hydraulic impacts of the eruption, while subsequent papers will explore the geochemical consequences. Three boreholes equipped with sensors to measure hydraulic head, temperature, and electrical conductivity of groundwater were installed near the volcano. Monitoring started during the eruption and continued a year after it. Statistical analysis were performed to assess the relationship between the measured variables and real-time seismic-amplitude measurements (RSAM). In addition, the possibility of groundwater vaporization due to magma emergence was assessed with a groundwater flow numerical modelling of the island. Correlation coefficients were computed to assess the linear relationship between groundwater parameters and seismic signals, observing a statistically significant association, and suggesting near-instantaneous variations in parameters such as groundwater levels and EC. Different response patterns of groundwater levels were observed in recharging areas in highlands compared to discharge areas, showing an opposite correlation direction. Deduction of natural trends from the linear regression models of head and RSAM two months after the eruption revealed a more predictable impact on the groundwater system, as the hydrogeological system adjusts to the volcanic activity and its effects on the aquifer. The hydrogeological simulation of the "magma pumping effect" suggested that groundwater extraction was possible, but the absence of an appropriate groundwater monitoring network made it impossible to determine the amount of water extracted from the aquifer. The uncertainty analysis showed values up to 2000 m3·day−1. These findings have important implications for understanding the negative impacts of volcanic eruptions on groundwater resources, highlighting the need for regular monitoring and assessment by hydrogeologists and water management professionals