Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

A three-dimensional human atrial model with fiber orientation. Electrograms and arrhythmic activation patterns relationship

The most common sustained cardiac arrhythmias in humans are atrial tachyarrhythmias, mainly atrial fibrillation. Areas of complex fractionated atrial electrograms and high dominant frequency have been proposed as critical regions for maintaining atrial fibrillation; however, there is a paucity of data on the relationship between the characteristics of electrograms and the propagation pattern underlying them. In this study, a realistic 3D computer model of the human atria has been developed to investigate this relationship. The model includes a realistic geometry with fiber orientation, anisotropic conductivity and electrophysiological heterogeneity. We simulated different tachyarrhythmic episodes applying both transient and continuous ectopic activity. Electrograms and their dominant frequency and organization index values were calculated over the entire atrial surface. Our simulations show electrograms with simple potentials, with little or no cycle length variations, narrow frequency peaks and high organization index values during stable and regular activity as the observed in atrial flutter, atrial tachycardia (except in areas of conduction block) and in areas closer to ectopic activity during focal atrial fibrillation. By contrast, cycle length variations and polymorphic electrograms with single, double and fragmented potentials were observed in areas of irregular and unstable activity during atrial fibrillation episodes. Our results also show: 1) electrograms with potentials without negative deflection related to spiral or curved wavefronts that pass over the recording point and move away, 2) potentials with a much greater proportion of positive deflection than negative in areas of wave collisions, 3) double potentials related with wave fragmentations or blocking lines and 4) fragmented electrograms associated with pivot points. Our model is the first human atrial model with realistic fiber orientation used to investigate the relationship between different atrial arrhythmic propagation patterns and the electrograms observed at more than 43000 points on the atrial surface.This work was partially supported by the Plan Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica, Desarrollo e Innovacion Tecnologica, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion of Spain (TEC2008-02090), by the Plan Avanza (Accion Estrategica de Telecomunicaciones y Sociedad de la Informacion), Ministerio de Industria Turismo y Comercio of Spain (TSI-020100-2010-469), by the Programa Prometeo 2012 of the Generalitat Valenciana and by the Programa de Apoyo a la Investigacion y Desarrollo de la Universitat Politecnica de Valencia (PAID-06-11-2002). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Tobón Zuluaga, C.; Ruiz Villa, CA.; Heidenreich, E.; Romero Pérez, L.; Hornero, F.; Saiz Rodríguez, FJ. (2013). A three-dimensional human atrial model with fiber orientation. Electrograms and arrhythmic activation patterns relationship. PLoS ONE. 8(2):1-13. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050883S11382Ho SY, Sanchez-Quintana D, Anderson RH (1998) Can anatomy define electric pathways? In: International Workshop on Computer Simulation and Experimental Assessment of Electrical Cardiac Function, Lausanne, Switzerland. 77–86.Tobón C (2009) Evaluación de factores que provocan fibrilación auricular y de su tratamiento mediante técnicas quirúrgicas. Estudio de simulación. Master Thesis Universitat Politècnica de València.Ruiz C (2010) Estudio de la vulnerabilidad a reentradas a través de modelos matemáticos y simulación de la aurícula humana. Doctoral Thesis Universitat Politècnica de València.Tobón C (2010) Modelización y evaluación de factores que favorecen las arritmias auriculares y su tratamiento mediante técnicas quirúrgicas. Estudio de simulación. Doctoral Thesis Universitat Politècnica de València.Henriquez, C. S., & Papazoglou, A. A. (1996). Using computer models to understand the roles of tissue structure and membrane dynamics in arrhythmogenesis. Proceedings of the IEEE, 84(3), 334-354. doi:10.1109/5.486738Grimm, R. A., Chandra, S., Klein, A. L., Stewart, W. J., Black, I. W., Kidwell, G. A., & Thomas, J. D. (1996). Characterization of left atrial appendage Doppler flow in atrial fibrillation and flutter by Fourier analysis. American Heart Journal, 132(2), 286-296. doi:10.1016/s0002-8703(96)90424-xMaleckar, M. M., Greenstein, J. L., Giles, W. R., & Trayanova, N. A. (2009). K+ current changes account for the rate dependence of the action potential in the human atrial myocyte. American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology, 297(4), H1398-H1410. doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00411.200

XVI International Congress of Control Electronics and Telecommunications: "Techno-scientific considerations for a post-pandemic world intensive in knowledge, innovation and sustainable local development"

Este título, sugestivo por los impactos durante la situación de la Covid 19 en el mundo, y que en Colombia lastimosamente han sido muy críticos, permiten asumir la obligada superación de tensiones sociales, políticas, y económicas; pero sobre todo científicas y tecnológicas. Inicialmente, esto supone la existencia de una capacidad de la sociedad colombiana por recuperar su estado inicial después de que haya cesado la perturbación a la que fue sometida por la catastrófica pandemia, y superar ese anterior estado de cosas ya que se encontraban -y aún se encuentran- muchos problemas locales mal resueltos, medianamente resueltos, y muchos sin resolver: es decir, habrá que rediseñar y fortalecer una probada resiliencia social existente - producto del prolongado conflicto social colombiano superado parcialmente por un proceso de paz exitoso - desde la tecnociencia local; como lo indicaba Markus Brunnermeier - economista alemán y catedrático de economía de la Universidad de Princeton- en su libro The Resilient Society…La cuestión no es preveerlo todo sino poder reaccionar…aprender a recuperarse rápido.This title, suggestive of the impacts during the Covid 19 situation in the world, and which have unfortunately been very critical in Colombia, allows us to assume the obligatory overcoming of social, political, and economic tensions; but above all scientific and technological. Initially, this supposes the existence of a capacity of Colombian society to recover its initial state after the disturbance to which it was subjected by the catastrophic pandemic has ceased, and to overcome that previous state of affairs since it was found -and still is find - many local problems poorly resolved, moderately resolved, and many unresolved: that is, an existing social resilience test will have to be redesigned and strengthened - product of the prolonged Colombian social conflict partially overcome by a successful peace process - from local technoscience; As Markus Brunnermeier - German economist and professor of economics at Princeton University - indicates in his book The Resilient Society...The question is not to foresee everything but to be able to react...learn to recover quickly.Bogot

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. LANCET. 2016;388(10053):1659-1724.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Analytical Validation of the IMMULITE® 2000 XPi Progesterone Assay for Quantitative Analysis in Ovine Serum

Monitoring circulating progesterone (P4) concentration is an important component of basic and applied reproduction research and clinical settings. IMMULITE® 2000 XPi (Siemens) is a newly upgraded fully automated immunoassay system marketed for human use to measure concentrations of different analytes including P4. Our objective was therefore to characterize the analytical performance of the IMMULITE® 2000 XPi P4 immunoassay across the reportable range in ovine serum. This validation of analytical performance included determining (1) linearity, (2) precision through within-run, and between-run coefficient of variation (CV) calculations, (3) accuracy through bias calculations for spiking-recovery bias and interlaboratory (range and average based) bias for two laboratories across the reportable range (0.2–40 ng/mL). The average within-run and between-run precision (CV%) across the reportable range of the IMMULITE® 2000 XPi P4 immunoassay for serum P4 concentration were both <5%, ranging between 2–8%. The average Observed Total Analytic Error (TEo) reported here for serum P4 concentration across the reportable range was ~30%, ranging from 14.8–59.4%, regardless of the considered bias. Based on these data we conclude that the automated IMMULITE® 2000 XPi P4 immunoassay provides a precise, accurate, reliable, and safe method for measuring P4 concentration ovine serum

Análisis CIPEI No. 32. Edición Especial junto al GEЯR y el GESYDS "A un año de la Guerra en Ucrania"

A un año de iniciado el conflicto bélico en Ucrania, el Grupo de Estudio sobre Rusia de Rosario (GEЯR) se propuso examinar algunas aristas inherentes al mismo partiendo de la consideración de que se trata de un escenario cuyos procesos se viene configurando desde, al menos, la anexión de Crimea en 2014. Por otra parte, el Grupo de Estudio de Seguridad y Defensa en Sudamérica (GESYDS) también consideró necesario indagar acerca de dicho conflicto pero poniendo el foco de atención en el posicionamiento de los estados de la subregión así como en el vínculo que mantienen con Rusia. Cabe señalar que ambos grupos de estudio son coordinados por la Dra. Emilse Calderón y se encuentran radicados en el Instituto de Investigaciones de la Facultad de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales, siendo parte también del Centro de Investigaciones en Políticas y Economía Internacional (CIPEI).Fil: Albini, Agustín. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencia Política y Relaciones Internacionales; Argentina