Looking ahead: forecasting and planning for the longer-range future, April 1, 2, and 3, 2005

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's spring Conference that took place during April 1, 2, and 3, 2005.The conference allowed for many highly esteemed scholars and professionals from a broad range of fields to come together to discuss strategies designed for the 21st century and beyond. The speakers and discussants covered a broad range of subjects including: long-term policy analysis, forecasting for business and investment, the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 report, Europe’s transition from the Marshal plan to the EU, forecasting global transitions, foreign policy planning, and forecasting for defense

Density-dependent body growth reduces the potential of marine reserves to enhance yields

1. Some models of marine no-take reserves predict that reserves can enhance fishery yield. However, empirical evidence of this remains inconclusive. One reason for this may be the disregard for density-dependent body growth in most models. Density-dependent body growth links the number and size of individuals, and thus could influence the biomass of fishery yield. 2. We developed an age- and size-structured model of an exploited population and analysed the effect of implementing a no-take reserve of varying size. 3. Protecting part of a population from exploitation in a no-take reserve results in a rapid build-up of biomass inside the reserve because of increased survival. However, when body growth is density-dependent it also results in reduced length at a given age within the no-take reserve because of crowding effects. This prediction is backed up by empirical observations. 4. If there is export of individuals (here larvae) from the no-take reserve, length at a given age will also decrease in the fished part of the population outside the reserve. An increase in the number of exploitable individuals thus results in decreased individual body mass. The positive effect of larval drift on fished population size and catch numbers will therefore rarely translate into an increase in equilibrium yield biomass. 5. Synthesis and applications. When body growth is density-dependent, implementation of no-take reserves affects the body size of both protected and exploitable individuals. Although reserves can have several benefits besides increasing yields, our study shows that, if density-dependent somatic effects are important, a general increase in yield biomass cannot be expected. In populations with density-dependent body growth, reserves are more likely to decrease yield biomass unless the population is severely overexploited. Analyses of the efficiency of marine reserves as a means of enhancing the yield of fisheries need to account for ecological processes, and density-dependent body growth is likely to be key