Interpreting the seasonal cycles of atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations at American Samoa Observatory

We present seven years of atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and CO2 concentration data measured from flask samples collected at American Samoa. These data are unusual, exhibiting higher short-term variability, and seasonal cycles not in phase with other sampling stations. The unique nature of atmospheric data from Samoa has been noted previously from measurements of CO2, methyl chloroform, and ozone. With our O2 data, we observe greater magnitude in the short-term variability, but, in contrast, no clear seasonal pattern to this variability. This we attribute to significant regional sources and sinks existing for O2 in both hemispheres, and a dependence on both the latitudinal and altitudinal origins of air masses. We also hypothesize that some samples exhibit a component of "older" air, demonstrating recirculation of air within the tropics. Our findings could be used to help constrain atmospheric transport models which are not well characterized in tropical regions

Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza

Antiviral treatment offers a fast acting alternative to vaccination; as such it is viewed as a first-line of defence against pandemic influenza in protecting families and households once infection has been detected. In clinical trials, antiviral treatments have been shown to be efficacious in preventing infection, limiting disease and reducing transmission, yet their impact at containing the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm outbreak was limited. To understand this seeming discrepancy, we develop a general and computationally efficient model for studying household-based interventions. This allows us to account for uncertainty in quantities relevant to the 2009 pandemic in a principled way, accounting for the heterogeneity and variability in each epidemiological process modelled. We find that the population-level effects of delayed antiviral treatment and prophylaxis mean that their limited overall impact is quantitatively consistent (at current levels of precision) with their reported clinical efficacy under ideal conditions. Hence, effective control of pandemic influenza with antivirals is critically dependent on early detection and delivery ideally within 24 h.Andrew J. Black, Thomas House, M. J. Keeling and J. V. Ros

Atom-only descriptions of the driven dissipative Dicke model

Funding: F.D. and A.D. acknowledge support from the EPSRC Programme Grant Des-OEQ (EP/P009565/1), and by the EOARD via AFOSR grant number FA9550-18-1-0064. J. K. acknowledges support from SU2P.We investigate how to describe the dissipative spin dynamics of the driven dissipative Dicke model, describing N two-level atoms coupled to a cavity mode, after adiabatic elimination of the cavity mode. To this end, we derive a Redfield master equation which goes beyond the standard secular approximation and large detuning limits. We show that the secular (or rotating wave) approximation and the large detuning approximation both lead to inadequate master equations, that fail to predict the Dicke transition or the damping rates of the atomic dynamics. In contrast, the full Redfield theory correctly predicts the phase transition and the effective atomic damping rates. Our work provides a reliable framework to study the full quantum dynamics of atoms in a multimode cavity, where a quantum description of the full model becomes intractable.PostprintPeer reviewe

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

The Alzheimer's-related amyloid beta peptide is internalised by R28 neuroretinal cells and disrupts the microtubule associated protein 2 (MAP-2)

Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is a common, irreversible blinding condition that leads to the loss of central vision. AMD has a complex aetiology with both genetic as well as environmental risks factors, and share many similarities with Alzheimer's disease. Recent findings have contributed significantly to unravelling its genetic architecture that is yet to be matched by molecular insights. Studies are made more challenging by observations that aged and AMD retinas accumulate the highly pathogenic Alzheimer's-related Amyloid beta (A?) group of peptides, for which there appears to be no clear genetic basis. Analyses of human donor and animal eyes have identified retinal A? aggregates in retinal ganglion cells (RGC), the inner nuclear layer, photoreceptors as well as the retinal pigment epithelium. A? is also a major drusen constituent; found correlated with elevated drusen-load and age, with a propensity to aggregate in retinas of advanced AMD. Despite this evidence, how such a potent driver of neurodegeneration might impair the neuroretina remains incompletely understood, and studies into this important aspect of retinopathy remains limited. In order to address this we exploited R28 rat retinal cells which due to its heterogeneous nature, offers diverse neuroretinal cell-types in which to study the molecular pathology of A?. R28 cells are also unaffected by problems associated with the commonly used RGC-5 immortalised cell-line, thus providing a well-established model in which to study dynamic A? effects at single-cell resolution. Our findings show that R28 cells express key neuronal markers calbindin, protein kinase C and the microtubule associated protein-2 (MAP-2) by confocal immunofluorescence which has not been shown before, but also calretinin which has not been reported previously. For the first time, we reveal that retinal neurons rapidly internalised A?1-42, the most cytotoxic and aggregate-prone amongst the A? family. Furthermore, exposure to physiological amounts of A?1-42 for 24 h correlated with impairment to neuronal MAP-2, a cytoskeletal protein which regulates microtubule dynamics in axons and dendrites. Disruption to MAP-2 was transient, and had recovered by 48 h, although internalised A? persisted as discrete puncta for as long as 72 h. To assess whether A? could realistically localise to living retinas to mediate such effects, we subretinally injected nanomolar levels of oligomeric A?1-42 into wildtype mice. Confocal microscopy revealed the presence of focal A? deposits in RGC, the inner nuclear and the outer plexiform layers 8 days later, recapitulating naturally-occurring patterns of A? aggregation in aged retinas. Our novel findings describe how retinal neurons internalise A? to transiently impair MAP-2 in a hitherto unreported manner. MAP-2 dysfunction is reported in AMD retinas, and is thought to be involved in remodelling and plasticity of post-mitotic neurons. Our insights suggest a molecular pathway by which this could occur in the senescent eye leading to complex diseases such as AMD

Digital database of nose models for nasal prosthesis design generated with 3D morphable face model approach

Designing nasal prostheses can be challenging due to the unpaired nature of the facial feature which precludes the use of mirroring techniques. It can be particularly difficult to accurately replace the missing tissue when preoperative information about the previous anatomy is unavailable or inadequate. In such situations, a database of nose models could act as a helpful starting point for the computer-aided design of a nasal prosthesis. Various digital nose model libraries are described in the literature based upon the facial scans of volunteers or anatomic casts. However, these libraries do not appear to be readily accessible to researchers or clinicians. Therefore, an open-access digital database of nose models has been generated based upon a 3D Morphable Face Model approach. This database comprises a manageable number of 44 simple, well-behaved nose meshes with standardized alignment that are ideal for computer-aided design

In situ measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 reveal an unexpected O2 signal over the tropical Atlantic Ocean

We present the first meridional transects of atmospheric O2 and CO2 over the Atlantic Ocean. We combine these measurements into the tracer atmospheric potential oxygen (APO), which is a measure of the oceanic contribution to atmospheric O2 variations. Our new in situ measurement system, deployed on board a commercial container ship during 2015, performs as well as or better than existing similar measurement systems. The data show small short-term variability (hours to days), a step-change corresponding to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and seasonal cycles that vary with latitude. In contrast to data from the Pacific Ocean and to previous modeling studies, our Atlantic Ocean APO data show no significant bulge in the tropics. This difference cannot be accounted for by interannual variability in the position of the ITCZ or the Atlantic Meridional Mode Index and appears to be a persistent feature of the Atlantic Ocean system. Modeled APO using the TM3 atmospheric transport model does exhibit a significant bulge over the Atlantic and overestimates the interhemispheric gradient in APO over the Atlantic Ocean. These results indicate that either there are inaccuracies in the oceanic flux data products in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean region, or that there are atmospheric transport inaccuracies in the model, or a combination of both. Our shipboard O2 and CO2 measurements are ongoing and will reveal the long-term nature of equatorial APO outgassing over the Atlantic as more data become available

The global carbon budget 1959-2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future

School's Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children.

School children are core groups in the transmission of many common infectious diseases, and are likely to play a key role in the spatial dispersal of disease across multiple scales. However, there is currently little detailed information about the spatial movements of this epidemiologically important age group. To address this knowledge gap, we collaborated with eight secondary schools to conduct a survey of movement patterns of school pupils in primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom. We found evidence of a significant change in behaviour between term time and holidays, with term time weekdays characterised by predominately local movements, and holidays seeing much broader variation in travel patterns. Studies that use mathematical models to examine epidemic transmission and control often use adult commuting data as a proxy for population movements. We show that while these data share some features with the movement patterns reported by school children, there are some crucial differences between the movements of children and adult commuters during both term-time and holidays.AJK was supported by the Medical Research Council (fellowship MR/K021524/1, http://www.mrc.ac.uk/) and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov/about/staff/pages​/epidemiology-population.aspx#rapidd). AJKC was supported by the Alborada Trust (http://www.alboradatrust.com/). KTDE was supported by the NIHR (CDF-2011-04- 019, http://www.nihr.ac.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final version. It was first published by PLOS at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128070#