A detection of wobbling brightest cluster galaxies within massive galaxy clusters

A striking signal of dark matter beyond the standard model is the existence of cores in the centre of galaxy clusters. Recent simulations predict that a brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) inside a cored galaxy cluster will exhibit residual wobbling due to previous major mergers, long after the relaxation of the overall cluster. This phenomenon is absent with standard cold dark matter where a cuspy density profile keeps a BCG tightly bound at the centre. We test this hypothesis using cosmological simulations and deep observations of 10 galaxy clusters acting as strong gravitational lenses. Modelling the BCG wobble as a simple harmonic oscillator, we measure the wobble amplitude, Aw, in the BAHAMAS suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, finding an upper limit for the cold dark matter paradigm of Aw < 2 kpc at the 95 per cent confidence limit. We carry out the same test on the data finding a non-zero amplitude of Aw=11.82+7.3−3.0 kpc, with the observations dis-favouring Aw = 0 at the 3σ confidence level. This detection of BCG wobbling is evidence for a dark matter core at the heart of galaxy clusters. It also shows that strong lensing models of clusters cannot assume that the BCG is exactly coincident with the large-scale halo. While our small sample of galaxy clusters already indicates a non-zero Aw, with larger surveys, e.g. Euclid, we will be able to not only confirm the effect but also to use it to determine whether or not the wobbling finds its origin in new fundamental physics or astrophysical process

DESI and DECaLS (D&D): galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements with 1 per cent survey and its forecast

The shear measurement from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) provides an excellent opportunity for galaxy-galaxy lensing study with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) galaxies, given the large (∼9000 deg2) sky overlap. We explore this potential by combining the DESI 1 per cent survey and DECaLS Data Release 8 (DR8). With ∼106 deg2 sky overlap, we achieve significant detection of galaxy-galaxy lensing for Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and luminous red galaxy (LRG) as lenses. Scaled to the full BGS sample, we expect the statistical errors to improve from to a promising level of at. This brings stronger requirements for future systematics control. To fully realize such potential, we need to control the residual multiplicative shear bias |m| < 0.006 and the bias in the mean redshift |Δz| < 0.008, requiring the introduced bias in the measurement is <0.31σ. We also expect significant detection of galaxy-galaxy lensing with DESI LRG/emission line galaxy (ELG) full samples as lenses, and cosmic magnification of ELG through cross-correlation with low-redshift DECaLS shear. If such systematical error control can be achieved, we find the advantages of DECaLS, comparing with the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS) and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC), are at low redshift, large scale, and in measuring the shear ratio (to σR ∼0.04) and cosmic magnification

Early star-forming galaxies and the reionization of the Universe

Star forming galaxies represent a valuable tracer of cosmic history. Recent observational progress with Hubble Space Telescope has led to the discovery and study of the earliest-known galaxies corresponding to a period when the Universe was only ~800 million years old. Intense ultraviolet radiation from these early galaxies probably induced a major event in cosmic history: the reionization of intergalactic hydrogen. New techniques are being developed to understand the properties of these most distant galaxies and determine their influence on the evolution of the universe.Comment: Review article appearing in Nature. This posting reflects a submitted version of the review formatted by the authors, in accordance with Nature publication policies. For the official, published version of the review, please see http://www.nature.com/nature/archive/index.htm

Bayesian modelling of the effect of climate on malaria in Burundi

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Burundi, malaria is a major public health issue in terms of both morbidity and mortality with around 2.5 million clinical cases and more than 15,000 deaths each year. It is the single main cause of mortality in pregnant women and children below five years of age. Due to the severe health and economic cost of malaria, there is still a growing need for methods that will help to understand the influencing factors. Several studies have been done on the subject yielding different results as which factors are most responsible for the increase in malaria. The purpose of this study has been to undertake a spatial/longitudinal statistical analysis to identify important climatic variables that influence malaria incidences in Burundi.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper investigates the effects of climate on malaria in Burundi. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in the area of Burundi are described and analysed. From this analysis, a mathematical model is derived and proposed to assess which variables significantly influence malaria incidences in Burundi. The proposed modelling is based on both generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM). The modelling is fully Bayesian and inference is carried out by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results obtained from the proposed models are discussed and it is found that malaria incidence in a given month in Burundi is strongly positively associated with the minimum temperature of the previous month. In contrast, it is found that rainfall and maximum temperature in a given month have a possible negative effect on malaria incidence of the same month.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has exploited available real monthly data on malaria and climate over 12 years in Burundi to derive and propose a regression modelling to assess climatic factors that are associated with monthly malaria incidence. The results obtained from the proposed models suggest a strong positive association between malaria incidence in a given month and the minimum temperature (night temperature) of the previous month. An open question is, therefore, how to cope with high temperatures at night.</p

The DESI One-Percent Survey: exploring a generalized SHAM for multiple tracers with the UNIT simulation

We perform SubHalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) studies on UNIT simulations with {σ, Vceil, vsmear}-SHAM and {σ, Vceil, fsat}-SHAM. They are designed to reproduce the clustering on 5-30 of luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) at 0.4 < z < 3.5 from DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument) One Percent Survey. Vceil is the incompleteness of the massive host (sub)haloes and is the key to the generalized SHAM. vsmear models the clustering effect of redshift uncertainties, providing measurements consistent with those from repeat observations. A free satellite fraction fsat is necessary to reproduce the clustering of ELGs. We find ELGs present a more complex galaxy-halo mass relation than LRGs reflected in their weak constraints on σ. LRGs, QSOs, and ELGs show increasing Vceil values, corresponding to the massive galaxy incompleteness of LRGs, the quenched star formation of ELGs and the quenched black hole accretion of QSOs. For LRGs, a Gaussian vsmear presents a better profile for subsamples at redshift bins than a Lorentzian profile used for other tracers. The impact of the statistical redshift uncertainty on ELG clustering is negligible. The best-fitting satellite fraction for DESI ELGs is around 4 per cent, lower than previous estimations for ELGs. The mean halo mass log10((Mvir)) in for LRGs, ELGs, and QSOs are 13.16 ± 0.01, 11.90 ± 0.06, and 12.66 ± 0.45, respectively. Our generalized SHAM algorithms facilitate the production of multitracer galaxy mocks for cosmological tests

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

© 2008 Author et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Health 7 (2008): S5, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S5.Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.The authors acknowledge the financial support for the NSF/NIEHS and NOAA Centers for Oceans and Human Healt

The Robotic Multiobject Focal Plane System of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)

A system of 5020 robotic fiber positioners was installed in 2019 on the Mayall Telescope, at Kitt Peak National Observatory. The robots automatically retarget their optical fibers every 10-20 minutes, each to a precision of several microns, with a reconfiguration time of fewer than 2 minutes. Over the next 5 yr, they will enable the newly constructed Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to measure the spectra of 35 million galaxies and quasars. DESI will produce the largest 3D map of the universe to date and measure the expansion history of the cosmos. In addition to the 5020 robotic positioners and optical fibers, DESI’s Focal Plane System includes six guide cameras, four wave front cameras, 123 fiducial point sources, and a metrology camera mounted at the primary mirror. The system also includes associated structural, thermal, and electrical systems. In all, it contains over 675,000 individual parts. We discuss the design, construction, quality control, and integration of all these components. We include a summary of the key requirements, the review and acceptance process, on-sky validations of requirements, and lessons learned for future multiobject, fiber-fed spectrographs

Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmological implications from two decades of spectroscopic surveys at the Apache Point Observatory

We present the cosmological implications from final measurements of clustering using galaxies, quasars, and Ly α forests from the completed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) lineage of experiments in large-scale structure. These experiments, composed of data from SDSS, SDSS-II, BOSS, and eBOSS, offer independent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements of angular-diameter distances and Hubble distances relative to the sound horizon, r_{d}, from eight different samples and six measurements of the growth rate parameter, fσ_{8}, from redshift-space distortions (RSD). This composite sample is the most constraining of its kind and allows us to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cosmological model after two decades of dedicated spectroscopic observation. We show that the BAO data alone are able to rule out dark-energy-free models at more than eight standard deviations in an extension to the flat, Λ CDM model that allows for curvature. When combined with Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements of temperature and polarization, under the same model, the BAO data provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement on curvature constraints relative to primary CMB constraints alone. Independent of distance measurements, the SDSS RSD data complement weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in demonstrating a preference for a flat Λ CDM cosmological model when combined with Planck measurements. The combined BAO and RSD measurements indicate σ_{8} = 0.85 ± 0.03, implying a growth rate that is consistent with predictions from Planck temperature and polarization data and with General Relativity. When combining the results of SDSS BAO and RSD, Planck, Pantheon Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and DES weak lensing and clustering measurements, all multiple-parameter extensions remain consistent with a Λ CDM model. Regardless of cosmological model, the precision on each of the three parameters, Ω_{Λ}, H_{0}, and σ_{8}, remains at roughly 1%, showing changes of less than 0.6% in the central values between models. In a model that allows for free curvature and a time-evolving equation of state for dark energy, the combined samples produce a constraint Ω_{k} = −0.0022 ± 0.0022. The dark energy constraints lead to w_{0} = −0.909 ± 0.081 and w_{a} = −0.49^{+0.35}_{-0.30}, corresponding to an equation of state of w_{p} = 1.018 ± 0.032 at a pivot redshift z_{p} = 0.29 and a Dark Energy Task Force Figure of Merit of 94. The inverse distance ladder measurement under this model yields H_{0} = 68.18 ± 0.79 km s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}, remaining in tension with several direct determination methods; the BAO data allow Hubble constant estimates that are robust against the assumption of the cosmological model. In addition, the BAO data allow estimates of H_{0} that are independent of the CMB data, with similar central values and precision under a Λ CDM model. Our most constraining combination of data gives the upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses at ∑m_{v} < 0.115 eV (95% confidence). Finally, we consider the improvements in cosmology constraints over the last decade by comparing our results to a sample representative of the period 2000–2010. We compute the relative gain across the five dimensions spanned by w, Ω_{k}, ∑m_{v}, H_{0}, H_{0}, and σ_{8} and find that the SDSS BAO and RSD data reduce the total posterior volume by a factor of 40 relative to the previous generation. Adding again the Planck, DES, and Pantheon SN Ia samples leads to an overall contraction in the five-dimensional posterior volume of 3 orders of magnitude

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe