Warming and CO2 Enhance Arctic Heterotrophic Microbial Activity

Ocean acidification and warming are two main consequences of climate change that can directly affect biological and ecosystem processes in marine habitats. The Arctic Ocean is the region of the world experiencing climate change at the steepest rate compared with other latitudes. Since marine planktonic microorganisms play a key role in the biogeochemical cycles in the ocean it is crucial to simultaneously evaluate the effect of warming and increasing CO2 on marine microbial communities. In 20 L experimental microcosms filled with water from a high-Arctic fjord (Svalbard), we examined changes in phototrophic and heterotrophic microbial abundances and processes [bacterial production (BP) and mortality], and viral activity (lytic and lysogenic) in relation to warming and elevated CO2. The summer microbial plankton community living at 1.4°C in situ temperature, was exposed to increased CO2 concentrations (135–2,318 μatm) in three controlled temperature treatments (1, 6, and 10°C) at the UNIS installations in Longyearbyen (Svalbard), in summer 2010. Results showed that chlorophyll a concentration decreased at increasing temperatures, while BP significantly increased with pCO2 at 6 and 10°C. Lytic viral production was not affected by changes in pCO2 and temperature, while lysogeny increased significantly at increasing levels of pCO2, especially at 10°C (R2 = 0.858, p = 0.02). Moreover, protistan grazing rates showed a positive interaction between pCO2 and temperature. The averaged percentage of bacteria grazed per day was higher (19.56 ± 2.77% d-1) than the averaged percentage of lysed bacteria by virus (7.18 ± 1.50% d-1) for all treatments. Furthermore, the relationship among microbial abundances and processes showed that BP was significantly related to phototrophic pico/nanoflagellate abundance in the 1°C and the 6°C treatments, and BP triggered viral activity, mainly lysogeny at 6 and 10°C, while bacterial mortality rates was significantly related to bacterial abundances at 6°C. Consequently, our experimental results suggested that future increases in water temperature and pCO2 in Arctic waters will produce a decrease of phytoplankton biomass, enhancement of BP and changes in the carbon fluxes within the microbial food web. All these heterotrophic processes will contribute to weakening the CO2 sink capacity of the Arctic plankton community.En prens

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature

Review article: How does glacier discharge affect marine biogeochemistry and primary production in the Arctic?

Freshwater discharge from glaciers is increasing across the Arctic in response to anthropogenic climate change, which raises questions about the potential downstream effects in the marine environment. Whilst a combination of long-term monitoring programmes and intensive Arctic field campaigns have improved our knowledge of glacier-ocean interactions in recent years, especially with respect to fjord/ocean circulation, there are extensive knowledge gaps concerning how glaciers affect marine biogeochemistry and productivity. Following two cross-cutting disciplinary International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) workshops addressing the importance of glaciers for the marine ecosystem, here we review the state of the art concerning how freshwater discharge affects the marine environment with a specific focus on marine biogeochemistry and biological productivity. Using a series of Arctic case studies (Nuup Kangerlua/Godthäbsfjord, Kongsfjorden, Kangerluarsuup Sermia/Bowdoin Fjord, Young Sound and Sermilik Fjord), the interconnected effects of freshwater discharge on fjord-shelf exchange, nutrient availability, the carbonate system, the carbon cycle and the microbial food web are investigated. Key findings are that whether the effect of glacier discharge on marine primary production is positive or negative is highly dependent on a combination of factors. These include glacier type (marine- or land-terminating), fjord-glacier geometry and the limiting resource(s) for phytoplankton growth in a specific spatio-temporal region (light, macronutrients or micronutrients). Arctic glacier fjords therefore often exhibit distinct discharge-productivity relationships, and multiple case-studies must be considered in order to understand the net effects of glacier discharge on Arctic marine ecosystems

Review Article: How does glacier discharge affect marine biogeochemistry and primary production in the Arctic?

Freshwater discharge from glaciers is increasing across the Arctic in response to anthropogenic climate change, which raises questions about the potential downstream effects in the marine environment. Whilst a combination of long-term monitoring programmes and intensive Arctic field campaigns have improved our knowledge of glacier–ocean interactions in recent years, especially with respect to fjord/ocean circulation, there are extensive knowledge gaps concerning how glaciers affect marine biogeochemistry and productivity. Following two cross-cutting disciplinary International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) workshops addressing the importance of glaciers for the marine ecosystem, here we review the state of the art concerning how freshwater discharge affects the marine environment with a specific focus on marine biogeochemistry and biological productivity. Using a series of Arctic case studies (Nuup Kangerlua/Godthåbsfjord, Kongsfjorden, Kangerluarsuup Sermia/Bowdoin Fjord, Young Sound and Sermilik Fjord), the interconnected effects of freshwater discharge on fjord–shelf exchange, nutrient availability, the carbonate system, the carbon cycle and the microbial food web are investigated. Key findings are that whether the effect of glacier discharge on marine primary production is positive or negative is highly dependent on a combination of factors. These include glacier type (marine- or land-terminating), fjord–glacier geometry and the limiting resource(s) for phytoplankton growth in a specific spatio-temporal region (light, macronutrients or micronutrients). Arctic glacier fjords therefore often exhibit distinct discharge–productivity relationships, and multiple case-studies must be considered in order to understand the net effects of glacier discharge on Arctic marine ecosystems

Temperature dependence of plankton community metabolism in the subtropical and tropical oceans

Here we assess the temperature dependence of the metabolic rates (gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and the ratio GPP/CR) of oceanic plankton communities. We compile data from 133 stations of the Malaspina 2010 Expedition, distributed among the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. We used the in vitro technique to measured metabolic rates during 24 h incubations at three different sampled depths: surface, 20%, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation measured at surface. We also measured the % of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) penetrating at surface waters. GPP and CR rates increased with warming, albeit different responses were observed for each sampled depth. The overall GPP/CR ratio declined with warming. Higher activation energies (Ea) were derived for both processes (GPPChla = 0.97; CRChla = 1.26; CRHPA = 0.95 eV) compared to those previously reported. The Indian Ocean showed the highest Ea (GPPChla = 1.70; CRChla = 1.48; CRHPA = 0.57 eV), while the Atlantic Ocean showed the lowest (GPPChla = 0.86; CRChla = 0.77; CRHPA = 0.13 eV). We believe that the difference between previous assessments and the ones presented here can be explained by the overrepresentation of Atlantic communities in the previous data sets. We found that UVB radiation also affects the temperature dependence of surface GPP, which decreased rather than increased under high levels of UVB. Ocean warming, which causes stratification and oligotrophication of the subtropical and tropical oceans, may lead to reduced surface GPP as a result of increased penetration of UVB radiation.En prens

Strengthening confidence in climate change impact science

Mary O'Connor et al.© 2014 The Authors. Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to high confidence). Approximately 35% of analyses were not associated with clearly stated prior expectations and 65% of analyses did not test putative non-climate drivers of biological change. Among the highest-scoring studies, 91% tested prior expectations, 86% formulated expectations for alternative drivers but only 63% statistically tested them. Higher confidence scores observed in studies that did not detect a change or tracked multiple species suggest publication bias favouring impact studies that are consistent with climate change. The number of time series showing climate impacts was a poor predictor of average confidence scores for a given group, reinforcing that vote-counting methodology is not appropriate for determining overall confidence in inferences. Main conclusions: Climate impacts research is expected to attribute biological change to climate change with measurable confidence. Studies with long-term, high-resolution data, appropriate statistics and tests of alternative drivers earn higher Cindex scores, suggesting these should be given greater weight in impact assessments. Together with our proposed framework, the results of our Cindex analysis indicate how the science of detecting and attributing biological impacts to climate change can be strengthened through the use of evidence-based prior expectations and thorough statistical analyses, even when data are limited, maximizing the impact of the diverse and growing climate change ecology literature.We acknowledge financial support from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) to A.J.R. and E.S.P.Peer Reviewe

Interactive effect of temperature and CO2 increase in Arctic phytoplankton

An experiment was performed in order to analyze the effects of the increase in water temperature and CO2 partial pressure expected for the end of this century in a present phytoplankton community inhabiting the Arctic Ocean. We analyzed both factors acting independently and together, to test possible interactions between them. The arctic planktonic community was incubated under six different treatments combining three experimental temperatures (1, 6, and 10°C) with two different CO2 levels of 380 or 1000 ppm, at the UNIS installations in Longyearbyen (Svalbard), in summer 2010. Under warmer temperatures, a decrease in chlorophyll a concentration, biovolume and primary production was found, together with a shift in community structure toward a dominance of smaller cells (nano-sized). Effects of increased pCO2 were more modest, and although interactions were weak, our results suggest antagonistic interactive effects amongst increased temperature and CO2 levels, as elevated CO2 compensated partially the decrease in phytoplankton biomass induced by temperature in some groups. Interactions between the two stressors were generally weak, but elevated CO2 was observed to lead to a steeper decline in primary production with warming. Our results also suggest that future increases in water temperature and pCO2 would lead to a decrease in the community chl a concentration and biomass in the Arctic phytoplankton communities examined, leading to communities dominated by smaller nano-phytoplankton groups, with important consequences for the flow of carbon and food web dynamics.This study was supported by the project Arctic Tipping Points (ATP, contract # 226248) from the European Union. Alexandra Coello-Camba was supported by a grant BES-2007-15193 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.Peer reviewedPeer Reviewe

Effects of ocean acidification and warming on sperm activity and early life stages of the mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis)

Larval stages are among those most vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). Projected atmospheric CO> levels for the end of this century may lead to negative impacts on communities dominated by calcifying taxa with planktonic life stages. We exposed Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) sperm and early life stages to pHT levels of 8.0 (current pH) and 7.6 (2100 level) by manipulating pCO2 level (380 and 1000 ppm). Sperm activity was examined at ambient temperatures (16-17 °C) using individual males as replicates. We also assessed the effects of temperature (ambient and ≈20 °C) and pH on larval size, survival, respiration and calcification of late trochophore/early D-veliger stages using a cross-factorial design. Increased pCO2 had a negative effect on the percentage of motile sperm (mean response ratio ̄R = 71%) and sperm swimming speed (̄R = 74%), possibly indicating reduced fertilization capacity of sperm in low concentrations. Increased temperature had a more prominent effect on larval stages than pCO2, reducing performance (̄RSize = 90% and ̄RSurvival = 70%) and increasing energy demand (̄RRespiration = 429%). We observed no significant interactions between pCO2 and temperature. Our results suggest that increasing temperature might have a larger impact on very early larval stages of M. galloprovincialis than OA at levels predicted for the end of the century. © 2013 by the authors.Peer Reviewe

Demystifying Models: Answers to Ten Common Questions That Ecologists Have About Earth System Models

Every 2 years the University of Hawaii hosts the Ecological Dissertations in the Aquatic Sciences (EcoDAS) symposium, an ASLO and NSF-funded workshop designed to foster interdisciplinary collaborations among early career aquatic ecologists. During the EcoDAS symposium in 2014, many of the discussions revolved around a growing interest in using global climate models for making projections about how ecosystems and organisms will respond to future changes. However, many EcoDAS participants did not feel they had the required knowledge to employ climate models or participate in a climate modeling study.Peer Reviewe