Strategies for maximizing the social benefit from the exploitation of gypsum mineral resource of Thailand

The study begins by investigating Thailand’s administration of its mineral resources and those of some other leading mineral-exporting countries for comparison. The notion of ‘resource curse’, which affects many resource-rich countries, and an analysis how Thailand fought and won the ‘curse’ is critically explored. The principle of sustainable development and its implication to Thailand are presented, together with various computed indicators of sustainable development for Thailand. The role of mineral resources and Hotelling’s model in the context of sustainable development are discussed. The essence of this study is the development of economic models to determine the optimal extraction paths of Thailand’s gypsum resources based on Hotelling's concept of maximizing Net Present Value (NPV) of benefits accrued to the country. This study finds that under all assumptions and all scenarios, at a certain point in time, Thailand should stop exporting its gypsum and devote the remainder of its gypsum resources to domestic consumption only. In addition, Thailand should push gypsum price up to a certain level. The model determining gypsum consumption in Thailand and some countries imported gypsum from Thailand, which are the basis to determine the optimal extraction paths of gypsum in Thailand, is also developed. It shows that the price of gypsum had no effect on its consumption. In other words, the demand for gypsum might be highly inelastic. Finally, the long-term policies for Thailand to manage its gypsum resource are recommended.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceDepartment of Primary Industries and Mines, Ministry of Industry, ThailandGBUnited Kingdo

The economic value of Albertine Rift Forests : applications in policy and programming

The objective of this thesis is to quantitatively understand the economic performance of protected area management strategies for forest and biodiversity conservation. Examples such as integrated conservation and development and eco tourism are assessed in terms of their ability to deliver on welfare benefits to local communities, and an assessment of the opportunity costs of forest conservation as a land use strategy. In addition the contribution of forest conservation in protected areas can make to poverty alleviation and economic development is also examined. The geographical focus of this study is the Albertine Rift region of East and Central Africa, stretching north from the southern end of Lake Tanganyika through the spine of Africa to the northern end of Lake Albert. The Albertine Rift is one of Africa’s most important landscapes for the conservation of forests and biodiversity. The overarching objective is addressed using a series of case studies empirically valuing the opportunity costs of conserving forests in a selection of sites in the central part of the Albertine Rift. The success of conservation is most often measured against progress in reducing habitat or species loss and not often in terms of the contribution of the protected area to poverty alleviation and local economic development. Achieving improvements of conservation strategies in the social dimension requires objective evidence on their effects. Economic valuation of protected area resources provides a quantitative means of assessing the promise and performance of conservation policies in achieving welfare benefits to local communities. This thesis provides three case studies each addressing current valuation and social issues in conservation and sets them in a context of managing protected areas in the broad dynamic setting of poverty alleviation and economic growth from a developing economy perspective. In addition two of the empirical studies are as concerned with methodological enquiry and the performance of novel environmental economic valuation techniques, such as the contingent valuation and choice modelling approaches, as the application of results to conservation questions. The empirical studies show that the benefits to local households and communities from their local forests may be greater than at first perceived. Across all protected area categories, biomes and income groups, households derived significant amounts of their overall income from their local protected area with large proportions of the value of goods harvested from forests being consumed in the home. Amongst income groups high income households often appropriated a greater share of the value of forest goods. There was no significant difference found between the household consumption and the sale of protected area products between income groups. The findings indicate that imposing reductions in forest use may increase poverty amongst local people whilst increasing household income will not necessarily reduce forest exploitation. This indicates that community conservation and integrated conservation and development programmes must target the poor forest adjacent households more actively to ensure poverty alleviation, whilst providing improved protection and law enforcement for effective conservation. It is also shown that biodiversity conservation can have an economic return through mountain gorilla eco-tourism. Findings show a disparity between what constitutes eco-tourism and the real values of tourists towards biodiversity conservation and local social benefits from protected areas. Despite showing a high marginal utility for biodiversity conservation, consumers are unwilling to pay for local community benefits from tourism as part of the permit price to view gorillas. Clearly the link between successful conservation and the welfare status of local communities is not sufficiently established in the minds of consumers to influence their spending decisions. The challenges of effectively mobilising communities to protect biodiversity are discussed in the context of the variable impacts of integrated conservation and development programs over the last three decades. Direct payment payments for conservation services schemes are discussed as an innovative tool to add to the gamut of community approaches currently on offer. Payments for conservation schemes are viewed with cautious optimism in terms of their possibility for success. Despite their allure of being more economically and socially efficient at achieving welfare and conservation objectives, given the complex nature of any society, no less research in to social and economic dynamics of protected area use by local communities would be needed to ensure success of such schemes. However, the overwhelming majority of benefits form protected areas are tied up in ecosystem services values. Mechanisms to generate funding and distribute payments for these benefits in terms of offsetting the local opportunity costs are essential to change local behavior and reduce forest degradation and destruction.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceEconomic and Social Research CouncilNatural Environment Research CouncilGBUnited Kingdo

Identifying null meta-analyses that are ripe for updating

BACKGROUND: As an increasingly large number of meta-analyses are published, quantitative methods are needed to help clinicians and systematic review teams determine when meta-analyses are not up to date. METHODS: We propose new methods for determining when non-significant meta-analytic results might be overturned, based on a prediction of the number of participants required in new studies. To guide decision making, we introduce the "new participant ratio", the ratio of the actual number of participants in new studies to the predicted number required to obtain statistical significance. A simulation study was conducted to study the performance of our methods and a real meta-analysis provides further evidence. RESULTS: In our three simulation configurations, our diagnostic test for determining whether a meta-analysis is out of date had sensitivity of 55%, 62%, and 49% with corresponding specificity of 85%, 80%, and 90% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations suggest that our methods are able to detect out-of-date meta-analyses. These quick and approximate methods show promise for use by systematic review teams to help decide whether to commit the considerable resources required to update a meta-analysis. Further investigation and evaluation of the methods is required before they can be recommended for general use

The topobiology of chemical elements in seabird feathers

The highly organized morphogenesis of bird feathers holds important phylo- and ontogenetic information on the evolution of birds, organogenesis, tissue regeneration, and the health status of individual animals. Altered topobiological patterns are regularly used as retrospective evidence for disturbed developmental trajectories due to the past exposure to environmental stressors. Using the most advanced high-resolution (5-70 μm) X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM), we describe in the feathers from three species of Procellariiformes hitherto unknown, depositions of elements (Zn, Ca, Br, Cu, Fe) that are independent of pigmentation or any underlying variation in density or polymer structure. In the case of Zn, the pattern across several species of Procellariiformes, but not other species, consisted of highly regular bands of Zn numbering 30-32, which may reflect the estimated number of days of active feather growth or the duration of the moult period. Thus, speculatively, the highly consistent Zn pattern might be the result of a so far unknown diurnal systemic regulation rather than local heterogeneity amongst the follicular stem cells

The Genetic Interpretation of Area under the ROC Curve in Genomic Profiling

Genome-wide association studies in human populations have facilitated the creation of genomic profiles which combine the effects of many associated genetic variants to predict risk of disease. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is a well established measure for determining the efficacy of tests in correctly classifying diseased and non-diseased individuals. We use quantitative genetics theory to provide insight into the genetic interpretation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) when the test classifier is a predictor of genetic risk. Even when the proportion of genetic variance explained by the test is 100%, there is a maximum value for AUC that depends on the genetic epidemiology of the disease, i.e. either the sibling recurrence risk or heritability and disease prevalence. We derive an equation relating maximum AUC to heritability and disease prevalence. The expression can be reversed to calculate the proportion of genetic variance explained given AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability. We use published estimates of disease prevalence and sibling recurrence risk for 17 complex genetic diseases to calculate the proportion of genetic variance that a test must explain to achieve AUC = 0.75; this varied from 0.10 to 0.74. We provide a genetic interpretation of AUC for use with predictors of genetic risk based on genomic profiles. We provide a strategy to estimate proportion of genetic variance explained on the liability scale from estimates of AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability (or sibling recurrence risk) available as an online calculator

A Cis-Regulatory Map of the Drosophila Genome

Systematic annotation of gene regulatory elements is a major challenge in genome science. Direct mapping of chromatin modification marks and transcriptional factor binding sites genome-wide1, 2 has successfully identified specific subtypes of regulatory elements3. In Drosophila several pioneering studies have provided genome-wide identification of Polycomb response elements4, chromatin states5, transcription factor binding sites6, 7, 8, 9, RNA polymerase II regulation8 and insulator elements10; however, comprehensive annotation of the regulatory genome remains a significant challenge. Here we describe results from the modENCODE cis-regulatory annotation project. We produced a map of the Drosophila melanogaster regulatory genome on the basis of more than 300 chromatin immunoprecipitation data sets for eight chromatin features, five histone deacetylases and thirty-eight site-specific transcription factors at different stages of development. Using these data we inferred more than 20,000 candidate regulatory elements and validated a subset of predictions for promoters, enhancers and insulators in vivo. We identified also nearly 2,000 genomic regions of dense transcription factor binding associated with chromatin activity and accessibility. We discovered hundreds of new transcription factor co-binding relationships and defined a transcription factor network with over 800 potential regulatory relationships

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation