215 research outputs found

    Environmental drivers of variation in bleaching severity of Acropora species during an extreme thermal anomaly

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    High sea surface temperatures caused global coral bleaching during 2015–2016. During this thermal stress event, we quantified within- and among-species variability in bleaching severity for critical habitat-forming Acropora corals. The objective of this study was to understand the drivers of spatial and species-specific variation in the bleaching susceptibility of these corals, and to evaluate whether bleaching susceptibility under extreme thermal stress was consistent with that observed during less severe bleaching events. We surveyed and mapped Acropora corals at 10 sites (N = 596) around the Lizard Island group on the northern Great Barrier Reef. For each colony, bleaching severity was quantified using a new image analysis technique, and we assessed whether small-scale environmental variables (depth, microhabitat, competition intensity) and species traits (colony morphology, colony size, known symbiont clade association) explained variation in bleaching. Results showed that during severe thermal stress, bleaching of branching corals was linked to microhabitat features, and was more severe at reef edge compared with lagoonal sites. Bleaching severity worsened over a very short time-frame (∼1 week), but did not differ systematically with water depth, competition intensity, or colony size. At our study location, within- and among-species variation in bleaching severity was relatively low compared to the level of variation reported in the literature. More broadly, our results indicate that variability in bleaching susceptibility during extreme thermal stress is not consistent with that observed during previous bleaching events that have ranged in severity among globally dispersed sites, with fewer species escaping bleaching during severe thermal stress. In addition, shaded microhabitats can provide a refuge from bleaching which provides further evidence of the importance of topographic complexity for maintaining the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of coral reefs

    Across-arc geochemical variations in the Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile (34.5- 38.0°S): Constraints on Mantle Wedge and Input Compositions

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    Crustal assimilation (e.g. Hildreth and Moorbath, 1988) and/or subduction erosion (e.g. Stern, 1991; Kay et al., 2005) are believed to control the geochemical variations along the northern portion of the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone. In order to evaluate these hypotheses, we present a comprehensive geochemical data set (major and trace elements and O-Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotopes) from Holocene primarily olivine-bearing volcanic rocks across the arc between 34.5-38.0°S, including volcanic front centers from Tinguiririca to Callaqui, the rear arc centers of Infernillo Volcanic Field, Laguna del Maule and Copahue, and extending 300 km into the backarc. We also present an equivalent data set for Chile Trench sediments outboard of this profile. The volcanic arc (including volcanic front and rear arc) samples primarily range from basalt to andesite/trachyandesite, whereas the backarc rocks are low-silica alkali basalts and trachybasalts. All samples show some characteristic subduction zone trace element enrichments and depletions, but the backarc samples show the least. Backarc basalts have higher Ce/Pb, Nb/U, Nb/Zr, and Ta/Hf, and lower Ba/Nb and Ba/La, consistent with less of a slab-derived component in the backarc and, consequently, lower degrees of mantle melting. The mantle-like δ18O in olivine and plagioclase phenocrysts (volcanic arc = 4.9-5.6 and backarc = 5.0-5.4 per mil) and lack of correlation between δ18O and indices of differentiation and other isotope ratios, argue against significant crustal assimilation. Volcanic arc and backarc samples almost completely overlap in Sr and Nd isotopic composition. High precision (double-spike) Pb isotope ratios are tightly correlated, precluding significant assimilation of older sialic crust but indicating mixing between a South Atlantic Mid Ocean-Ridge Basalt (MORB) source and a slab component derived from subducted sediments and altered oceanic crust. Hf-Nd isotope ratios define separate linear arrays for the volcanic arc and backarc, neither of which trend toward subducting sediment, possibly reflecting a primarily asthenospheric mantle array for the volcanic arc and involvement of enriched Proterozoic lithospheric mantle in the backarc. We propose a quantitative mixing model between a mixed-source, slab-derived melt and a heterogeneous mantle beneath the volcanic arc. The model is consistent with local geodynamic parameters, assuming water-saturated conditions within the slab

    Re-examining the relationship between audiometric profile and tinnitus pitch

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    Objective: We explored the relationship between audiogram shape and tinnitus pitch to answer questions arising from neurophysiological models of tinnitus: ‘Is the dominant tinnitus pitch associated with the edge of hearing loss?’ and ‘Is such a relationship more robust in people with narrow tinnitus bandwidth or steep sloping hearing loss?’ Design: A broken-stick fitting objectively quantified slope, degree and edge of hearing loss up to 16 kHz. Tinnitus pitch was characterized up to 12 kHz. We used correlation and multiple regression analyses for examining relationships with many potentially predictive audiometric variables. Study Sample: 67 people with chronic bilateral tinnitus (43 men and 24 women, aged from 22 to 81 years). Results: In this ample of 67 subjects correlation failed to reveal any relationship between the tinnitus pitch and the edge frequency. The tinnitus pitch generally fell within the area of hearing loss. The pitch of the tinnitus in a subset of subjects with a narrow tinnitus bandwidth (n = 23) was associated with the audiometric edge. Conclusions: Our findings concerning subjects with narrow tinnitus bandwidth suggest that this can be used as an a priori inclusion criterion. A large group of such subjects should be tested to confirm these results

    Have we seen the geneticisation of society? Expectations and evidence

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    Abby Lippman’s geneticization thesis, of the early 1990s, argued and anticipated that with the rise of genetics, increasing areas of social and health related activities would come to be understood and defined in genetic terms leading to major changes in society, medicine and health care. We review the considerable literature on geneticization and consider how the concept stands both theoretically and empirically across scientific, clinical, popular and lay discourse and practice. Social science scholarship indicates that relatively little of the original claim of the geneticization thesis has been realised, highlighting the development of more complex and dynamic accounts of disease in scientific discourse and the complexity of relationships between bioscientific, clinical and lay understandings. This scholarship represents a shift in social science understandings of the processes of sociotechnical change, which have moved from rather simplistic linear models to an appreciation of disease categories as multiply understood. Despite these shifts, we argue that a genetic imaginary persists, which plays a performative role in driving investments in new gene-based developments. Understanding the enduring power of this genetic imaginary and its consequences remains a key task for the social sciences, one which treats ongoing genetic expectations and predictions in a sceptical yet open way

    Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

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    Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

    Distribution of Major Health Risks: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

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    BACKGROUND: Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%–61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1–3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. CONCLUSIONS: Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden

    The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

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    As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe
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