Dynamically Warped Theory Space and Collective Supersymmetry Breaking

We study deconstructed gauge theories in which a warp factor emerges dynamically and naturally. We present nonsupersymmetric models in which the potential for the link fields has translational invariance, broken only by boundary effects that trigger an exponential profile of vacuum expectation values. The spectrum of physical states deviates exponentially from that of the continuum for large masses; we discuss the effects of such exponential towers on gauge coupling unification. We also present a supersymmetric example in which a warp factor is driven by Fayet-Iliopoulos terms. The model is peculiar in that it possesses a global supersymmetry that remains unbroken despite nonvanishing D-terms. Inclusion of gravity and/or additional messenger fields leads to the collective breaking of supersymmetry and to unusual phenomenology.Comment: 28 pages LaTeX, JHEP format, 7 eps figures (v2: reference added

Sensitivity and Insensitivity of Galaxy Cluster Surveys to New Physics

We study the implications and limitations of galaxy cluster surveys for constraining models of particle physics and gravity beyond the Standard Model. Flux limited cluster counts probe the history of large scale structure formation in the universe, and as such provide useful constraints on cosmological parameters. As a result of uncertainties in some aspects of cluster dynamics, cluster surveys are currently more useful for analyzing physics that would affect the formation of structure than physics that would modify the appearance of clusters. As an example we consider the Lambda-CDM cosmology and dimming mechanisms, such as photon-axion mixing.Comment: 24 pages, 8 eps figures. References added, discussion of scatter in relations between cluster observables lengthene

Maternal Style Selectively Shapes Amygdalar Development and Social Behavior in Rats Genetically Prone to High Anxiety

The early-life environment critically influences neurodevelopment and later psychological health. To elucidate neural and environmental elements that shape emotional behavior, we developed a rat model of individual differences in temperament and environmental reactivity. We selectively bred rats for high vs. low behavioral response to novelty and found that high reactive (bHR) rats display greater risk-taking, impulsivity, and aggression relative to low reactive (bLR) rats, which show high levels of anxiety/depression-like behavior and certain stress vulnerability. The bHR/bLR traits are heritable but prior work revealed bHR/bLR maternal style differences, with bLR dams showing more maternal attention than bHRs. The present study implemented a cross-fostering paradigm to examine the contribution of maternal behavior on bLR offspring’s brain development and emotional behavior. bLR offspring were reared by biological bLR mothers or fostered to a bLR or bHR mother and then evaluated to determine effects on: 1) developmental gene expression in the hippocampus and amygdala; and 2) adult anxiety/depression-like behavior. Genome-wide expression profiling showed that cross-fostering bLR rats to bHR mothers shifted developmental gene expression in the amygdala (but not hippocampus), reduced adult anxiety and enhanced social interaction. Our findings illustrate how an early-life manipulation such as cross-fostering changes the brain’s developmental trajectory and ultimately impacts adult behavior. Moreover, while earlier studies highlighted hippocampal differences contributing to the bHR/bLR phenotypes, our results point to a role of the amygdala as well. Future work will pursue genetic and cellular mechanisms within the amygdala that contribute to bHR/bLR behavior either at baseline or following environmental manipulations

Comparison of the effectiveness of three manual physical therapy techniques in a subgroup of patients with low back pain who satisfy a clinical prediction rule: Study protocol of a randomized clinical trial [NCT00257998]

BACKGROUND: Recently a clinical prediction rule (CPR) has been developed and validated that accurately identifies patients with low back pain (LBP) that are likely to benefit from a lumbo-pelvic thrust manipulation. The studies that developed and validated the rule used the identical manipulation procedure. However, recent evidence suggests that different manual therapy techniques may result similar outcomes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of three different manual therapy techniques in a subgroup of patient with low back pain that satisfy the CPR. METHODS/DESIGN: Consecutive patients with LBP referred to physical therapy clinics in one of four geographical locations who satisfy the CPR will be invited to participate in this randomized clinical trial. Subjects who agree to participate will undergo a standard evaluation and complete a number of patient self-report questionnaires including the Oswestry Disability Index (OSW), which will serve as the primary outcome measure. Following the baseline examination patients will be randomly assigned to receive the lumbopelvic manipulation used in the development of the CPR, an alternative lumbar manipulation technique, or non-thrust lumbar mobilization technique for the first 2 visits. Beginning on visit 3, all 3 groups will receive an identical standard exercise program for 3 visits (visits 3,4,5). Outcomes of interest will be captured by a therapist blind to group assignment at 1 week (3(rd )visit), 4 weeks (6(th )visit) and at a 6-month follow-up. The primary aim of the study will be tested with analysis of variance (ANOVA) using the change in OSW score from baseline to 4-weeks (OSW(Baseline )– OSW(4-weeks)) as the dependent variable. The independent variable will be treatment with three levels (lumbo-pelvic manipulation, alternative lumbar manipulation, lumbar mobilization). DISCUSSION: This trial will be the first to investigate the effectiveness of various manual therapy techniques for patients with LBP who satisfy a CPR

A longitudinal survey of African animal trypanosomiasis in domestic cattle on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria:prevalence, distribution and risk factors

BACKGROUND: Trypanosomiasis is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and a major constraint to the rural economy. The Jos Plateau, Nigeria was free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and the absence of animal trypanosomiasis attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to inhabit the plateau. The Jos Plateau now plays a significant role in the national cattle industry, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd and supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. However, during the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. METHODS: In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution bovine trypanosomiasis. Logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for disease. RESULTS: The prevalence of bovine trypanosomiasis (Trypanosoma brucei brucei, Trypanosoma congolense savannah, Trypanosoma vivax) across the Jos Plateau was found to be high at 46.8% (39.0 – 54.5%) and significant, seasonal variation was observed between the dry season and the end of the wet season. T. b. brucei was observed at a prevalence of 3.2% (1% – 5.5%); T. congolense at 27.7% (21.8% - 33.6%) and T. vivax at 26.7% (18.2% - 35.3%). High individual variation was observed in trypanosomiasis prevalence between individual villages on the Plateau, ranging from 8.8% to 95.6%. Altitude was found to be a significant risk factor for trypanosomiasis whilst migration also influenced risk for animal trypanosomiasis. CONCLUSIONS: Trypanosomiasis is now endemic on the Jos Plateau showing high prevalence in cattle and is influenced by seasonality, altitude and migration practices. Attempts to successfully control animal trypanosomiasis on the Plateau will need to take into account the large variability in trypanosomiasis infection rates between villages, the influence of land use, and husbandry and management practices of the pastoralists, all of which affect the epidemiology of the disease

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Elevated basal serum tryptase identifies a multisystem disorder associated with increased TPSAB1 copy number

Elevated basal serum tryptase levels are present in 4-6% of the general population, but the cause and relevance of such increases are unknown. Previously, we described subjects with dominantly inherited elevated basal serum tryptase levels associated with multisystem complaints including cutaneous flushing and pruritus, dysautonomia, functional gastrointestinal symptoms, chronic pain, and connective tissue abnormalities, including joint hypermobility. Here we report the identification of germline duplications and triplications in the TPSAB1 gene encoding α-tryptase that segregate with inherited increases in basal serum tryptase levels in 35 families presenting with associated multisystem complaints. Individuals harboring alleles encoding three copies of α-tryptase had higher basal serum levels of tryptase and were more symptomatic than those with alleles encoding two copies, suggesting a gene-dose effect. Further, we found in two additional cohorts (172 individuals) that elevated basal serum tryptase levels were exclusively associated with duplication of α-tryptase-encoding sequence in TPSAB1, and affected individuals reported symptom complexes seen in our initial familial cohort. Thus, our findings link duplications in TPSAB1 with irritable bowel syndrome, cutaneous complaints, connective tissue abnormalities, and dysautonomia

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for psychological distress in pregnancy: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Clinically significant psychological distress in pregnancy is common, with epidemiological research suggesting that between 15 and 25 % of pregnant women experience elevated symptoms of stress, anxiety, and depression. Untreated psychological distress in pregnancy is associated with poor obstetrical outcomes, changes in maternal physiology, elevated incidence of child physical and psychological disorders, and is predictive of maternal postpartum mood disorders. Despite the wide-ranging impact of antenatal psychological distress on mothers and their children, there is a gap in our knowledge about the most effective treatments that are available for psychological distress experienced in pregnancy. Additionally, no trials have focused on potential physiological changes that may occur as a result of receiving mindfulness training in pregnancy. The proposed trial will determine the effectiveness of an 8-week modified Mindfulness-based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) intervention delivered during pregnancy. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial (RCT) design with repeated measures will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of MBCT to treat psychological distress in pregnancy. A sample of 60 consenting pregnant women aged 18 years and above will be enrolled and randomized to the experimental (MBCT) or control (treatment as usual) condition. Primary (e.g., symptoms of stress, depression, and anxiety), secondary (cortisol, blood pressure (BP), heart rate variability (HRV), and sleep) and other outcome data (e.g., psychological diagnoses) will be collected via a combination of laboratory visits and at-home assessments from both groups at baseline (T(1)), immediately following the intervention (T(2)), and at 3 months postpartum (T(3)). Descriptive statistics will be used to describe sample characteristics. Data will be analyzed using an intention-to-treat approach. Hierarchical linear models will be used to test intervention effects on primary and secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION: The trial is expected to improve knowledge about evidence-based treatments for psychological distress experienced in pregnancy and to evaluate the potential impact of mindfulness-based interventions on maternal physiology. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02214732, registered on 7 August 2014. Protocol Version 2.0., 5 September 2016. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1601-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages