Information Processing Constraints and Asset Mispricing

I analyse a series of natural quasi-experiments - centred on betting exchange data on the Wimbledon Tennis Championships - to determine whether information processing constraints are partially responsible for mispricing in asset markets. I find that the arrival of information during each match leads to substantial mispricing between two equivalent assets, and that part of this mispricing can be attributed to differences in the frequency with which the two prices are updated inplay. This suggests that information processing constraints force the periodic neglect of one of the assets, thereby causing substantial, albeit temporary, mispricing in this simple asset market

Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions

In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial units, but rather as highly interrelated small open economies. These spatial interrelations must be considered also when the aim is to forecast economic variables. For example, policy makers need accurate forecasts of the unemployment evolution in order to design short- or long-run local welfare policies. These predictions should then consider the spatial interrelations and dynamics of regional unemployment. In addition, a number of papers have demonstrated the improvement in the reliability of long-run forecasts when spatial dependence is accounted for. We estimate a heterogeneouscoefficients dynamic panel model employing a spatial filter in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment, as well as a spatial vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model. We compare the short-run forecasting performance of these methods, and in particular, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in order to investigate if different number and size of the administrative regions influence their relative forecasting performance. We compute short-run unemployment forecasts in two countries with different administrative territorial divisions and data frequency: Switzerland (26 regions, monthly data for 34 years) and Spain (47 regions, quarterly data for 32 years)

Using non-nutritive sucking to support feeding development for premature infants: A commentary on approaches and current practice

Non-nutritive sucking is often used with premature infants by either using a pacifier or an expressed breast nipple to support the introduction and development of early oral feeding. The pattern of non-nutritive sucking is distinct in that it involves two sucks per second in contrast to nutritive sucking which is one suck per second. Although some literature has identified that non-nutritive sucking has some benefit for the premature infant’s feeding development, it is not entirely clear why such an approach is helpful as neurologically, activation of non-nutritive and nutritive skills are different. A summary is presented of the main approaches that use non-nutritive sucking with reference to the literature. This paper also considers other factors and beneficial approaches to managing the introduction of infant feeding. These are: the infant’s toleration of enteral feeds pre oral trials, overall development and gestational age when introducing oral experiences, developing swallowing skills before sucking, physiological stability, health status, as well as the development and interpretation of infant oral readiness signs and early communication

Stochastic Modelling Approach to the Incubation Time of Prionic Diseases

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies like the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans are neurodegenerative diseases for which prions are the attributed pathogenic agents. A widely accepted theory assumes that prion replication is due to a direct interaction between the pathologic (PrPsc) form and the host encoded (PrPc) conformation, in a kind of an autocatalytic process. Here we show that the overall features of the incubation time of prion diseases are readily obtained if the prion reaction is described by a simple mean-field model. An analytical expression for the incubation time distribution then follows by associating the rate constant to a stochastic variable log normally distributed. The incubation time distribution is then also shown to be log normal and fits the observed BSE data very well. The basic ideas of the theoretical model are then incorporated in a cellular automata model. The computer simulation results yield the correct BSE incubation time distribution at low densities of the host encoded protein

Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation

Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables, the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing for autocorrelation in data sampled from the nodes of a network, motivated by social network applications. We demonstrate that our proposed statistic for categorical variables can both be used in the spatial and network setting

A heteroskedastic error covariance matrix estimator using a first-order conditional autoregressive Markov simulation for deriving asympotical efficient estimates from ecological sampled Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat covariates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autoregressive regression coefficients for <it>Anopheles arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat models are usually assessed using global error techniques and are reported as error covariance matrices. A global statistic, however, will summarize error estimates from multiple habitat locations. This makes it difficult to identify where there are clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats of acceptable prediction. It is therefore useful to conduct some form of spatial error analysis to detect clusters of <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on uncertainty residuals from individual sampled habitats. In this research, a method of error estimation for spatial simulation models was demonstrated using autocorrelation indices and eigenfunction spatial filters to distinguish among the effects of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic simulation of ecological sampled <it>Anopheles </it>aquatic habitat covariates. A test for diagnostic checking error residuals in an <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat model may enable intervention efforts targeting productive habitats clusters, based on larval/pupal productivity, by using the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates from a residual autocovariance matrix. The models considered in this research extends a normal regression analysis previously considered in the literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Field and remote-sampled data were collected during July 2006 to December 2007 in Karima rice-village complex in Mwea, Kenya. SAS 9.1.4^®was used to explore univariate statistics, correlations, distributions, and to generate global autocorrelation statistics from the ecological sampled datasets. A local autocorrelation index was also generated using spatial covariance parameters (i.e., Moran's Indices) in a SAS/GIS^®database. The Moran's statistic was decomposed into orthogonal and uncorrelated synthetic map pattern components using a Poisson model with a gamma-distributed mean (i.e. negative binomial regression). The eigenfunction values from the spatial configuration matrices were then used to define expectations for prior distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. A set of posterior means were defined in WinBUGS 1.4.3^®. After the model had converged, samples from the conditional distributions were used to summarize the posterior distribution of the parameters. Thereafter, a spatial residual trend analyses was used to evaluate variance uncertainty propagation in the model using an autocovariance error matrix.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By specifying coefficient estimates in a Bayesian framework, the covariate number of tillers was found to be a significant predictor, positively associated with <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats. The spatial filter models accounted for approximately 19% redundant locational information in the ecological sampled <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitat data. In the residual error estimation model there was significant positive autocorrelation (i.e., clustering of habitats in geographic space) based on log-transformed larval/pupal data and the sampled covariate depth of habitat.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An autocorrelation error covariance matrix and a spatial filter analyses can prioritize mosquito control strategies by providing a computationally attractive and feasible description of variance uncertainty estimates for correctly identifying clusters of prolific <it>An. arabiensis </it>aquatic habitats based on larval/pupal productivity.</p

Stochastic Eulerian Lagrangian Methods for Fluid-Structure Interactions with Thermal Fluctuations

We present approaches for the study of fluid-structure interactions subject to thermal fluctuations. A mixed mechanical description is utilized combining Eulerian and Lagrangian reference frames. We establish general conditions for operators coupling these descriptions. Stochastic driving fields for the formalism are derived using principles from statistical mechanics. The stochastic differential equations of the formalism are found to exhibit significant stiffness in some physical regimes. To cope with this issue, we derive reduced stochastic differential equations for several physical regimes. We also present stochastic numerical methods for each regime to approximate the fluid-structure dynamics and to generate efficiently the required stochastic driving fields. To validate the methodology in each regime, we perform analysis of the invariant probability distribution of the stochastic dynamics of the fluid-structure formalism. We compare this analysis with results from statistical mechanics. To further demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, we perform computational studies for spherical particles having translational and rotational degrees of freedom. We compare these studies with results from fluid mechanics. The presented approach provides for fluid-structure systems a set of rather general computational methods for treating consistently structure mechanics, hydrodynamic coupling, and thermal fluctuations.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

A Comprehensive Analysis of Electric Dipole Moment Constraints on CP-violating Phases in the MSSM

We analyze the constraints placed on individual, flavor diagonal CP-violating phases in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) by current experimental bounds on the electric dipole moments (EDMs) of the neutron, Thallium, and Mercury atoms. We identify the four CP-violating phases that are individually highly constrained by current EDM bounds, and we explore how these phases and correlations among them are constrained by current EDM limits. We also analyze the prospective implications of the next generation of EDM experiments. We point out that all other CP-violating phases in the MSSM are not nearly as tightly constrained by limits on the size of EDMs. We emphasize that a rich set of phenomenological consequences is potentially associated with these generically large EDM-allowed phases, ranging from B physics, electroweak baryogenesis, and signals of CP-violation at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and at future linear colliders. Our numerical study takes into account the complete set of contributions from one- and two-loop EDMs of the electron and quarks, one- and two-loop Chromo-EDMs of quarks, the Weinberg 3-gluon operator, and dominant 4-fermion CP-odd operator contributions, including contributions which are both included and not included yet in the CPsuperH2.0 package. We also introduce an open-source numerical package, 2LEDM, which provides the complete set of two-loop electroweak diagrams contributing to the electric dipole moments of leptons and quarks.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures; v2: references added, minor change

A sobrevivência como foco: cotidiano e perspectiva de futuro dos catadores de materiais recicláveis.

DOI: não consta, por isso foi disponibilizado o link de acesso.Tem-se o excesso de lixo como um dos mais graves problemas ambientais da atualidade, sendo urgente a necessidade de se encontrarem soluções para seu destino final e minimizar os problemas sociais e ambientais por ele acarretados. Nesse contexto estão os catadores de material reciclável, num cenário de exclusão e marginalização, tendo o lixo como principal meio de sobrevivência. Este estudo foi realizado a partir de uma perspectiva qualitativa voltada para o cotidiano dos catadores que trabalham coletando material reciclável em Ipatinga, MG. Os objetivos foram identificar e analisar o cotidiano dos catadores, bem como suas perspectivas quanto ao futuro. Foram utilizados como técnica de coleta e construção de dados o questionário, a entrevista semiestruturada e a observação direta. Para interpretá-los, utilizou-se a análise de conteúdo. O cotidiano do catador é desgastante, e catar lixo é uma estratégia relacionada à capacidade de inventar formas de sobrevivência num mundo que passa a condenar à marginalidade os situados fora do mercado de trabalho.There have been excess of garbage as one of the most serious environmental problems of present, and the urgent need to find solutions to their final destination and to minimize the social and environmental problems entailed by it. In this context are the collectors of recyclable materials, a scenario of exclusion and marginalization, and the garbage as the main means of survival. This study was conducted from a qualitative perspective, focused on the daily lives of scavengers who work collecting recyclables in Ipatinga-MG. The objective was to identify and analyze the daily lives of scavengers and their prospects for the future. Was used as a technique for data collection and construction of the questionnaire, semi-structured interviews and direct observation. To interpret them we used the content analysis. The collector is exhausting routine of picking up trash and is a strategy related to the ability to invent ways of survival in a world that is condemning the eradication of the outside labor market

A Geometric Approach to CP Violation: Applications to the MCPMFV SUSY Model

We analyze the constraints imposed by experimental upper limits on electric dipole moments (EDMs) within the Maximally CP- and Minimally Flavour-Violating (MCPMFV) version of the MSSM. Since the MCPMFV scenario has 6 non-standard CP-violating phases, in addition to the CP-odd QCD vacuum phase \theta_QCD, cancellations may occur among the CP-violating contributions to the three measured EDMs, those of the Thallium, neutron and Mercury, leaving open the possibility of relatively large values of the other CP-violating observables. We develop a novel geometric method that uses the small-phase approximation as a starting point, takes the existing EDM constraints into account, and enables us to find maximal values of other CP-violating observables, such as the EDMs of the Deuteron and muon, the CP-violating asymmetry in b --> s \gamma decay, and the B_s mixing phase. We apply this geometric method to provide upper limits on these observables within specific benchmark supersymmetric scenarios, including extensions that allow for a non-zero \theta_QCD.Comment: 34 pages, 16 eps figures, to appear in JHE