Coastal Ocean Forecasting: science foundation and user benefits

The advancement of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) requires the support of continuous scientific progress addressing: (a) the primary mechanisms driving coastal circulation; (b) methods to achieve fully integrated coastal systems (observations and models), that are dynamically embedded in larger scale systems; and (c) methods to adequately represent air-sea and biophysical interactions. Issues of downscaling, data assimilation, atmosphere-wave-ocean couplings and ecosystem dynamics in the coastal ocean are discussed. These science topics are fundamental for successful COFS, which are connected to evolving downstream applications, dictated by the socioeconomic needs of rapidly increasing coastal populations

Assessing the impact of observations on ocean forecasts and reanalyses: Part 2, Regional applications

The value of global (e.g., altimetry, satellite sea-surface temperature, Argo) and regional (e.g., radars, gliders, instrumented mammals, airborne profiles, biogeochemical) observation-types for monitoring the mesoscale ocean circulation and biogeochemistry is demonstrated using a suite of global and regional prediction systems and remotely-sensed data. A range of techniques is used to demonstrate the value of different observation-types to regional systems and the benefit of high- resolution and adaptive sampling for monitoring the mesoscale circulation. The techniques include Observing System Experiments, Observing System Simulation Experiments, adjoint sensitivities, representer matrix spectrum, observation footprints, information content and spectral analysis. It is shown that local errors in global and basin-scale systems can be significantly reduced when assimilating observations from regional observing systems

Cold event in the South Atlantic Bight during summer of 2003 : model simulations and implications

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): C05022, doi:10.1029/2006JC003903.A set of model simulations are used to determine the principal forcing mechanisms that resulted in anomalously cold water in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) in the summer of 2003. Updated mass field and elevation boundary conditions from basin-scale Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations are compared to climatological forcing to provide offshore and upstream influences in a one-way nesting sense. Model skill is evaluated by comparing model results with observations of velocity, water level, and surface and bottom temperature. Inclusion of realistic atmospheric forcing, river discharge, and improved model dynamics produced good skill on the inner shelf and midshelf. The intrusion of cold water onto the shelf occurred predominantly along the shelf-break associated with onshore flow in the southern part of the domain north of Cape Canaveral (29° to 31.5°). The atmospheric forcing (anomalously strong and persistent upwelling-favorable winds) was the principal mechanism driving the cold event. Elevated river discharge increased the level of stratification across the inner shelf and midshelf and contributed to additional input of cold water into the shelf. The resulting pool of anomalously cold water constituted more than 50% of the water on the shelf in late July and early August. The excess nutrient flux onto the shelf associated with the upwelling was approximated using published nitrate-temperature proxies, suggesting increased primary production during the summer over most of the SAB shelf.The preparation of this paper was primarily supported by the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (SEACOOS) and the South Atlantic Bight Limited Area Model (SABLAM). SEACOOS is a collaborative, regional program sponsored by the Office of Naval Research under award N00014-02-1-0972 and managed by the University of North Carolina-General Administration. SABLAM was sponsored by the National Ocean Partnership Program (award NAG 13-00041). Data from ship surveys were collected and processed with the support from NSF grant OCE-0099167 (J. R. Nelson), NSF grant OCE-9982133 (J. O. Blanton, SkIO), NASA grant NAG-10557 (J. R. Nelson), and SEACOOS. NOAA NDBC buoy data and NOS coastal water level records were obtained through NOAA-supported data archives and web portals. Moored instrument data from the Carolina Coastal Ocean Observation and Prediction System (Caro-COOPS) were acquired from the system’s website (http://www.carocoops.org). Caro-COOPS is sponsored by NOAA grant NA16RP2543

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

A three-dimensional coupled model of the western Black Sea plankton dynamics: Seasonal variability and comparison to SeaWiFS data

The main physical and biological processes that control the seasonal cycle of the plankton dynamics over the Western Black Sea were explored by means of a three‐dimensional, 7‐compartment, on‐line coupled biophysical model that was developed for this study. Adopting high frequency forcing in terms of air‐sea interaction and Danube river inputs, we performed a simulation of the coupled model during the 2002–2003 period. A series of 8‐day Chl‐a SeaWiFS images provided a validation tool that guided us, along with available in situ measurements, to the improvement of model parameterizations and the calibration of the biological parameters. The simulation of the seasonal phytoplankton variability over the entire Western Black Sea, extending from the highly eutrophic river influenced area to the open sea area, was a major challenge that made necessary the representation of both the spatial and time variability of several processes. Despite the model simplicity, the simulated Chl‐a patterns presented a good agreement as compared to the SeaWiFS and in situ data. During winter, phytoplankton in coastal areas was shown to be limited by light availability, primarily due to the increased particulate matter concentrations, as a result of resuspension from the sediment and the increased river loads. During summer, the primary production was mostly sustained by riverine nutrients and regeneration processes and thus was strongly linked to the evolution of the Danube plume. The limiting nutrients showed deviations from the observed concentrations, indicating the necessity for a more realistic phytoplankton growth model

Mississippi River and Sea Surface Height Effects on Oil Slick Migration

Millions of barrels of oil escaped into the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) after the 20 April, 2010 explosion of Deepwater Horizon (DH). Ocean circulation models were used to forecast oil slick migration in the GoM, however such models do not explicitly treat the effects of secondary eddy-slopes or Mississippi River (MR) hydrodynamics. Here we report oil front migration that appears to be driven by sea surface level (SSL) slopes, and identify a previously unreported effect of the MR plume: under conditions of relatively high river discharge and weak winds, a freshwater mound can form around the MR Delta. We performed temporal oil slick position and altimeter analysis, employing both interpolated altimetry data and along-track measurements for coastal applications. The observed freshwater mound appears to have pushed the DH oil slick seaward from the Delta coastline. We provide a physical mechanism for this novel effect of the MR, using a two-layer pressure-driven flow model. Results show how SSL variations can drive a cross-slope migration of surface oil slicks that may reach velocities of order km/day, and confirm a lag time of order 5–10 days between mound formation and slick migration, as observed form the satellite analysis. Incorporating these effects into more complex ocean models will improve forecasts of slick migration for future spills. More generally, large SSL variations at the MR mouth may also affect the dispersal of freshwater, nutrients and sediment associated with the MR plume

Sediment dispersal in the northwestern Adriatic Sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C11S03, doi:10.1029/2006JC003868.Sediment dispersal in the Adriatic Sea was evaluated using coupled three-dimensional circulation and sediment transport models, representing conditions from autumn 2002 through spring 2003. The calculations accounted for fluvial sources, resuspension by waves and currents, and suspended transport. Sediment fluxes peaked during southwestward Bora wind conditions that produced energetic waves and strengthened the Western Adriatic Coastal Current. Transport along the western Adriatic continental shelf was nearly always to the south, except during brief periods when northward Sirocco winds reduced the coastal current. Much of the modeled fluvial sediment deposition was near river mouths, such as the Po subaqueous delta. Nearly all Po sediment remained in the northern Adriatic. Material from rivers that drain the Apennine Mountains traveled farther before deposition than Po sediment, because it was modeled with a lower settling velocity. Fluvial sediment delivered to areas with high average bed shear stress was more highly dispersed than material delivered to more quiescent areas. Modeled depositional patterns were similar to observed patterns that have developed over longer timescales. Specifically, modeled Po sediment accumulation was thickest near the river mouth with a very thin deposit extending to the northeast, consistent with patterns of modern sediment texture in the northern Adriatic. Sediment resuspended from the bed and delivered by Apennine Rivers was preferentially deposited on the northern side of the Gargano Peninsula, in the location of thick Holocene accumulation. Deposition here was highest during Bora winds when convergences in current velocities and off-shelf flux enhanced delivery of material to the midshelf.The authors are grateful for funding and support from the Office of Naval Research’s Coastal Geosciences and Marine Modeling programs, the U.S. Geological Survey, and NATO’s SACLANT-CEN

Coastal Ocean Forecasting: science foundation and user benefits

The advancement of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) requires the support of continuous scientific progress addressing: (a) the primary mechanisms driving coastal circulation; (b) methods to achieve fully integrated coastal systems (observations and models), that are dynamically embedded in larger scale systems; and (c) methods to adequately represent air-sea and biophysical interactions. Issues of downscaling, data assimilation, atmosphere-wave-ocean couplings and ecosystem dynamics in the coastal ocean are discussed. These science topics are fundamental for successful COFS, which are connected to evolving downstream applications, dictated by the socioeconomic needs of rapidly increasing coastal populations

Towards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.RP was funded by NASA grant NNH16CT00C. CD was supported by the Australian Research Council (FT130101532 and DP 160103130), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 148, funded by national SCOR committees and a grant to SCOR from the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1546580), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO/International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IOC/IODE) IQuOD Steering Group. SJ was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council under Grant Agreement No. NE/P01517/1 and by the EPSRC NEWTON Fund Sustainable Deltas Programme, Grant Number EP/R024537/1. RvdW received funding from NWO, Grant 866.13.001. WH was supported by NASA (NNX17AI63G and NNX17AH25G). CL was supported by NASA Grant NNH16CT01C. This work is a contribution to the PIRATE project funded by CNES (to TP). PT was supported by the NOAA Research Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program through its sponsorship of UHSLC (NA16NMF4320058). JS was supported by EU contract 730030 (call H2020-EO-2016, “CEASELESS”). JW was supported by EU Horizon 2020 Grant 633211, Atlantos