The Millennium Development Goals: How realistic are they?

Poverty reduction, Hunger, Lagging regions, Social innovation, United Nations, MDGs, Investment needs, infrastructure, health,

Creating safety nets through semi-parametric index-based insurance: A simulation for Northern Ghana

In West Africa, farm income is highly exposed to risks from crop failure in the drier, inland areas, and from fluctuations in (world market) prices in the wetter coastal areas. As individuals and even extended families are poorly equipped to deal with these, provision of social safety nets is required Our paper reviews the situation in Ghana and the way in which the new financial instrument of index-based insurance might contribute to better it, focusing on the estimation of a crop indemnification scheme for farmers in Northern Ghana. It recalls that in a poor rural area like Northern Ghana, provision of social safety almost coincides with food security management, and must, therefore, distinguish three basic subtasks: distributing income entitlements (possibly indemnification payments from insurance) to the poor, ensuring collection of taxes (possibly insurance premiums) to fund the arrangement, and assuring delivery of staple goods, such as food to the all households, including the poor. We point out that crop insurance, in any form can at best entitle the poor, and with adequate premiums, become adequately funded, albeit that current experience suggests that farmers tend to be reluctant and to find it difficult to fulfill their obligations. Our main remark is, however, that unless the actual availability of goods is assured, the indemnification from crop insurance will under droughts only cause prices to rise and channel away scarce food from the uninsured to the insured. In short, in poor areas such as Northern Ghana co-ordinated food security management is key, particularly under severe droughts, with crop insurance possibly playing a role in the spheres of entitlement and taxation. Turning to the modalities of crop insurance, we mention the advantages of the index-based approach, which as compared to the individualized contracts of commercial insurance greatly reduces transaction costs by basing the indemnification payments on objectively and easily measurable variables, such as rainfall data collected at weather stations, and world prices of main export goods. Our contribution is an improvement of the indemnification schedules. Rather than specifying a synthetic schedule or estimating is as a parametric form, we estimate it as an optimal indemnification that minimizes farmers' risk of having their income drop below the poverty line, while restricting the indemnification to be an unknown function of index variables on weather and prices. We adapt kernel learning technique to conduct this estimation, so as to ensure that the schedule is self-financing, up to a subsidy. Our application is for Northern Ghana where poverty is highest and farming conditions are most risky. We test the scheme's performance as a social safety net in terms of its capacity to reduce basis risk and alleviate poverty. Although our schedule definitely outperforms the parametric forms, basis risk and associated poverty remain considerable.Risk and Uncertainty,

China’s agricultural prospects and challenges: Report on scenario simulations until 2030 with the Chinagro welfare model covering national, regional and county level

The report describes prospects and challenges for Chinese agriculture until 2030 under different scenarios, using the Chinagro welfare model. A scenario is defined as a coherent set of assumptions about exogenous driving forces (farm land, population, non-agricultural growth, world prices etc.), derived from the literature and own assessments. Under these assumptions, simulations with the Chinagro model analyze the price-based interaction between the supply behavior of farmers, the demand behavior of consumers and the determination of trade flows by merchants. The outcomes from the Baseline scenario seem reassuring in that foreign imports remain moderate relative to China’s size, though quite large as fraction of world trade. It would be possible to feed people as well as animals without excessive imports. There is even a potential for significant export flows of vegetables and fruits. Regarding concerns, the trends in per capita agricultural value added are problematic, because they stay in all regions behind per capita value added outside agriculture, albeit that they are rising steadily. This leads to growing disparity in per capita incomes within and across regions. The mounting environmental pressure from fertilizer losses and unused manure surpluses is another cause of concern. The second scenario, the Trade liberalization scenario, appears to hurt farm incomes more than it benefits them and to raise the gap with non-agriculture, also because food becomes cheaper in urban areas. Hence, it highlights the difficult choice between economic efficiency and poverty alleviation that agricultural policy makers often face. The High income growth scenario reinforces the national food self-sufficiency result of the baseline simulation. Even with meat demand higher than under the baseline, levels of imports remain manageable. The High R&D scenario shows that a considerable reduction in dependence on agricultural imports is possible. However, a substantial part of the gains will accrue to consumers rather than to farmers, due to price reductions. Finally, the Enhanced irrigation scenario shows outcomes similar to those of the high R&D scenario. Here also the agricultural trade balance improves and consumer welfare improves, but farmers have to cope with drops in prices, and those who do not benefit from land improvement, only experience losses through falling prices. The present report is written at the onset of the CATSEI-project that will analyze policy packages with more specificity and detail after implementing the following model improvements. First, the impact of China’s imports and exports on world markets will be represented explicitly. Second, the developments outside agriculture in rural areas will be accounted for endogenously, particularly to represent farm revenue from off-farm employment. Third, the trade and transportation margins between farm-gates and markets will be made dependent on the relative flexibility of the actors (farmers, processors, traders) along the chain. Finally, the various techniques to identify more efficient and more sustainable use of scarce water and nutrients and to address health risks will appear more explicitly

Addressing diarrhea prevalence in the West African Middle Belt: social and geographic dimensions in a case study for Benin

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In West Africa, the Northern Sahelian zone and the coastal areas are densely populated but the Middle Belt in between is in general sparsely settled. Predictions of climate change foresee more frequent drought in the north and more frequent flooding in the coastal areas, while conditions in the Middle Belt will remain moderate. Consequently, the Middle Belt might become a major area for immigration but there may be constraining factors as well, particularly with respect to water availability. As a case study, the paper looks into the capacity of the Middle Belt zone of Benin, known as the Oueme River Basin (ORB), to reduce diarrhea prevalence. In Benin it links to the Millennium Development Goals on child mortality and environmental sustainability that are currently farthest from realization. However, diarrhea prevalence is only in part due to lack of availability of drinking water from a safe source. Social factors such as hygienic practices and poor sanitation are also at play. Furthermore, we consider these factors to possess the properties of a local public good that suffers from under provision and requires collective action, as individual actions to prevent illness are bound to fail as long as others free ride.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Combining data from the Demographic Health Survey with various spatial data sets for Benin, we apply mixed effect logit regression to arrive at a spatially explicit assessment of geographical and social determinants of diarrhea prevalence. Starting from an analysis of these factors separately at national level, we identify relevant proxies at household level, estimate a function with geo-referenced independent variables and apply it to evaluate the costs and impacts of improving access to good water in the basin.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>First, the study confirms the well established stylized fact on the causes of diarrhea that a household with access to clean water and with good hygienic practices will, irrespective of other conditions, not suffer diarrhea very often. Second, our endogeneity tests show that joint estimation performs better than an instrumental variable regression. Third, our model is stable with respect to its functional form, as competing specifications could not achieve better performance in overall likelihood or significance of parameters. Fourth, it finds that the richer and better educated segments of the population suffer much less from the disease and apparently can secure safe water for their households, irrespective of where they live. Fifth, regarding geographical causes, it indicates that diarrhea prevalence varies with groundwater availability and quality across Benin. Finally, our assessment of costs and benefits reveals that improving physical access to safe water is not expensive but can only marginally improve the overall health situation of the basin, unless the necessary complementary measures are taken in the social sphere.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The ORB provides adequate water resources to accommodate future settlers but it lacks appropriate infrastructure to deliver safe water to households. Moreover, hygienic practices are often deficient. Therefore, a multifaceted approach is needed that acknowledges the public good aspects of health situation and consequently combines collective action with investments into water sources with improved management of public wells and further educational efforts to change hygienic practices.</p

Farming and rural development in Ukraine: making dualisation work

Rural economy 1. Following the decollectivisation of agriculture in Ukraine, the dualisation between very large commercial farms and small individual farms has become a prevalent trend in the rural areas of Ukraine. 2. Rural farm households would need larger plots. They could benefit from mechanization. 3. Yet, as their crop yields are low and lie close to those of large farms that use far more chemical inputs and machinery, the area expansion could be kept modest. 4. Distribution of land ownership rights and cadastral registration need to be supplemented by introduction and registration of other formal titles such as the right of passage and the user rights in commons. 5. Shareholders of a large farm do not need to know the precise location of their property within the farm. Explicit cadastral registration of parcels into units smaller than the individual field is wasteful. 6. Land users should be made to pay due rent to landowners, private (e.g. pensioners), and public (e.g. municipalities), and no longer predominantly in kind. This could improve social safety nets, stimulate activities in rural villages, and improve the fiscal revenue of local governments. 7. Corporate farms should pay corporate taxes. 8. Since growth in employment has been stagnating in urban areas, rural areas have to provide for it, partly in horticulture, animal husbandry and agricultural processing, and partly in expanded household farms, possibly as small multi-household enterprises or cooperatives, on land returned from commercial farms. Foreign trade 9. Access to exports should be made available to all who deliver goods of adequate quality, and not only to specific trading companies who can get access to export licenses. 10. Product labeling on exports, could with adequate inspections, with labels requiring satisfaction of social as well as environmental standards, provide effective means to complement and support local governance. 11. Ukraine has considerable scope to step up its exports of grain and oilseeds, which might significantly contribute to world food security. Yet, to effectuate this expansion without amplifying prevailing price volatility, Ukraine will have to enhance its management of irrigation, storage and plant protection, to limit its support to biofuels and to abstain from imposition of export bans in response to shortfalls. Nutrient management 12. Large exports amount to large outflow of plant nutrients, and turn recycling and imports of nutrients into a necessity in preventing soil fertility loss and land degradation. Expansion of livestock activities with proper manure management also helps to compensate for this loss. Statistics and governance 13. There is domestic and foreign demand for independent and reliable information on prevailing social and environmental conditions, and trade regimes in Ukraine. A data platform that makes use of the available surveys, and avails of some capacity to conduct new ones could help meeting this need.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Seos suure viisiku teooria isiksuseomaduste ning ideoloogilise enesemääratlemise vahel Eesti näitel

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New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Review of Book 1 of the Handbook of Agricultural Economics

Most of the chapters of the Book 1 report on empirical findings of cross sectional or panel estimates for farm or household models, occasionally of sector models. These models generally conform to profit or utility maximization, often using duality theory. The authors emphasize that heterogeneity of commodities and households should duly be accounted for. They point to the recurrent problems of endogeneity of explanatory variables, call for adequate testing of rational expectations hypothesis, the identification of credit constraints, and imperfections in the price transmission from consumer to producer. The Handbook offers thorough and extensive surveys of literature, more than it gives guidelines or techniques for research. The upcoming Book 2 will expectedly describe the role of agriculture in a wider economic setting, but within this Book 1, because the editors do not include linking sections that cross reference between chapters, it is left to the reader to identify the role and place of the various chapters in the field of agricultural economics and agriculture in general. As agricultural production and technical change are now discussed without reference to biological potentials, feed balances and land balances, it seems that the field has lost much of its interdisciplinary inspiration. This is regrettable.La plupart des chapitres de ce Tome 1 présente les résultats empiriques de modèles spécifiés au niveau de l'exploitation agricole, du ménage, ou parfois du secteur agricole, et estimés à l'aide de données de coupe ou longitudinales. Ces modèles sont en général conformes à la théorie économique. Ils ont pour base la maximisation du profit de la firme ou de l'utilité du consommateur et font souvent appel à la théorie de la dualité. Les auteurs mettent l'accent sur la nécessité de tenir compte du caractère hétérogène des produits ainsi que des ménages. Ils font mention des problèmes associés à l'endogénéïté des variables explicatives et mettent en évidence la nécessité de tester l'hypothèse des anticipations rationnelles, d'identifier les contraintes sur le crédit et les imperfections dans la transmission des prix du consommateur au producteur. Ce « Handbook » offre une revue complète, rigoureuse et détaillée de la littérature, mais n'est pas un guide pratique pour la recherche. Le Tome 2, qui devrait paraître prochainement, décrira probablement le rôle de l'agriculture dans un cadre économique plus vaste. Toutefois, dans ce Tome 1, on cherchera en vain des sections reliant les chapitres en économie agricole avec l'agriculture en général. Etant donné que la production agricole et le progrès technique sont traités sans référence au potentiel biologique, aux bilans fourragers et d'utilisation des terres, il semblerait que la discipline ait perdu une grande part de son ancienne inspiration interdisciplinaire. Ceci est regrettable.Keyzer Michiel. Review of Book 1 of the Handbook of Agricultural Economics. In: Cahiers d'Economie et sociologie rurales, N°65, 4e trimestre 2002. pp. 40-49

The Structure of Applied General Equilibrium Models

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