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The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty
Authors
Andrea Baccarini
Ken S. Carslaw
+9 more
Daniel P. Grosvenor
Martin Gysel-Beer
Silvia Henning
Jill S. Johnson
Leighton A. Regayre
Julia Schmale
Frank Stratmann
Christian Tatzelt
Masaru Yoshioka
Publication date
1 January 2020
Publisher
Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU
Doi
Cite
Abstract
Aerosol measurements over the Southern Ocean are used to constrain aerosol-cloud interaction radiative forcing (RFaci) uncertainty in a global climate model. Forcing uncertainty is quantified using 1 million climate model variants that sample the uncertainty in nearly 30 model parameters. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei and other aerosol properties from an Antarctic circumnavigation expedition strongly constrain natural aerosol emissions: default sea spray emissions need to be increased by around a factor of 3 to be consistent with measurements. Forcing uncertainty is reduced by around 7% using this set of several hundred measurements, which is comparable to the 8% reduction achieved using a diverse and extensive set of over 9000 predominantly Northern Hemisphere measurements. When Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurements are combined, uncertainty in RFaci is reduced by 21 %, and the strongest 20% of forcing values are ruled out as implausible. In this combined constraint, observationally plausible RFaci is around 0.17Wm-2 weaker (less negative) with 95% credible values ranging from-2:51 to-1:17Wm-2 (standard deviation of-2:18 to-1:46Wm-2). The Southern Ocean and Northern Hemisphere measurement datasets are complementary because they constrain different processes. These results highlight the value of remote marine aerosol measurements. © 2020 Laser Institute of America. All rights reserved
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Last time updated on 23/07/2022