A Multi-objective Exploratory Procedure for Regression Model Selection

Variable selection is recognized as one of the most critical steps in statistical modeling. The problems encountered in engineering and social sciences are commonly characterized by over-abundance of explanatory variables, non-linearities and unknown interdependencies between the regressors. An added difficulty is that the analysts may have little or no prior knowledge on the relative importance of the variables. To provide a robust method for model selection, this paper introduces the Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm for Variable Selection (MOGA-VS) that provides the user with an optimal set of regression models for a given data-set. The algorithm considers the regression problem as a two objective task, and explores the Pareto-optimal (best subset) models by preferring those models over the other which have less number of regression coefficients and better goodness of fit. The model exploration can be performed based on in-sample or generalization error minimization. The model selection is proposed to be performed in two steps. First, we generate the frontier of Pareto-optimal regression models by eliminating the dominated models without any user intervention. Second, a decision making process is executed which allows the user to choose the most preferred model using visualisations and simple metrics. The method has been evaluated on a recently published real dataset on Communities and Crime within United States.Comment: in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 24, Iss. 1, 201

Anisotropy at the end of the cosmic ray spectrum?

The starburst galaxies M82 and NGC253 have been proposed as the primary sources of cosmic rays with energies above $10^{18.7}$ eV. For energies \agt 10^{20.3} eV the model predicts strong anisotropies. We calculate the probabilities that the latter can be due to chance occurrence. For the highest energy cosmic ray events in this energy region, we find that the observed directionality has less than 1% probability of occurring due to random fluctuations. Moreover, during the first 5 years of operation at Auger, the observation of even half the predicted anisotropy has a probability of less than $10^{-5}$ to occur by chance fluctuation. Thus, this model can be subject to test at very small cost to the Auger priors budget and, whatever the outcome of that test, valuable information on the Galactic magnetic field will be obtained.Comment: Final version to be published in Physical Review

Extragalactic Sources for Ultra High Energy Cosmic Ray Nuclei

In this article we examine the hypothesis that the highest energy cosmic rays are complex nuclei from extragalactic sources. Under reasonable physical assumptions, we show that the nearby metally rich starburst galaxies (M82 and NGC 253) can produce all the events observed above the ankle. This requires diffusion of particles below $10^{20}$ eV in extragalactic magnetic fields $B \approx 15$ nG. Above $10^{19}$ eV, the model predicts the presence of significant fluxes of medium mass and heavy nuclei with small rate of change of composition. Notwithstanding, the most salient feature of the starburst-hypothesis is a slight anisotropy induced by iron debris just before the spectrum-cutoff.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. D, reference adde

Maternal distress and perceptions of infant development following extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and conventional ventilation for persistent pulmonary hypertension

Neurodevelopmental outcome and concurrent maternal distress were examined for infants who suffered persistent pulmonary hypertension at birth and were treated with either extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) ( n = 19) or conventional ventilation (CV) ( n = 15). Mothers were asked to complete inventories assessing their infant's (mean age 8.74 months) developmental growth as well as their own psychological health. Relevant sociodemographic and treatment parameters were also entered into the analysis. The results indicated that ECMO and CV infants did not differ on developmental indices and impairment rates were 15–23% respectively, similar to previous reports, in addition, ECMO and CV mothers did not differ in their reports of psychological distress. Correlational analyses revealed that length of treatment for ECMO but not CV infants significantly predicted developmental delay and maternal distress. For CV mothers, maternal distress was associated with the perception of delayed language. The results are discussed in terms of the limited morbidity associated with ECMO and CV interventions and the possible role of a ‘vulnerable child syndrome’ in understanding the maternal-infant relationship following ECMO therapy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73367/1/j.1365-2214.1995.tb00410.x.pd

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits—almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Observation of a new Xi(b) baryon

The first observation of a new b baryon via its strong decay into Xi(b)^- pi^+ (plus charge conjugates) is reported. The measurement uses a data sample of pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 inverse femtobarns. The known Xi(b)^- baryon is reconstructed via the decay chain Xi(b)^- to J/psi Xi^- to mu^+ mu^- Lambda^0 pi^-, with Lambda^0 to p pi^-. A peak is observed in the distribution of the difference between the mass of the Xi(b)^- pi^+ system and the sum of the masses of the Xi(b)^- and pi^+, with a significance exceeding five standard deviations. The mass difference of the peak is 14.84 +/- 0.74 (stat.) +/- 0.28 (syst.) MeV. The new state most likely corresponds to the J^P=3/2^+ companion of the Xi(b).Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letter