Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.</p

Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

Assessing Historical Fish Community Composition Using Surveys, Historical Collection Data, and Species Distribution Models

Accurate establishment of baseline conditions is critical to successful management and habitat restoration. We demonstrate the ability to robustly estimate historical fish community composition and assess the current status of the urbanized Barton Creek watershed in central Texas, U.S.A. Fish species were surveyed in 2008 and the resulting data compared to three sources of fish occurrence information: (i) historical records from a museum specimen database and literature searches; (ii) a nearly identical survey conducted 15 years earlier; and (iii) a modeled historical community constructed with species distribution models (SDMs). This holistic approach, and especially the application of SDMs, allowed us to discover that the fish community in Barton Creek was more diverse than the historical data and survey methods alone indicated. Sixteen native species with high modeled probability of occurrence within the watershed were not found in the 2008 survey, seven of these were not found in either survey or in any of the historical collection records. Our approach allowed us to more rigorously establish the true baseline for the pre-development fish fauna and then to more accurately assess trends and develop hypotheses regarding factors driving current fish community composition to better inform management decisions and future restoration efforts. Smaller, urbanized freshwater systems, like Barton Creek, typically have a relatively poor historical biodiversity inventory coupled with long histories of alteration, and thus there is a propensity for land managers and researchers to apply inaccurate baseline standards. Our methods provide a way around that limitation by using SDMs derived from larger and richer biodiversity databases of a broader geographic scope. Broadly applied, we propose that this technique has potential to overcome limitations of popular bioassessment metrics (e.g., IBI) to become a versatile and robust management tool for determining status of freshwater biotic communities

Determination of no-observed effect level (NOEL)-biomarker equivalents to interpret biomonitoring data for organophosphorus pesticides in children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Environmental exposure to organophosphorus pesticides has been characterized in various populations, but interpretation of these data from a health risk perspective remains an issue. The current paper proposes biological reference values to help interpret biomonitoring data related to an exposure to organophosphorus pesticides in children for which measurements of alkylphosphate metabolites are available.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Published models describing the kinetics of malathion and chlorpyrifos in humans were used to determine no-observed effect level – biomarker equivalents for methylphosphates and ethylphosphates, respectively. These were expressed in the form of cumulative urinary amounts of alkylphosphates over specified time periods corresponding to an absorbed no-observed effect level dose (derived from a published human exposure dose) and assuming various plausible exposure scenarios. Cumulative amounts of methylphosphate and ethylphosphate metabolites measured in the urine of a group of Quebec children were then compared to the proposed biological reference values.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From a published no-observed effect level dose for malathion and chlorpyrifos, the model predicts corresponding oral biological reference values for methylphosphate and ethylphosphate derivatives of 106 and 52 nmol/kg of body weight, respectively, in 12-h nighttime urine collections, and dermal biological reference values of 40 and 32 nmol/kg of body weight. Out of the 442 available urine samples, only one presented a methylphosphate excretion exceeding the biological reference value established on the basis of a dermal exposure scenario and none of the methylphosphate and ethylphosphate excretion values were above the obtained oral biological reference values, which reflect the main exposure route in children.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study is a first step towards the development of biological guidelines for organophophorus pesticides using a toxicokinetic modeling approach, which can be used to provide a health-based interpretation of biomonitoring data in the general population.</p

Secure and scalable deduplication of horizontally partitioned health data for privacy-preserving distributed statistical computation

Background Techniques have been developed to compute statistics on distributed datasets without revealing private information except the statistical results. However, duplicate records in a distributed dataset may lead to incorrect statistical results. Therefore, to increase the accuracy of the statistical analysis of a distributed dataset, secure deduplication is an important preprocessing step. Methods We designed a secure protocol for the deduplication of horizontally partitioned datasets with deterministic record linkage algorithms. We provided a formal security analysis of the protocol in the presence of semi-honest adversaries. The protocol was implemented and deployed across three microbiology laboratories located in Norway, and we ran experiments on the datasets in which the number of records for each laboratory varied. Experiments were also performed on simulated microbiology datasets and data custodians connected through a local area network. Results The security analysis demonstrated that the protocol protects the privacy of individuals and data custodians under a semi-honest adversarial model. More precisely, the protocol remains secure with the collusion of up to N − 2 corrupt data custodians. The total runtime for the protocol scales linearly with the addition of data custodians and records. One million simulated records distributed across 20 data custodians were deduplicated within 45 s. The experimental results showed that the protocol is more efficient and scalable than previous protocols for the same problem. Conclusions The proposed deduplication protocol is efficient and scalable for practical uses while protecting the privacy of patients and data custodians

Intracellular Spatial Localization Regulated by the Microtubule Network

The commonly recognized mechanisms for spatial regulation inside the cell are membrane-bounded compartmentalization and biochemical association with subcellular organelles. We use computational modeling to investigate another spatial regulation mechanism mediated by the microtubule network in the cell. Our results demonstrate that the mitotic spindle can impose strong sequestration and concentration effects on molecules with binding affinity for microtubules, especially dynein-directed cargoes. The model can recapitulate the essence of three experimental observations on distinct microtubule network morphologies: the sequestration of germ plasm components by the mitotic spindles in the Drosophila syncytial embryo, the asymmetric cell division initiated by the time delay in centrosome maturation in the Drosophila neuroblast, and the diffusional block between neighboring energids in the Drosophila syncytial embryo. Our model thus suggests that the cell cycle-dependent changes in the microtubule network are critical for achieving different spatial regulation effects. The microtubule network provides a spatially extensive docking platform for molecules and gives rise to a “structured cytoplasm”, in contrast to a free and fluid environment

Bioinformatics challenges and potentialities in studying extreme environments

Cold environments are populated by organisms able to contravene deleterious effects of low temperature by diverse adaptive strategies, including the production of ice binding proteins (IBPs) that inhibit the growth of ice crystals inside and outside cells. We describe the properties of such a protein (EfcIBP) identified in the metagenome of an Antarctic biological consortium composed of the ciliate Euplotes focardii and psychrophilic non-cultured bacteria. Recombinant EfcIBP can resist freezing without any conformational damage and is moderately heat stable, with a midpoint temperature of 66.4 degrees C. Tested for its effects on ice, EfcIBP shows an unusual combination of properties not reported in other bacterial IBPs. First, it is one of the best-performing IBPs described to date in the inhibition of ice recrystallization, with effective concentrations in the nanomolar range. Moreover, EfcIBP has thermal hysteresis activity (0.53 degrees C at 50 mu M) and it can stop a crystal from growing when held at a constant temperature within the thermal hysteresis gap. EfcIBP protects purified proteins and bacterial cells from freezing damage when exposed to challenging temperatures. EfcIBP also possesses a potential N-terminal signal sequence for protein transport and a DUF3494 domain that is common to secreted IBPs. These features lead us to hypothesize that the protein is either anchored at the outer cell surface or concentrated around cells to provide survival advantage to the whole cell consortium

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal