Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961–1990) demonstrated the models’ skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future’ weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2756–2770, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x.Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of 5 general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adelie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adelie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.MH acknowledges support through the National Science Foundation. HC acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-0816514, from the WHOI Arctic Research Initiative, and from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Energy technology strategies for carbon dioxide mitigation and sustainable development

This paper analyzes a set of global energy-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. The set includes non-climate-policy scenarios that are part of the recent Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We apply climate policies to some of these scenarios to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv). In particular, we analyze the robustness of technology portfolios under a wide range of possible future socioeconomic and technological outcomes. Clearly, the baseline assumptions determine the choice and costs of optimal emissions mitigation portfolios. The robustness analysis suggests that traditional electricity generation technologies based on fossil fuels are phased-out across all scenarios by 2100, with gas combined-cycle bridging the transition to more advanced fossil and zero-carbon technologies. Hydrogen fuel cells dominate the power sector in the sustainable development scenarios. In the transport sector, oil products will be phased-out but their future substitutes remain uncertain. Policies should preferably target a combination of sustainable development and accelerated technological change