The West African Monsoon Onset: a concise comparison of definitions

The onset of the West African Monsoon (WAM) marks a vital time for local and regional stakeholders. Whilst the seasonal progression of monsoon winds and the related migration of precipitation from the Guinea Coast towards the Soudan/Sahel is apparent, there exist contrasting man-made definitions of what the WAM onset means. Broadly speaking, onset can be analyzed regionally, locally or over a designated intermediate scale. There are at least eighteen distinct definitions of the WAM onset in publication with little work done on comparing observed onset from different definitions or comparing onset realizations across different datasets and resolutions. Here, nine definitions have been calculated using multiple datasets of different metrics at different resolution. It is found that mean regional onset dates are consistent across multiple datasets and different definitions. There is low inter-annual variability in regional onset suggesting that regional seasonal forecasting of the onset provides few benefits over climatology. In contrast, local onsets show high spatial, inter-annual and inter-definition variability. Furthermore it is found that there is little correlation between local onset dates and regional onset dates across West Africa implying a disharmony between regional measures of onset and the experience on a local scale. The results of this study show that evaluation of seasonal monsoon onset forecasts is far from straightforward. Given a seasonal forecasting model, it is possible to simultaneously have a good and bad prediction of monsoon onset simply through selection of onset definition and observational dataset used for comparison

The apparent British sea slope is caused by systematic errors in the levelling-based vertical datum

The spirit-levelling–based British vertical datum (Ordnance Datum Newlyn) implies a south–north apparent slope in mean sea level of up to 53 mm deg–1 latitude, due to the datum falling on heading northwards. Although this apparent slope has been investigated since the 1960s, explanations of its origin have remained inconclusive. It has also been suggested that, rather than a slope, the British vertical datum includes a step of about 240 mm affecting all sites north of about 53°N. In either case, the British vertical datum may be of limited use for any study requiring accurate heights or changes in heights, such as testing geoid models, groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction, the calibration and validation of satellite-based digital terrain models, and the unification of vertical datums internationally. Within the last decade, however, based on an apparent reduction in the slope to only −12 mm deg–1 latitude with respect to recent geoid models, it has been claimed that the British vertical datum does provide a physically meaningful surface for use in scientific applications.In this paper, we reinvestigate the presence of apparent south–north sea slopes around Britain and reported slopes in the vertical datum, using the EGM2008 global gravitational model, together with mean sea level and GPS data from British tide gauges, GPS ellipsoidal heights of 178 fundamental benchmarks across mainland Britain, and vertical deflection observations at 192 stations. We demonstrate a south–north slope in the British vertical datum of −(20–25) mm deg–1 latitude with respect to both mean sea level (corrected for the ocean's mean dynamic topography and the inverse barometer response to atmospheric pressure loading) and the EGM2008 quasigeoid model, while EGM2008 is shown to exhibit a negligible slope of (2 ± 4) mm deg–1 with respect to mean sea level. It is clear, therefore, that the slope can only arise from systematic errors in the levelling, although we are unable to isolate their exact origin. Using an offset detection method based on a penalized likelihood maximization using the Schwarz Information Criterion, we do not detect a step in the vertical datum affecting all sites north of 53°N, but do identify regional distortions that we attribute to the inhomogeneity in both the levelling data used and the least squares adjustment procedures used to realize the datum. We conclude that the British vertical datum remains unsuitable for scientific purposes

Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Application to Geodetic Time Series Analysis

The time evolution of geophysical phenomena can be characterised by stochastic time series. The stochastic nature of the signal stems from the geophysical phenomena involved and any noise, which may be due to, e.g., un-modelled effects or measurement errors. Until the 1990's, it was usually assumed that white noise could fully characterise this noise. However, this was demonstrated to be not the case and it was proven that this assumption leads to underestimated uncertainties of the geophysical parameters inferred from the geodetic time series. Therefore, in order to fully quantify all the uncertainties as robustly as possible, it is imperative to estimate not only the deterministic but also the stochastic parameters of the time series. In this regard, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method can provide a sample of the distribution function of all parameters, including those regarding the noise, e.g., spectral index and amplitudes. After presenting the MCMC method and its implementation in our MCMC software we apply it to synthetic and real time series and perform a cross-evaluation using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) as implemented in the CATS software. Several examples as to how the MCMC method performs as a parameter estimation method for geodetic time series are given in this chapter. These include the applications to GPS position time series, superconducting gravity time series and monthly mean sea level (MSL) records, which all show very different stochastic properties. The impact of the estimated parameter uncertainties on sub-sequentially derived products is briefly demonstrated for the case of plate motion models. Finally, the MCMC results for weekly downsampled versions of the benchmark synthetic GNSS time series as provided in Chapter 2 are presented separately in an appendix

Joint segmentation of multiple GPS coordinate serie

International audienceFor the first time, a joint general segmentation procedure of multiple GPS coordinate series is proposed fornearby stations. It allows simultaneously estimating station-specific trends, seasonal signals and a common groundmotion signal between series from adjacent stations. An extension of the model and the estimation procedure, which isan iterative procedure, proposed following Picard et al. (2011) and Bertin et al. (2014) is considered in order to takeinto account for the specificities of the GPS data. The tested approach has been shown to be efficient in providingmeaningful offsets and is found to be a relevant method for avoiding segmenting the true physical signal.Pour la première fois, une procédure de segmentation multiple de séries de coordonnées est proposée pourdes stations GPS géographiquement proches. Elle permet d’estimer simultanément des vitesses de déplacements etdes signaux saisonniers spécifiques à chaque série tout en déterminant un signal de déplacement commun à toutesles stations. Une extension du modèle proposé par Picard et al. (2011) et Bertin et al. (2014) est considérée afin deprendre en compte les différentes caractéristiques liées aux données GPS ainsi que la procédure d’estimation, procédureitérative. Les résultats obtenus sur quatre ensembles de séries réelles GPS sont très pertinents d’autant plus que laméthode permet de ne pas segmenter le signal physique en identifiant des ruptures liées au mouvement réel du so