Do participatory scenario exercises promote systems thinking and build consensus?

Participatory scenario processes are associated with positive social learning outcomes, including consensus-building and shifts toward more systemic thinking. However, these claims have not been assessed quantitatively in diverse cultural and socio-ecological settings. We convened three stakeholder workshops around the future of agricultural development and rural livelihoods in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Malawi, using a participatory scenario generation process to examine proposed research and action priorities under conditions of uncertainty. We administered pre- and post-workshop surveys, and used a paired t-test to assess how stakeholders’ rankings of research priorities changed after participating in the scenario visioning exercise. Workshop participants also listed their own priorities for research and implementation on both the pre- and post-survey forms. We found indications that the workshops promoted consensus-building around the research priorities, including a reduction in standard deviation of priority rankings post-workshop compared to pre-workshop; and a higher incidence of identical volunteered responses. We did not find evidence to support shifts in thinking to more systemic views of agricultural development. However, participants viewed themselves as having learned throughout the process. We conclude that scenario visioning does have the potential to foster consensus-building (one element of social learning) among diverse stakeholder groups. We urge researchers to continue to monitor and measure systems thinking outcomes from scenario visioning so that these processes may be designed to be more effective

Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa

Participatory modeling has been widely recognized in recent years as a powerful tool for dealing with risk and uncertainty. By incorporating multiple perspectives into the structure of a model, we hypothesize that sources of risk can be identified and analyzed more comprehensively compared to traditional ‘expert-driven’ models. However, one of the weaknesses of a participatory modeling process is that it is typically not feasible to involve more than a few dozen people in model creation, and valuable perspectives on sources of risk may therefore be absent. We sought to address this weakness by conducting parallel participatory modeling processes in three countries in West Africa with similar climates and smallholder agricultural systems, but widely differing political and cultural contexts. Stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria participated in either a scenario planning process or a causal loop diagramming process, in which they were asked about drivers of agricultural productivity and food security, and sources of risk, including climate risk, between the present and mid-century (2035–2050). Participants in all three workshops identified both direct and indirect sources of climate risk, as they interact with other critical drivers of agricultural systems change, such as water availability, political investment in agriculture, and land availability. We conclude that participatory systems methods are a valuable addition to the suite of methodologies for analyzing climate risk and that scientists and policy-makers would do well to consider dynamic interactions between drivers of risk when assessing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change

Achieving sustainable future objectives under uncertain conditions: Application of a learning framework to adaptation pathways in rural Mali

Adaptation Pathways have emerged as promising approaches for exploring sequences of actions to address challenges in uncertain conditions. This study elaborates on how pathway approaches operate in practice by applying a learning framework that identifies guiding propositions for successful adaptation pathways. The framework is used to analyze a transformative scenario planning case study from rural Mali. Findings confirm that adaptation pathways are highly context-specific, grounded in local institutions. The study also emphasizes that the adaptation pathways process requires a sufficient timeframe to allow for cross-level interactions and institutional changes to unfold as needed. The case demonstrates that the framework can be a useful tool for reflexive learning and identifying gaps in a structured way during pathway development. However, it needs to be adjusted to specific contexts to better capture the influence of and implications for power relations and social inequality in future adaptation plans

Multi-scale governance in agriculture systems: Interplay between national and local institutions around the production dimension of food security in Mali

Enforcement of rules and laws designed at the national level is still one of the dominant institutional mechanisms for effective multiscale governance in most countries. At times, such blanket regulations are not only unable to meet practical needs at local levels, but they may conflict with local institutional logics, thereby creating new challenges. This study looks at three institutional arrangements in the agriculture and food security sector in the district of Koutiala, Mali to analyse the institutional variety across scale and the underlying institutional logics. On one side, the Cooperative Law as well as the Seed Law both designed at national level to enable famers’ access to agriculture services and improved seeds have yielded mixed results with regard to anticipated outcomes. The cooperative law is believed to degrade the social cohesion and the mutual support on which vulnerable farmers rely when facing climatic and non-climatic risks whereas the new seed system is found onerous and unaffordable for farmers. On the other side, the local convention for the management of natural resources established as part of ongoing decentralised governance policy seems to resonate with local culture but challenged by other stakeholders. Through exploring these cases, this paper tests bricolage as an analytical framework for doing an institutional diagnostic. It aims at contributing to methodological and theoretical insights on the way sustainable institutions can be generated in conflicting institutional logics in the context of multi-scale governance

Effective Soft-Core Potentials and Mesoscopic Simulations of Binary Polymer Mixtures

Mesoscopic molecular dynamics simulations are used to determine the large scale structure of several binary polymer mixtures of various chemical architecture, concentration, and thermodynamic conditions. By implementing an analytical formalism, which is based on the solution to the Ornstein-Zernike equation, each polymer chain is mapped onto the level of a single soft colloid. From the appropriate closure relation, the effective, soft-core potential between coarse-grained units is obtained and used as input to our mesoscale simulations. The potential derived in this manner is analytical and explicitly parameter dependent, making it general and transferable to numerous systems of interest. From computer simulations performed under various thermodynamic conditions the structure of the polymer mixture, through pair correlation functions, is determined over the entire miscible region of the phase diagram. In the athermal regime mesoscale simulations exhibit quantitative agreement with united atom simulations. Furthermore, they also provide information at larger scales than can be attained by united atom simulations and in the thermal regime approaching the phase transition.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

Formative evaluation and adaptation of a hypertension Extension for Community Health Outcomes program for healthcare workers within the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria

BACKGROUND: The Extension for Community Health Outcomes (ECHO) model has been used extensively to link care providers in rural communities with experts with the aim of improving local patient care. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this qualitative research study was to assess the feasibility, acceptability, perceived needs, and contextual factors to guide implementation of a hypertension focused ECHO program for Community Health Extension Workers (CHEWs) in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. METHODS: From September 2020 to December 2020, key informant interviews were performed with seven global organizations (hubs) providing ECHO training focused on cardiovascular disease or nephrology to identify contextual factors and implementation strategies used by each hub. In February 2022, seven focus group discussions were performed with 42 frontline healthcare workers in the Federal Capital Territory to inform local adaptation of a hypertension ECHO program. Directed content analysis identified major themes which were mapped to the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. Qualitative analyses were performed using Dedoose, and results were synthesized using the Implementation Research Logic Model. RESULTS: We found both barriers and facilitators across the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research domains that mapped to a number of constructs in each one. The results of these analyses confirmed that the core components of the ECHO model are a feasible and appropriate intervention for hypertension education of healthcare workers. However, implementing the ECHO program within the Federal Capital Territory may require strategies such as utilizing communications resources effectively, developing incentives to motivate initial participation, and providing rewards or recognition for ongoing engagement. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide valuable formative insights to guide implementation of our proposed hypertension ECHO program for CHEWs in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. This information was used for key decisions around: 1) scope and content of training, 2) format and frequency, 3) selection of implementation strategies, and 4) building a community of practice

Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process

Analysis of equations of state for polymers

AbstractIn the literature there are several studies comparing the accuracy of various models in describing the PvT behavior of polymers. However, most of these studies do not provide information about the quality of the estimated parameters or the sensitivity of the prediction of thermodynamic properties to the parameters of the equations. Furthermore, there are few studies exploring the prediction of thermal expansion and compression coefficients. Based on these observations, the objective of this study is to deepen the analysis of Tait, HH (Hartmann-Haque), MCM (modified cell model) and SHT (simplified hole theory) equations of state in predicting the PvT behavior of polymers, for both molten and solid states. The results showed that all equations of state provide an adequate description of the PvT behavior in the molten state, with low standard deviations in the estimation of parameters, adequate sensitivity of their parameters and plausible prediction of specific volume, thermal expansion and isothermal compression coefficients. In the solid state the Tait equation exhibited similar performance to the molten state, while HH showed satisfactory results for amorphous polymers and difficulty in adjusting the PvT curve for semicrystalline polymers.</p

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Zebrafish as a model for kidney function and disease

Kidney disease is a global problem with around three million people diagnosed in the UK alone and the incidence is rising. Research is critical to develop better treatments. Animal models can help to better understand the pathophysiology behind the various kidney diseases and to screen for therapeutic compounds, but the use especially of mammalian models should be minimised in the interest of animal welfare. Zebrafish are increasingly used, as they are genetically tractable and have a basic renal anatomy comparable to mammalian kidneys with glomerular filtration and tubular filtration processing. Here, we discuss how zebrafish have advanced the study of nephrology and the mechanisms underlying kidney disease