The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty

Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7% using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8% reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20% of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17Wm-2 weaker (less negative) with 95% credible values ranging from-2:51 to-1:17Wm-2 (standard deviation of-2:18 to-1:46Wm-2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. © 2020 Laser Institute of America. All rights reserved

Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover

With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary albedo. However, because it is unclear how aerosols influence clouds, especially cloud cover, both climate projections and the effectiveness of marine cloud brightening remain uncertain. Here we use satellite observations of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii to quantify the aerosol fingerprint on tropical marine clouds. We observe a large enhancement in reflected sunlight, mainly due to an aerosol-induced increase in cloud cover. This observed strong negative aerosol forcing suggests that the current level of global warming is driven by a weaker net radiative forcing than previously thought, arising from the competing effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This implies a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to radiative forcing and therefore a larger warming response to both rising greenhouse gas concentrations and reductions in atmospheric aerosols due to air quality measures. However, our findings also indicate that mitigation of global warming via marine cloud brightening is plausible and is most effective in humid and stable conditions in the tropics where solar radiation is strong

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change

Past changes in the North Atlantic storm track driven by insolation and sea-ice forcing

Changes in the location of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks may cause significant societal and economic impacts under future climate change, but projections of future changes are highly uncertain and drivers of long-term changes are poorly understood. Here we develop a late Holocene storminess reconstruction from northwest Spain and combine this with an equivalent record from the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, to measure changes in the dominant latitudinal position of the storm track. The north-south index shows that storm tracks moved from a southern position to higher latitudes over the past 4000 yr, likely driven by a change from meridional to zonal atmospheric circulation, associated with a negative to positive North Atlantic Oscillation shift. We suggest that gradual polar cooling (caused by decreasing solar insolation in summer and amplified by sea-ice feedbacks) and mid-latitude warming (caused by increasing winter insolation) drove a steepening of the winter latitudinal temperature gradient through the late Holocene, resulting in the observed change to a more northern winter storm track. Our findings provide paleoclimate support for observational and modeling studies that link changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient and sea-ice extent to the strength and shape of the circumpolar vortex. Together this evidence now suggests that North Atlantic winter storm tracks may shift southward under future warming as sea-ice extent decreases and the mid- to high-latitude temperature gradient decreases, with storms increasingly affecting southern Europe

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6

Earth System models enable a broad range of climate interactions that physical climate models are unable to simulate. However, the extent to which adding Earth System components changes or improves the simulation of the physical climate is not well understood. Here we present a broad multi-variate evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in historical simulations of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6. In particular, we focus on the mean state and the decadal timescale evolution of important variables that span the North Atlantic Climate system. In general, UKESM1 performs well and realistically simulates many aspects of the North Atlantic climate system. Like the physical version of the model, we find that changes in external forcing, and particularly aerosol forcing, are an important driver of multi-decadal change in UKESM1, especially for Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However, many of the shortcomings identified are similar to common biases found in physical climate models, including the physical climate model that underpins UKESM1. For example, the summer jet is too weak and too far poleward; decadal variability in the winter jet is underestimated; intra-seasonal stratospheric polar vortex variability is poorly represented; and Arctic sea ice is too thick. Forced shortwave changes may be also too strong in UKESM1, which, given the important role of historical aerosol forcing in shaping the evolution of the North Atlantic in UKESM1, motivates further investigation. Therefore, physical model development, alongside Earth System development, remains crucial in order to improve climate simulations

The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm−3 and 24 cm−3. By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m−2 to −0.6 W⋅m−2. The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change