Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability

Wildfire is an annual threat for many rural communities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. In some severe events, evacuation is one potential course of action to gain safety from an advancing wildfire. Since most evacuations occur in a personal vehicle along the surrounding road network, the quality of this network is a critical component of a community's vulnerability to wildfire. In this paper, we leverage a high-resolution spatial dataset of wildfire burn probability and mean fireline intensity to conduct a regional-scale screening of wildfire evacuation vulnerability for 696 Oregon and Washington rural towns. We characterize each town’s surrounding road network to construct four simple road metrics related to the potential to quickly and safely evacuate: (1) the number of paved lanes leaving town that intersect a fixed-distance circular buffer; (2) the variety of lane directions available for egress; (3) the travel area that can be reached within a minimum distance while constrained only to movement along the paved road network; and (4) the sum of connected lanes at each intersection for the road network within a fixed-distance circular buffer. We then combine the road metrics with two metrics characterizing fire hazard of the surrounding landscape through which evacuation will occur: (1) burn probability and (2) mean fireline intensity. By combining the road and fire metrics, we create a composite score for ranking all towns by their overall evacuation vulnerability. The most vulnerable towns are those where poor road networks overlap with high fire hazard. Often, these towns are located in remote, forested, mountainous terrain, where topographic relief constrains the available road network and high fuel loads increase wildfire hazard. An interactive map of all road quality and fire hazard metrics is available at https://www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/brief/evacuation.php

Forecasting the ambient solar wind with numerical models. II. An adaptive prediction system for specifying solar wind speed near the Sun

The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement, and optimize numerical models for specifying the large-scale properties of solar wind conditions at the inner boundary of the heliospheric model domain. Here we present an adaptive prediction system that fuses information from in situ measurements of the solar wind into numerical models to better match the global solar wind model solutions near the Sun with prevailing physical conditions in the vicinity of Earth. In this way, we attempt to advance the predictive capabilities of well-established solar wind models for specifying solar wind speed, including the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model. In particular, we use the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model for mapping the solar wind solutions from the near-Sun environment to the vicinity of Earth. In addition, we present the newly developed Tunable HUX (THUX) model, which solves the viscous form of the underlying Burgers equation. We perform a statistical analysis of the resulting solar wind predictions for the period 2006–2015. The proposed prediction scheme improves all the investigated coronal/heliospheric model combinations and produces better estimates of the solar wind state at Earth than our reference baseline model. We discuss why this is the case and conclude that our findings have important implications for future practice in applied space weather research and prediction

Acute Histologic Chorioamnionitis at Term: Nearly Always Noninfectious

Background: The link between histologic acute chorioamnionitis and infection is well established in preterm deliveries, but less well-studied in term pregnancies, where infection is much less common. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a secondary analysis among 195 low-risk women with term pregnancies enrolled in a randomized trial. Histologic and microbiologic evaluation of placentas included anaerobic and aerobic cultures (including mycoplasma/ureaplasma species) as well as PCR. Infection was defined as ≥1,000 cfu of a single known pathogen or a ≥2 log difference in counts for a known pathogen versus other organisms in a mixed culture. Placental membranes were scored and categorized as: no chorioamnionitis, Grade 1 (subchorionitis and patchy acute chorioamnionitis), or Grade 2 (severe, confluent chorioamnionitis). Grade 1 or grade 2 histologic chorioamnionitis was present in 34% of placentas (67/195), but infection was present in only 4% (8/195). Histologic chorioamnionitis was strongly associated with intrapartum fever >38°C [69% (25/36) fever, 26% (42/159) afebrile, P<.0001]. Fever occurred in 18% (n = 36) of women. Most febrile women [92% (33/36)] had received epidural for pain relief, though the association with fever was present with and without epidural. The association remained significant in a logistic regression controlling for potential confounders (OR = 5.8, 95% CI = 2.2,15.0). Histologic chorioamnionitis was also associated with elevated serum levels of interleukin-8 (median = 1.3 pg/mL no histologic chorioamnionitis, 1.5 pg/mL Grade 1, 2.1 pg/mL Grade 2, P = 0.05) and interleukin-6 (median levels = 2.2 pg/mL no chorioamnionitis, 5.3 pg/mL Grade 1, 24.5 pg/mL Grade 2, P = 0.02) at admission for delivery as well as higher admission WBC counts (mean = 12,000cells/mm$^3$ no chorioamnionitis, 13,400cells/mm$^3$ Grade 1, 15,700cells/mm$^3$ Grade 2, P = 0.0005). Conclusion/Significance: Our results suggest histologic chorioamnionitis at term most often results from a noninfectious inflammatory process. It was strongly associated with fever, most of which was related to epidural used for pain relief. A more ‘activated’ maternal immune system at admission was also associated with histologic chorioamnionitis

Safety of the Malaria Vaccine Candidate, RTS,S/AS01E in 5 to 17 Month Old Kenyan and Tanzanian Children

The malaria vaccine candidate, RTS,S/AS01E, showed promising protective efficacy in a trial of Kenyan and Tanzanian children aged 5 to 17 months. Here we report on the vaccine's safety and tolerability. The experimental design was a Phase 2b, two-centre, double-blind (observer- and participant-blind), randomised (1∶1 ratio) controlled trial. Three doses of study or control (rabies) vaccines were administered intramuscularly at 1 month intervals. Solicited adverse events (AEs) were collected for 7 days after each vaccination. There was surveillance and reporting for unsolicited adverse events for 30 days after each vaccination. Serious adverse events (SAEs) were recorded throughout the study period which lasted for 14 months after dose 1 in Korogwe, Tanzania and an average of 18 months post-dose 1 in Kilifi, Kenya. Blood samples for safety monitoring of haematological, renal and hepatic functions were taken at baseline, 3, 10 and 14 months after dose 1. A total of 894 children received RTS,S/AS01E or rabies vaccine between March and August 2007. Overall, children vaccinated with RTS,S/AS01E had fewer SAEs (51/447) than children in the control group (88/447). One SAE episode in a RTS,S/AS01E recipient and nine episodes among eight rabies vaccine recipients met the criteria for severe malaria. Unsolicited AEs were reported in 78% of subjects in the RTS,S/AS01E group and 74% of subjects in the rabies vaccine group. In both vaccine groups, gastroenteritis and pneumonia were the most frequently reported unsolicited AE. Fever was the most frequently observed solicited AE and was recorded after 11% of RTS,S/AS01E doses compared to 31% of doses of rabies vaccine. The candidate vaccine RTS,S/AS01E showed an acceptable safety profile in children living in a malaria-endemic area in East Africa. More data on the safety of RTS,S/AS01E will become available from the Phase 3 programme

Effect Sizes in Experimental Pain Produced by Gender, Genetic Variants and Sensitization Procedures

Background: Various effects on pain have been reported with respect to their statistical significance, but a standardized measure of effect size has been rarely added. Such a measure would ease comparison of the magnitude of the effects across studies, for example the effect of gender on heat pain with the effect of a genetic variant on pressure pain. Methodology/Principal Findings: Effect sizes on pain thresholds to stimuli consisting of heat, cold, blunt pressure, punctuate pressure and electrical current, administered to 125 subjects, were analyzed for 29 common variants in eight human genes reportedly modulating pain, gender and sensitization procedures using capsaicin or menthol. The genotype explained 0–5.9% of the total interindividual variance in pain thresholds to various stimuli and produced mainly small effects (Cohen's d 0–1.8). The largest effect had the TRPA1 rs13255063T/rs11988795G haplotype explaining >5% of the variance in electrical pain thresholds and conferring lower pain sensitivity to homozygous carriers. Gender produced larger effect sizes than most variant alleles (1–14.8% explained variance, Cohen's d 0.2–0.8), with higher pain sensitivity in women than in men. Sensitization by capsaicin or menthol explained up to 63% of the total variance (4.7–62.8%) and produced largest effects according to Cohen's d (0.4–2.6), especially heat sensitization by capsaicin (Cohen's d = 2.6). Conclusions: Sensitization, gender and genetic variants produce effects on pain in the mentioned order of effect sizes. The present report may provide a basis for comparative discussions of factors influencing pain

Contribution of copy number variants to schizophrenia from a genome-wide study of 41,321 subjects

Copy number variants (CNVs) have been strongly implicated in the genetic etiology of schizophrenia (SCZ). However, genome-wide investigation of the contribution of CNV to risk has been hampered by limited sample sizes. We sought to address this obstacle by applying a centralized analysis pipeline to a SCZ cohort of 21,094 cases and 20,227 controls. A global enrichment of CNV burden was observed in cases (OR=1.11, P=5.7×10−15), which persisted after excluding loci implicated in previous studies (OR=1.07, P=1.7 ×10−6). CNV burden was enriched for genes associated with synaptic function (OR = 1.68, P = 2.8 ×10−11) and neurobehavioral phenotypes in mouse (OR = 1.18, P= 7.3 ×10−5). Genome-wide significant evidence was obtained for eight loci, including 1q21.1, 2p16.3 (NRXN1), 3q29, 7q11.2, 15q13.3, distal 16p11.2, proximal 16p11.2 and 22q11.2. Suggestive support was found for eight additional candidate susceptibility and protective loci, which consisted predominantly of CNVs mediated by non-allelic homologous recombination

The role of tenascin-C in tissue injury and tumorigenesis

The extracellular matrix molecule tenascin-C is highly expressed during embryonic development, tissue repair and in pathological situations such as chronic inflammation and cancer. Tenascin-C interacts with several other extracellular matrix molecules and cell-surface receptors, thus affecting tissue architecture, tissue resilience and cell responses. Tenascin-C modulates cell migration, proliferation and cellular signaling through induction of pro-inflammatory cytokines and oncogenic signaling molecules amongst other mechanisms. Given the causal role of inflammation in cancer progression, common mechanisms might be controlled by tenascin-C during both events. Drugs targeting the expression or function of tenascin-C or the tenascin-C protein itself are currently being developed and some drugs have already reached advanced clinical trials. This generates hope that increased knowledge about tenascin-C will further improve management of diseases with high tenascin-C expression such as chronic inflammation, heart failure, artheriosclerosis and cancer

Phylogenetic ctDNA analysis depicts early-stage lung cancer evolution.

The early detection of relapse following primary surgery for non-small-cell lung cancer and the characterization of emerging subclones, which seed metastatic sites, might offer new therapeutic approaches for limiting tumour recurrence. The ability to track the evolutionary dynamics of early-stage lung cancer non-invasively in circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) has not yet been demonstrated. Here we use a tumour-specific phylogenetic approach to profile the ctDNA of the first 100 TRACERx (Tracking Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Evolution Through Therapy (Rx)) study participants, including one patient who was also recruited to the PEACE (Posthumous Evaluation of Advanced Cancer Environment) post-mortem study. We identify independent predictors of ctDNA release and analyse the tumour-volume detection limit. Through blinded profiling of postoperative plasma, we observe evidence of adjuvant chemotherapy resistance and identify patients who are very likely to experience recurrence of their lung cancer. Finally, we show that phylogenetic ctDNA profiling tracks the subclonal nature of lung cancer relapse and metastasis, providing a new approach for ctDNA-driven therapeutic studies

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Genomic Relationships, Novel Loci, and Pleiotropic Mechanisms across Eight Psychiatric Disorders

Genetic influences on psychiatric disorders transcend diagnostic boundaries, suggesting substantial pleiotropy of contributing loci. However, the nature and mechanisms of these pleiotropic effects remain unclear. We performed analyses of 232,964 cases and 494,162 controls from genome-wide studies of anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit/hyper-activity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome. Genetic correlation analyses revealed a meaningful structure within the eight disorders, identifying three groups of inter-related disorders. Meta-analysis across these eight disorders detected 109 loci associated with at least two psychiatric disorders, including 23 loci with pleiotropic effects on four or more disorders and 11 loci with antagonistic effects on multiple disorders. The pleiotropic loci are located within genes that show heightened expression in the brain throughout the lifespan, beginning prenatally in the second trimester, and play prominent roles in neurodevelopmental processes. These findings have important implications for psychiatric nosology, drug development, and risk prediction.Peer reviewe