Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority

Obesity in South Africa: The South African Demographic and Health Survey

To ascertain the anthropometric profile and determinants of obesity in South Africans who participated in the Demographic and Health Survey in 1998. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: A sample of 13,089 men and women (age, _15 years) were randomly selected and then stratified by province and urban and nonurban areas. Height, weight, mid-upper arm circumference, and waist and hip circumference were measured. Body mass index (BMI) was used as an indicator of obesity, and the waist/hip ratio (WHR) was used as an indicator of abdominal obesity. Multivariate regression identified sociodemographic predictors of BMI and waist circumference in the data. RESULTS: Mean BMI values for men and women were 22.9 kg/m2 and 27.1 kg/m2, respectively. For men, 29.2% were overweight or obese (_25 kg/m2) and 9.2% had abdominal obesity (WHR _1.0), whereas 56.6% of women were overweight or obese and 42% had abdominal obesity (WHR _0.85). Underweight (BMI _18.5 kg/m2) was found in 12.2% of men and 5.6% of women. For men, 19% of the variation of BMI and 34% of the variation in waist circumference could be explained by age, level of education, population group, and area of residence. For women, these variables explained 16% of the variation of BMI and 24% of the variation in waist circumference. Obesity increased with age, and higher levels of obesity were found in urban African women. DISCUSSION: Overnutrition is prevalent among adult South Africans, particularly women. Determinants of overnutrition include age, level of education, ethnicity, and area of residence.South African National Department of Health, the medical Research Council of South Africa and United States Agency for International Developmen

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. \ud \ud To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. \ud \ud Design. \ud \ud The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. \ud \ud Setting. \ud \ud South Africa. \ud \ud Subjects. \ud \ud Adults ≥ 15 years. \ud \ud Outcome measures.\ud \ud Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. \ud \ud Results. \ud \ud Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. \ud \ud Conclusions. \ud \ud Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority

A phase IV randomised, open-label pilot study to evaluate switching from protease-inhibitor based regimen to Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide single tablet regimen in Integrase inhibitor-naïve, virologically suppressed HIV-1 infected adults harbouring drug resistance mutations (PIBIK study): study protocol for a randomised trial

Background Currently recommended boosted protease-inhibitor (bPI) regimens may be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular or chronic kidney diseases; in addition, boosted regimens are particularly associated with drug-drug interactions. Since both cardiovascular and renal disease, and polypharmacy, are common in ageing people with HIV, there is a need for alternative efficacious regimens. bPI-based regimens are often the treatment of choice for individuals with pre-treatment or treatment-acquired resistance but it is plausible that carefully selected HIV-positive individuals with drug resistance, who are virologically suppressed on their current bPI regimen, could maintain virological efficacy when switched to bictegravir, emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide (B/F/TAF) fixed dose combination (FDC). Methods/design A phase IV, investigator-initiated, multicentre, open label pilot, randomised two-arm study to assess the safety and efficacy of switching from bPI regimen to B/F/TAF single tablet regimen in integrase inhibitor-naïve, virologically suppressed adults with HIV-1 infection harbouring drug resistance mutations. Eligible individuals will either continue on their bPI regimen or switch to B/F/TAF FDC. After 24 weeks, all participants in the bPI arm will be switched to B/F/TAF and followed for a further 24 weeks and all participants will be followed for 48 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint is the proportion of participants with HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL at week 24 using pure virologic response whilst the secondary efficacy endpoint is the proportion of participants with HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL at Week 48. Other secondary outcome measures include between arm comparisons of drug resistance at virological failure, safety and tolerability and patient-reported outcome measures. Discussion We aim to provide preliminary evidence of the efficacy of switching to B/F/TAF in patients with virological suppression on a bPI-based regimen who harbour select drug resistance mutations

[Study Protocol] Palliative long-term abdominal drains versus repeated drainage in individuals with untreatable ascites due to advanced cirrhosis: study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial

Background: UK deaths due to chronic liver diseases such as cirrhosis have quadrupled over the last 40 years, making this condition now the third most common cause of premature death. Most patients with advanced cirrhosis (end–stage liver disease, [ESLD]) develop ascites. This is often managed with diuretics, but if refractory then the fluid is drained from the peritoneal cavity every 10-14 days by large volume paracentesis (LVP), a procedure requiring hospital admissions. As the life expectancy of patients with ESLD and refractory ascites (if ineligible for liver transplantation) is on average ≤ 6 months, frequent hospital visits are inappropriate from a palliative perspective. One alternative is long-term abdominal drains (LTAD), used successfully in patients whose ascites is due to malignancy. Although inserted in hospital, these drains allow ascites management outside of a hospital setting. LTAD have not been formally evaluated in patients with refractory ascites due to ESLD. Methods: Due to uncertainty about appropriate outcome measures and whether patients with ESLD would wish or be able to participate in a study, a feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT) was designed. Patients were consulted on trial design. We plan to recruit 48 patients with refractory ascites and randomise them (1:1) to either a) LTAD or b) current standard of care (LVP) for 12 weeks. Outcomes of interest include acceptability of LTAD to patients, carers and healthcare professionals as well as recruitment and retention rates. Palliative care Outcome Scale (IPOS), the Short Form Liver Disease Quality of Life (SF-LDQOL), the EuroQol (EQ-5D) and carer (Zarit Burden Interview [ZBI-12]) reported outcomes will also be assessed. Preliminary data on cost effectiveness will be collected and patients and healthcare professionals will be interviewed about their experience of the trial with a view to identifying barriers to recruitment. Discussion: LTAD could potentially improve end-of-life care in patients with refractory ascites due to ESLD by improving symptom control, reducing hospital visits and enabling some self-management. Our trial is designed to see if such patients can be recruited, as well as informing the design of a subsequent definitive trial. Trial registration: ISRCTN30697116, date assigned: 07/10/201

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes

Historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive are used to calculate the zonal-mean change in seasonal land precipitation for the second half of the twentieth century in response to a range of external forcings, including anthropogenic and natural forcings combined (ALL), greenhouse gas forcing, anthropogenic aerosol forcing, anthropogenic forcings combined, and natural forcing. These simulated patterns of change are used as fingerprints in a detection and attribution study applied to four different gridded observational datasets of global land precipitation from 1951 to 2005. There are large differences in the spatial and temporal coverage in the observational datasets. Yet despite these differences, the zonal-mean patterns of change are mostly consistent except at latitudes where spatial coverage is limited. The results show some differences between datasets, but the influence of external forcings is robustly detected in March-May, December-February, and for annual changes for the three datasets more suitable for studying changes. For June-August and September-November, external forcing is only detected for the dataset that includes only long-term stations. Fingerprints for combinations of forcings that include the effect of greenhouse gases are similarly detectable to those for ALL forcings, suggesting that greenhouse gas influence drives the detectable features of the ALL forcing fingerprint. Fingerprints of only natural or only anthropogenic aerosol forcing are not detected. This, together with two-fingerprint results, suggests that at least some of the detected change in zonal land precipitation can be attributed to human influences

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

REQUITE: A prospective multicentre cohort study of patients undergoing radiotherapy for breast, lung or prostate cancer

Purpose: REQUITE aimed to establish a resource for multi-national validation of models and biomarkers that predict risk of late toxicity following radiotherapy. The purpose of this article is to provide summary descriptive data. Methods: An international, prospective cohort study recruited cancer patients in 26 hospitals in eight countries between April 2014 and March 2017. Target recruitment was 5300 patients. Eligible patients had breast, prostate or lung cancer and planned potentially curable radiotherapy. Radiotherapy was prescribed according to local regimens, but centres used standardised data collection forms. Pre-treatment blood samples were collected. Patients were followed for a minimum of 12 (lung) or 24 (breast/prostate) months and summary descriptive statistics were generated. Results: The study recruited 2069 breast (99% of target), 1808 prostate (86%) and 561 lung (51%) cancer patients. The centralised, accessible database includes: physician-(47,025 forms) and patient-(54,901) reported outcomes; 11,563 breast photos; 17,107 DICOMs and 12,684 DVHs. Imputed genotype data are available for 4223 patients with European ancestry (1948 breast, 1728 prostate, 547 lung). Radiation-induced lymphocyte apoptosis (RILA) assay data are available for 1319 patients. DNA (n = 4409) and PAXgene tubes (n = 3039) are stored in the centralised biobank. Example prevalences of 2-year (1-year for lung) grade >= 2 CTCAE toxicities are 13% atrophy (breast), 3% rectal bleeding (prostate) and 27% dyspnoea (lung). Conclusion: The comprehensive centralised database and linked biobank is a valuable resource for the radiotherapy community for validating predictive models and biomarkers. Patient summary: Up to half of cancer patients undergo radiation therapy and irradiation of surrounding healthy tissue is unavoidable. Damage to healthy tissue can affect short-and long-term quality-of-life. Not all patients are equally sensitive to radiation "damage" but it is not possible at the moment to identify those who are. REQUITE was established with the aim of trying to understand more about how we could predict radiation sensitivity. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and summary of the data and material available. In the REQUITE study 4400 breast, prostate and lung cancer patients filled out questionnaires and donated blood. A large amount of data was collected in the same way. With all these data and samples a database and biobank were created that showed it is possible to collect this kind of information in a standardised way across countries. In the future, our database and linked biobank will be a resource for research and validation of clinical predictors and models of radiation sensitivity. REQUITE will also enable a better understanding of how many people suffer with radiotherapy toxicity