Observational evidence for aerosols increasing upper tropospheric humidity

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the largest source of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the global climate. A phenomenon not included in the estimates of the total net forcing is the potential increase in upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) by anthropogenic aerosols via changes in the microphysics of deep convection. Using remote sensing data over the ocean east of China in summer, we show that increased aerosol loads are associated with an UTH increase of 2.2 +/- 1.5 in units of relative humidity. We show that humidification of aerosols or other meteorological covariation is very unlikely to be the cause of this result, indicating relevance for the global climate. In tropical moist air such an UTH increase leads to a regional radiative effect of 0.5 +/- 0.4 W m(-2). We conclude that the effect of aerosols on UTH should be included in future studies of anthropogenic climate change and climate sensitivity.Peer reviewe

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Intercalibrating Microwave Satellite Observations for Monitoring Long-Term Variations in Upper- and Midtropospheric Water Vapor

Abstract This paper analyzes the growing archive of 183-GHz water vapor absorption band measurements from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit B (AMSU-B) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on board polar-orbiting satellites and document adjustments necessary to use the data for long-term climate monitoring. The water vapor channels located at 183.31 ± 1 GHz and 183.31 ± 3 GHz are sensitive to upper- and midtropospheric relative humidity and less prone to the clear-sky sampling bias than infrared measurements, making them a valuable but underutilized source of information on free-tropospheric water vapor. A method for the limb correction of the satellite viewing angle based upon a simplified model of radiative transfer is introduced to remove the scan angle dependence of the radiances. Biases due to the difference in local observation time between satellites and spurious trends associated with satellite orbital drift are then diagnosed and adjusted for using synthetic radiative simulations based on the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). The adjusted, cloud-filtered, and limb-corrected brightness temperatures are then intercalibrated using zonal-mean brightness temperature differences. It is found that these correction procedures significantly improve consistency and quantitative agreement between microwave radiometric satellite observations that can be used to monitor upper- and midtropospheric water vapor. The resulting radiances are converted to estimates of the deep-layer-mean upper- and midtropospheric relative humidity, and can be used to evaluate trends in upper-tropospheric relative humidity from reanalysis datasets and coupled ocean–atmosphere models

A strong ice cloud event as seen by a microwave satellite sensor: Simulations and Observations

In this article, brightness temperatures observed by channels of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) instrument are compared to those simulated by a radiative transfer model, which can take into account the multiple scattering due to ice particles by using a discrete ordinate iterative solution method. The input fields, namely, the pressure, temperature, humidity, and cloud water content are taken from the short range forecast from the Met Office mesoscale model (UKMES). The comparison was made for a case study on the 25 January 2002 when a frontal system associated with significant cloud was present over the UK. It is demonstrated that liquid clouds have maximum impact on channel 16 of AMSU whereas ice clouds have maximum impact on channel 20. The main uncertainty for simulating microwave radiances is the assumptions about microphysical properties, such as size distribution, shape and orientation of the cloud particles, which are not known in the mesoscale model. The article examines the impact of these parameters on the cloud signal. The polarisation signal due to oriented ice particles at these frequencies is also discussed

Climate Data Records from Meteosat First Generation Part I: Simulation of Accurate Top-of-Atmosphere Spectral Radiance over Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites for the Retrieval of the In-Flight Visible Spectral Response

Meteosat First-Generation satellites have acquired more than 30 years of observations that could potentially be used for the generation of a Climate Data Record. The availability of harmonized and accurate a Fundamental Climate Data Record is a prerequisite to such generation. Meteosat Visible and Infrared Imager radiometers suffer from inaccurate pre-launch spectral function characterization and spectral ageing constitutes a serious limitation to achieve such prerequisite. A new method was developed for the retrieval of the pre-launch instrument spectral function and its ageing. This recovery method relies on accurately simulated top-of-atmosphere spectral radiances matching observed digital count values. This paper describes how these spectral radiances are simulated over pseudo-invariant targets such as open ocean, deep convective clouds and bright desert surface. The radiative properties of these targets are described with a limited number of parameters of known uncertainty. Typically, a single top-of-atmosphere radiance spectrum can be simulated with an estimated uncertainty of about 5%. The independent evaluation of the simulated radiance accuracy is also addressed in this paper. It includes two aspects: the comparison with narrow-band well-calibrated radiometers and a spectral consistency analysis using SEVIRI/HRVIS band on board Meteosat Second Generation which was accurately characterized pre-launch. On average, the accuracy of these simulated spectral radiances is estimated to be about ±2%

Trends in Upper-Tropospheric Humidity: Expansion of the Subtropical Dry Zones?

Subtropical dry zones, located in the Hadley cells' subsidence regions, strongly influence regional climate as well as outgoing longwave radiation. Changes in these dry zones could have significant impact on surface climate as well as on the atmospheric energy budget. This study investigates the behavior of upper-tropospheric dry zones in a changing climate, using the variable upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH), calculated from climate model experiment output as well as from radiances measured with satellite-based sensors. The global UTH distribution shows that dry zones form a belt in the subtropical winter hemisphere. In the summer hemisphere they concentrate over the eastern ocean basins, where the descent regions of the subtropical anticyclones are located. Recent studies with model and satellite data have found tendencies of increasing dryness at the poleward edges of the subtropical subsidence zones. However, UTH calculated from climate simulations with 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows these tendencies only for parts of the winter-hemispheric dry belts. In the summer hemisphere, even though differences exist between the simulations, UTH is increasing in most dry zones, particularly in the South and North Pacific Ocean. None of the summer dry zones is expanding in these simulations. Upper-tropospheric dry zones estimated from observational data do not show any robust signs of change since 1979. Apart from a weak drying tendency at the poleward edge of the southern winter-hemispheric dry belt in infrared measurements, nothing indicates that the subtropical dry belts have expanded poleward

Opportunistic Constant Target Matching—A New Method for Satellite Intercalibration

Opportunistic constant target matching is a new method for satellite intercalibration. It solves a long-standing issue with the traditional simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) method, namely, that it typically provides only data points with cold brightness temperatures for humidity sounding instruments on sun-synchronous satellites. In the new method, a geostationary infrared sensor (SEVIRI) is used to select constant target matches for two different microwave sensors (MHS on NOAA 18 and Metop A). We discuss the main assumptions and limitations of the method and explore its statistical properties with a simple Monte Carlo simulation. The method was tested in a simple case study with real observations for this combination of satellites for MHS Channel 3 at 183 ± 1 GHz, the upper tropospheric humidity channel. For the studied 3-month test period, real observations are found to behave consistently with the simulations, increasing our confidence that the method can be a valuable tool for intercalibration efforts. For the selected case study, the new method confirms that the bias between NOAA 18 and Metop A MHS Channel 3 is very small, with absolute value below 0.05 K

Global changes in water vapor 1979‐2020

Global-scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite and ground-based observations, a reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled and atmosphere-only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global mean column integrated water vapor increased by 1%/decade during 1988-2014 in observations and atmosphere-only simulations. However, coupled simulations overestimate water vapor trends and this is partly explained by past studies showing that internal climate variability suppressed observed warming in this period. Decreases in low-altitude tropical water vapor in ERA5 and ground-based observations before around 1993 are considered suspect based on inconsistency with simulations and increased column integrated water vapor in microwave satellite data since 1979. AIRS satellite data does not capture the increased tropospheric water vapor since 2002 shown by other satellite, reanalysis and model products. However, global water vapor responses to interannual surface temperature variability is consistent across datasets with increases of ∼4-5% near the surface and 10-15% at 300 hPa for each 1◦C increase in global surface temperature. Global water vapor responses are explained by thermodynamic amplification of upper tropospheric temperature changes and the Clausius Clapeyron temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure that are dominated by the tropical ocean responses. Upper tropospheric moistening is larger in climate model simulations with greater upper tropospheric warming

Current changes in tropical precipitation

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations