Equilibration of the terrestrial water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles

Recent advances in biologically based ecosystem models of the coupled terrestrial, hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles have provided new perspectives on the terrestrial biosphere’s behavior globally, over a range of time scales. We used the terrestrial ecosystem model Century to examine relationships between carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics. The model, run to a quasi-steady-state, shows strong correlations between carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes that lead to equilibration of wateryenergy and nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity. This occurs because as the water flux increases, the potentials for carbon uptake (photosynthesis), and inputs and losses of nitrogen, all increase. As the flux of carbon increases, the amount of nitrogen that can be captured into organic matter and then recycled also increases. Because most plant-available nitrogen is derived from internal recycling, this latter process is critical to sustaining high productivity in environments where water and energy are plentiful. At steady-state, wateryenergy and nitrogen limitation ‘‘equilibrate,’’ but because the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles have different response times, inclusion of nitrogen cycling into ecosystem models adds behavior at longer time scales than in purely biophysical models. The tight correlations among nitrogen fluxes with evapotranspiration implies that either climate change or changes to nitrogen inputs (from fertilization or air pollution) will have large and long-lived effects on both productivity and nitrogen losses through hydrological and trace gas pathways. Comprehensive analyses of the role of ecosystems in the carbon cycle must consider mechanisms that arise from the interaction of the hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles in ecosystems

Modeling soil organic carbon change in croplands of China

Using 1990 conditions, we modeled carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) biogeochemical cycles in croplands of China (and, for comparison, the United States) to estimate the annual soil organic-carbon (SOC) balance for all cropland. Overall, we estimate that China\u27s croplands lost 1.6% of their SOC (to a depth of 0.3 m) in 1990, and that U.S. cropland lost 0.1%. A key element in this difference was that ∼25% of aboveground crop residue in China was returned to the soil, compared to ∼90% in the United States. In China, SOC losses were greatest in the northeast (∼103 kg C·ha–1·yr–1), and were generally smaller (\u3c0.5 × 103 kg C·ha–1·yr–1) in regions with a longer cultivation history. Some regions showed SOC gains, generally \u3c103 kg C·ha–1·yr–1. Reduced organic-matter input to China\u27s cropland soils, and lower overall SOC levels in those soils, led to lower levels of N mineralization in the simulations, consistent with higher rates of synthetic-fertilizer application in China. C and N cycles are closely linked to soil fertility, crop yield, and non-point-source environmental pollution

Climatic, edaphic, and biotic controls over storage and turnover of carbon in soils

Soil carbon, a major component of the global carbon inventory, has significant potential for change with changing climate and human land use. We applied the Century ecosystem model to a series of forest and grassland sites distributed globally to examine large-scale controls over soil carbon. Key site-specific parameters influencing soil carbon dynamics are soil texture and foliar lignin content; accordingly, we perturbed these variables at each site to establish a range of carbon concentrations and turnover times. We examined the simulated soil carbon stores, turnover times, and C:N ratios for correlations with patterns of independent variables. Results showed that soil carbon is related linearly to soil texture, increasing as clay content increases, that soil carbon stores and turnover time are related to mean annual temperature by negative exponential functions, and that heterotrophic respiration originates from recent detritus (∼50%), microbial turnover (∼30%), and soil organic matter (∼20%) with modest variations between forest and grassland ecosystems. The effect of changing temperature on soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by Century is dSOC/dT= 183e−0.034T. Global extrapolation of this relationship leads to an estimated sensitivity of soil C storage to a temperature of −11.1 Pg° C−1, excluding extreme arid and organic soils. In Century, net primary production (NPP) and soil carbon are closely coupled through the N cycle, so that as temperatures increase, accelerated N release first results in fertilization responses, increasing C inputs. The Century-predicted effect of temperature on carbon storage is modified by as much as 100% by the N cycle feedback. Century-estimated soil C sensitivity (−11.1 Pg° C−1) is similar to losses predicted with a simple data-based calculation (−14.1 Pg° C−1). Inclusion of the N cycle is important for even first-order predictions of terrestrial carbon balance. If the NPP-SOC feedback is disrupted by land use or other disturbances, then SOC sensitivity can greatly exceed that estimated in our simulations. Century results further suggest that if climate change results in drying of organic soils (peats), soil carbon loss rates can be high

Integrating multibeam backscatter angular response, mosaic and bathymetry data for benthic habitat mapping

Multibeam echosounders (MBES) are increasingly becoming the tool of choice for marine habitat mapping applications. In turn, the rapid expansion of habitat mapping studies has resulted in a need for automated classification techniques to efficiently map benthic habitats, assess confidence in model outputs, and evaluate the importance of variables driving the patterns observed. The benthic habitat characterisation process often involves the analysis of MBES bathymetry, backscatter mosaic or angular response with observation data providing ground truth. However, studies that make use of the full range of MBES outputs within a single classification process are limited. We present an approach that integrates backscatter angular response with MBES bathymetry, backscatter mosaic and their derivatives in a classification process using a Random Forests (RF) machine-learning algorithm to predict the distribution of benthic biological habitats. This approach includes a method of deriving statistical features from backscatter angular response curves created from MBES data collated within homogeneous regions of a backscatter mosaic. Using the RF algorithm we assess the relative importance of each variable in order to optimise the classification process and simplify models applied. The results showed that the inclusion of the angular response features in the classification process improved the accuracy of the final habitat maps from 88.5% to 93.6%. The RF algorithm identified bathymetry and the angular response mean as the two most important predictors. However, the highest classification rates were only obtained after incorporating additional features derived from bathymetry and the backscatter mosaic. The angular response features were found to be more important to the classification process compared to the backscatter mosaic features. This analysis indicates that integrating angular response information with bathymetry and the backscatter mosaic, along with their derivatives, constitutes an important improvement for studying the distribution of benthic habitats, which is necessary for effective marine spatial planning and resource managemen

Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling

We used the terrestrial ecosystem model “Century” to evaluate the relative roles of water and nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity, spatially and in response to climate variability. Within ecology, there has been considerable confusion and controversy over the large-scale significance of limitation of net primary production (NPP) by nutrients versus biophysical quantities (e.g., heat, water, and sunlight) with considerable evidence supporting both views. The Century model, run to a quasi-steady state condition, predicts “equilibration” of water with nutrient limitation, because carbon fixation and nitrogen fluxes (inputs and losses) are controlled by water fluxes, and the capture of nitrogen into organic matter is governed by carbon fixation. Patterns in the coupled water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles are modified substantially by ecosystem type or species-specific controls over resource use efficiency (water and nitrogen used per unit NPP), detrital chemistry, and soil water holding capacity. We also examined the coupling between water and nutrients during several temperature perturbation experiments. Model experiments forced by satellite-observed temperatures suggest that climate anomalies can result in significant changes to terrestrial carbon dynamics. The cooling associated with the Mount Pinatubo eruption aerosol injection may have transiently increased terrestrial carbon storage. However, because processes in the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles have different response times, model behavior during the return to steady state following perturbation was complex and extended for decades after 1- to 5-year perturbations. Thus consequences of climate anomalies are influenced by the climatic conditions of the preceding years, and climate-carbon correlations may not be simple to interpret

Development of simplified ecosystem models for applications in Earth system studies: The Century experience

During the past decade, a growing need to conduct regional assessments of long-term trends of ecosystem behavior and the technology to meet this need have converged. The Century model is the product of research efforts initially intended to develop a general model of plant-soil ecosystem dynamics for the North American central grasslands. This model is now being used to simulate plant production, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter dynamics for grassland, crop, forest, and shrub ecosystems in various regions of the world, including temperate and tropical ecosystems. This paper will focus on the philosophical approach used to develop the structure of Century. The steps included were model simplification, parameterization, and testing. In addition, the importance of acquiring regional data bases for model testing and the present regional application of Century in the Great Plains, which focus on regional ecosystem dynamics and the effect of altering environmental conditions, are discussed

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Climatic versus biotic constraints on carbon and water fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine ecosystems

We investigated the relative importance of climatic versus biotic controls on gross primary production (GPP) and water vapor fluxes in seasonally drought-affected ponderosa pine forests. The study was conducted in young (YS), mature (MS), and old stands (OS) over 4 years at the AmeriFlux Metolius sites. Model simulations showed that interannual variation of GPP did not follow the same trends as precipitation, and effects of climatic variation were smallest at the OS (50%), and intermediate at the YS (<20%). In the young, developing stand, interannual variation in leaf area has larger effects on fluxes than climate, although leaf area is a function of climate in that climate can interact with age-related shifts in carbon allocation and affect whole-tree hydraulic conductance. Older forests, with well-established root systems, appear to be better buffered from effects of seasonal drought and interannual climatic variation. Interannual variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was also lowest at the OS, where NEE is controlled more by interannual variation of ecosystem respiration, 70% of which is from soil, than by the variation of GPP, whereas variation in GPP is the primary reason for interannual changes in NEE at the YS and MS. Across spatially heterogeneous landscapes with high frequency of younger stands resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances, interannual climatic variation and change in leaf area are likely to result in large interannual variation in GPP and NEE

The effects of CO2, climate and land-use on terrestrial carbon balance, 1920-1992: An analysis with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system

Shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra : Betula nana effects on above- and belowground litter decomposition

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 1361–1376, doi:10.1002/ecy.1790.Rapid arctic vegetation change as a result of global warming includes an increase in the cover and biomass of deciduous shrubs. Increases in shrub abundance will result in a proportional increase of shrub litter in the litter community, potentially affecting carbon turnover rates in arctic ecosystems. We investigated the effects of leaf and root litter of a deciduous shrub, Betula nana, on decomposition, by examining species-specific decomposition patterns, as well as effects of Betula litter on the decomposition of other species. We conducted a 2-yr decomposition experiment in moist acidic tundra in northern Alaska, where we decomposed three tundra species (Vaccinium vitis-idaea, Rhododendron palustre, and Eriophorum vaginatum) alone and in combination with Betula litter. Decomposition patterns for leaf and root litter were determined using three different measures of decomposition (mass loss, respiration, extracellular enzyme activity). We report faster decomposition of Betula leaf litter compared to other species, with support for species differences coming from all three measures of decomposition. Mixing effects were less consistent among the measures, with negative mixing effects shown only for mass loss. In contrast, there were few species differences or mixing effects for root decomposition. Overall, we attribute longer-term litter mass loss patterns to patterns created by early decomposition processes in the first winter. We note numerous differences for species patterns between leaf and root decomposition, indicating that conclusions from leaf litter experiments should not be extrapolated to below-ground decomposition. The high decomposition rates of Betula leaf litter aboveground, and relatively similar decomposition rates of multiple species below, suggest a potential for increases in turnover in the fast-decomposing carbon pool of leaves and fine roots as the dominance of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic increases, but this outcome may be tempered by negative litter mixing effects during the early stages of encroachment.National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OPP-0909507, OPP-0807639, ARC-0806451; Arctic LTER Project. Grant Number: DEB-102684