Enumeration of meanders and Masur-Veech volumes

A meander is a topological configuration of a line and a simple closed curve in the plane (or a pair of simple closed curves on the 2-sphere) intersecting transversally. Meanders can be traced back to H. Poincaré and naturally appear in various areas of mathematics, theoretical physics and computational biology (in particular, they provide a model of polymer folding). Enumeration of meanders is an important open problem. The number of meanders with 2N crossings grows exponentially when N grows, but the long-standing problem on the precise asymptotics is still out of reach. We show that the situation becomes more tractable if one additionally fixes the topological type (or the total number of minimal arcs) of a meander. Then we are able to derive simple asymptotic formulas for the numbers of meanders as N tends to infinity. We also compute the asymptotic probability of getting a simple closed curve on a sphere by identifying the endpoints of two arc systems (one on each of the two hemispheres) along the common equator. The new tools we bring to bear are based on interpretation of meanders as square-tiled surfaces with one horizontal and one vertical cylinder. The proofs combine recent results on Masur–Veech volumes of moduli spaces of meromorphic quadratic differentials in genus zero with our new observation that horizontal and vertical separatrix diagrams of integer quadratic differentials are asymptotically uncorrelated. The additional combinatorial constraints we impose in this article yield explicit polynomial asymptotics

Reexamining the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (<2,500 g) is a strong predictor of infant mortality. Yet low birth weight, in isolation, is uninformative since it is comprised of two intertwined components: preterm delivery and reduced fetal growth. Through nonparametric logistic regression models, we examine the effects of gestational age, fetal growth, and maternal smoking on neonatal mortality. METHODS: We derived data on over 10 million singleton live births delivered at ≥ 24 weeks from the 1998–2000 U.S. natality data files. Nonparametric multivariable logistic regression based on generalized additive models was used to examine neonatal mortality (deaths within the first 28 days) in relation to fetal growth (gestational age-specific standardized birth weight), gestational age, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. All analyses were further adjusted for the confounding effects due to maternal age and gravidity. RESULTS: The relationship between standardized birth weight and neonatal mortality is nonlinear; mortality is high at low z-score birth weights, drops precipitously with increasing z-score birth weight, and begins to flatten for heavier infants. Gestational age is also strongly associated with mortality, with patterns similar to those of z-score birth weight. Although the direct effect of smoking on neonatal mortality is weak, its effects (on mortality) appear to be largely mediated through reduced fetal growth and, to a lesser extent, through shortened gestation. In fact, the association between smoking and reduced fetal growth gets stronger as pregnancies approach term. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides important insights regarding the combined effects of fetal growth, gestational age, and smoking on neonatal mortality. The findings suggest that the effect of maternal smoking on neonatal mortality is largely mediated through reduced fetal growth

CD4/CD8 Ratio and the Risk of Kaposi Sarcoma or Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the Context of Efficiently Treated Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Infection: A Collaborative Analysis of 20 European Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND: A persistently low CD4/CD8 ratio has been reported to inversely correlate with the risk of non-AIDS defining cancer in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) efficiently treated by combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We evaluated the impact of the CD4/CD8 ratio on the risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) or non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), still among the most frequent cancers in treated PLWH. METHODS: PLWH from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) were included if they achieved virological control (viral load ≤ 500 copies/mL) within 9 months following cART and without previous KS/LNH diagnosis. Cox models were used to identify factors associated with KS or NHL risk, in all participants and those with CD4 ≥ 500/mm3 at virological control. We analyzed the CD4/CD8 ratio, CD4 count and CD8 count as time-dependent variables, using spline transformations. RESULTS: We included 56 708 PLWH, enrolled between 2000 and 2014. At virological control, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) CD4 count, CD8 count, and CD4/CD8 ratio were 414 (296-552)/mm3, 936 (670-1304)/mm3, and 0.43 (0.28-0.65), respectively. Overall, 221 KS and 187 NHL were diagnosed 9 (2-37) and 18 (7-42) months after virological control. Low CD4/CD8 ratios were associated with KS risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.02 [95% confidence interval {CI } = 1.23-3.31]) when comparing CD4/CD8 = 0.3 to CD4/CD8 = 1) but not with NHL risk. High CD8 counts were associated with higher NHL risk (HR = 3.14 [95% CI = 1.58-6.22]) when comparing CD8 = 3000/mm3 to CD8 = 1000/mm3). Similar results with increased associations were found in PLWH with CD4 ≥ 500/mm3 at virological control (HR = 3.27 [95% CI = 1.60-6.56] for KS; HR = 5.28 [95% CI = 2.17-12.83] for NHL). CONCLUSIONS: Low CD4/CD8 ratios and high CD8 counts despite effective cART were associated with increased KS/NHL risks respectively, especially when CD4 ≥ 500/mm3

Distinct Genetic Loci Control Plasma HIV-RNA and Cellular HIV-DNA Levels in HIV-1 Infection: The ANRS Genome Wide Association 01 Study

Previous studies of the HIV-1 disease have shown that HLA and Chemokine receptor genetic variants influence disease progression and early viral load. We performed a Genome Wide Association study in a cohort of 605 HIV-1-infected seroconverters for detection of novel genetic factors that influence plasma HIV-RNA and cellular HIV-DNA levels. Most of the SNPs strongly associated with HIV-RNA levels were localised in the 6p21 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region and were in the vicinity of class I and III genes. Moreover, protective alleles for four disease-associated SNPs in the MHC locus (rs2395029, rs13199524, rs12198173 and rs3093662) were strikingly over-represented among forty-five Long Term HIV controllers. Furthermore, we show that the HIV-DNA levels (reflecting the HIV reservoir) are associated with the same four SNPs, but also with two additional SNPs on chromosome 17 (rs6503919; intergenic region flanked by the DDX40 and YPEL2 genes) and chromosome 8 (rs2575735; within the Syndecan 2 gene). Our data provide evidence that the MHC controls both HIV replication and HIV reservoir. They also indicate that two additional genomic loci may influence the HIV reservoir

Effects of Recombinant Human Interleukin 7 on T-Cell Recovery and Thymic Output in HIV-Infected Patients Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy: Results of a Phase I/IIa Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Study

Interleukin 7 induces a well-tolerated, dose-dependent, and sustained increase of CD4 T cells in human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals treated with antiretroviral therapy, through an expansion of peripheral T cells that do not express activation markers, and increases thymic output in some patients

Relationship between Regulatory T Cells and Immune Activation in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients Interrupting Antiretroviral Therapy

Persistent immune activation plays a central role in driving Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) disease progression. Whether CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) are harmful by suppressing HIV-specific immune responses and/or beneficial through a decrease in immune activation remains debatable. We analysed the relationship between proportion and number of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and immune activation in HIV-infected patients interrupting an effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Twenty-five patients were included in a substudy of a prospective multicenter trial of treatment interruption (TI) (ANRS 116). Proportions and numbers of Tregs and the proportion of activated CD4 and CD8 T cells were assessed at baseline and month 12 (M12) of TI. Specific anti-HIV CD4 and CD8 responses were investigated at baseline and M12. Non parametric univariate analyses and multivariate linear regression models were conducted. At baseline, the proportion of Tregs negatively correlated with the proportion of HLA-DR+CD8+T cells (r = −0.519). Following TI, the proportion of Tregs increased from 6.3% to 7.2% (p = 0.029); absolute numbers of Tregs decreased. The increase in the proportion of HLA-DR+CD38+CD8+T cells was significantly related to the increase in proportion of Tregs (p = 0.031). At M12, the proportion of Tregs did not negatively correlate with CD8 T-cell activation. Nevertheless, Tregs retain a suppressive function since depletion of Treg-containing CD4+CD25+ cells led to an increase in lymphoproliferative responses in most patients studied. Our data suggest that Tregs are efficient in controlling residual immune activation in patients with ART-mediated viral suppression. However, the insufficient increase in the proportion and/or the decrease in the absolute number of Tregs result in a failure to control immune activation following TI

PLoS One

BACKGROUND: The association between liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and mortality has not been fully described. In particular the effect of LSM on all-cause mortality taking sustained virological response (SVR) into account needs further study. METHODS: HIV/HCV participants in the French nation-wide, prospective, multicenter ANRS CO13 HEPAVIH cohort, with >/=1 LSM by FibroScan (FS) and a detectable HCV RNA when the first valid FS was performed were included. Cox proportional hazards models with delayed entry were performed to determine factors associated with all-cause mortality. LSM and SVR were considered as time dependent covariates. RESULTS: 1,062 patients were included from 2005 to 2015 (69.8% men, median age 45.7 years (IQR 42.4-49.1)). 21.7% had baseline LSM >12.5 kPa. Median follow-up was 4.9 years (IQR 3.2-6.1). 727 (68.5%) were ever treated for HCV: 189 of them (26.0%) achieved SVR. 76 deaths were observed (26 liver-related, 10 HIV-related, 29 non-liver-non-HIV-related, 11 of unknown cause). At the age of 50, the mortality rate was 4.5% for patients with LSM 12.5 kPa. LSM >12.5 kPa (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.35 [2.06; 5.45], p12.5 kPa was strongly associated with all-cause mortality independently of SVR and other important covariates. Our results suggest that close follow-up of these patients should remain a priority even after achieving SVR

Circulating microRNAs in sera correlate with soluble biomarkers of immune activation but do not predict mortality in ART treated individuals with HIV-1 infection: A case control study

Introduction: The use of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced HIV-1 associated morbidity and mortality. However, HIV-1 infected individuals have increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to the non-HIV-1 infected population and this appears to be related to end-organ diseases collectively referred to as Serious Non-AIDS Events (SNAEs). Circulating miRNAs are reported as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions including those that constitute SNAEs. Our study sought to investigate the potential of selected miRNAs in predicting mortality in HIV-1 infected ART treated individuals. Materials and Methods: A set of miRNAs was chosen based on published associations with human disease conditions that constitute SNAEs. This case: control study compared 126 cases (individuals who died whilst on therapy), and 247 matched controls (individuals who remained alive). Cases and controls were ART treated participants of two pivotal HIV-1 trials. The relative abundance of each miRNA in serum was measured, by RTqPCR. Associations with mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and malignancy) were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Correlations between miRNAs and CD4+ T cell count, hs-CRP, IL-6 and D-dimer were also assessed. Results: None of the selected miRNAs was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular or malignancy mortality. The levels of three miRNAs (miRs -21, -122 and -200a) correlated with IL-6 while miR-21 also correlated with D-dimer. Additionally, the abundance of miRs -31, -150 and -223, correlated with baseline CD4+ T cell count while the same three miRNAs plus miR- 145 correlated with nadir CD4+ T cell count. Discussion: No associations with mortality were found with any circulating miRNA studied. These results cast doubt onto the effectiveness of circulating miRNA as early predictors of mortality or the major underlying diseases that contribute to mortality in participants treated for HIV-1 infection

Making the headlines: EU Immigration to the UK and the wave of new racism after Brexit

This chapter explores the immigration-related topics in the news media during the EU referendum campaign in the UK (April–June 2016) and after (July–September 2016). The chapter argues that attitudes anti-EU immigration are a wave of “new(s)” racism (van Dijk 2000) in the UK and EU immigration is frequently used as an umbrella term for Eastern European immigration being often mixed with non-EU immigration and the refugee crisis. The data shows that the prevalence of negative news stories has led to a distinctive immigration-narrative, confirming the claim of Hoffner and Cohen (2013) that members of minority groups are almost always associated with violent and threatening media content

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe